Mathmatical argument against life elsewhere in the universe
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08-07-2015, 07:49 PM (This post was last modified: 08-07-2015 07:59 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: Mathmatical argument against life elsewhere in the universe
(08-07-2015 07:00 PM)666wannabe Wrote:  Now, I'm confused. The presence of any of the factors is not on a 50/50 basis. For example, the presence of water, oxygen, etc. Then, a planet would need to be just the right distance from it's sun. Then the orbit of the planet would have to be just right so that it wouldn't come so close to it's sun that it destroyed life by burning or too distant to destroy life by freezing it. I don't know how to quantify these factors. But, you are right. My methods were flawed.

Why aren't the presence of any and all of these factors 50/50? Why aren't they all equiprobable? Even if they aren't equiprobable why can't I just take the largest sum? I ain't sure I grok it right either old man but it seems like the scale of the sample set is like asking what is the probability that given a H/T choice with equiprobable chance in a binary universe of gazillions of heads and tails, heads would only occur once. Life isolated to Earth is highly improbable.

#sigh
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08-07-2015, 10:50 PM
RE: Mathmatical argument against life elsewhere in the universe
(08-07-2015 05:27 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(08-07-2015 04:26 PM)666wannabe Wrote:  According to Stephen Hawking, there are about 200 conditions that need to be present in order for life to exist.

10^10 stars in a galaxy. 10^10 galaxies in the universe. What are the odds that those 200 conditions didn't occur again in 10^100 chances?
That's not correct.
When multiplying exponentials you add the exponent.
X^a times X^b = X^(a+b)

So 10^10 times 10^10 = 10^20

But I read somewhere that there are 10^22 stars in the observable universe which is 100 times more stars than there are grains of sand on Earth.
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09-07-2015, 12:24 AM
RE: Mathmatical argument against life elsewhere in the universe
There's life everywhere we look.

I see a rock and that is life; "the life of a rock", so to speak. It may be somewhat "inert" but, we are still able to measure it's age. Relative to this planet's age.

Life is not necessarily always the way we view it. Maybe it's quite different than we are able to comprehend.

Our species is just beginning to realize that we are in fact, just another species of animal on this planet. How many millions of years did it take us to get to this realization?

I think I'm just thinking, that life will just be ... without us thinking about it... or without us being.
***

Maybe life is somewhere. I'm not certain it matters much. But we do have to strive to encounter it. That is the best we can do for now, and the least we can do for the future.
***

Ok. I'm drinking and have no idea what I just wrote. Shy

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09-07-2015, 02:29 AM
RE: Mathmatical argument against life elsewhere in the universe
There is no such thing as "Life on earth". Everything is a figment of my imagination.

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09-07-2015, 05:14 AM
RE: Mathmatical argument against life elsewhere in the universe
I'm convinced that the "there's no other life out there" type probably don't believe there's actually other COUNTRIES out there, except where they live.....................

It just doesn't fit into their narrow little view of life.

It probably also explains why they tend to be "devout" and believe there's a guy who created the entire universe, and they're close personal friends.

....

Egotistical fucks.

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
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09-07-2015, 05:38 AM
RE: Mathmatical argument against life elsewhere in the universe
(08-07-2015 04:26 PM)666wannabe Wrote:  According to Stephen Hawking, there are about 200 conditions that need to be present in order for life to exist.

There is substantial evidence that life does indeed exist on the earth.

If you take a deck of cards, walk into a room, and throw them into the air: it is a 100% probability that they will land in a certain configuration. Let's say, that that configuration represents the configuration of natural elements needed to support life. As said above, obviously this is what occurred on the earth (over billions of years). In no way does this suggest that the configuration was designed to produce life, but, simply, that life developed as a result of this configuration being what it was.

This is, however, an argument against this particular configuration ever occurring again, in a finite universe (or multi-verse). Perhaps, this is why SETI (or Jodie Foster) failed in their efforts to contact extraterrestrials.

These are the conditions for «Earth life». They would be similar form of life to ours and easily recognisable. Why should we assume that all life must ressemble closely that found on Earth?
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09-07-2015, 06:01 AM
RE: Mathmatical argument against life elsewhere in the universe
(09-07-2015 05:38 AM)epronovost Wrote:  
(08-07-2015 04:26 PM)666wannabe Wrote:  According to Stephen Hawking, there are about 200 conditions that need to be present in order for life to exist.

There is substantial evidence that life does indeed exist on the earth.

If you take a deck of cards, walk into a room, and throw them into the air: it is a 100% probability that they will land in a certain configuration. Let's say, that that configuration represents the configuration of natural elements needed to support life. As said above, obviously this is what occurred on the earth (over billions of years). In no way does this suggest that the configuration was designed to produce life, but, simply, that life developed as a result of this configuration being what it was.

This is, however, an argument against this particular configuration ever occurring again, in a finite universe (or multi-verse). Perhaps, this is why SETI (or Jodie Foster) failed in their efforts to contact extraterrestrials.

These are the conditions for «Earth life». They would be similar form of life to ours and easily recognisable. Why should we assume that all life must ressemble closely that found on Earth?


You may like this one -- I read this in Omni magazine back in the 90's ---

by Terry Bisson

http://www.terrybisson.com/page6/page6.html

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
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09-07-2015, 06:09 AM
RE: Mathmatical argument against life elsewhere in the universe
(09-07-2015 06:01 AM)onlinebiker Wrote:  You may like this one -- I read this in Omni magazine back in the 90's ---

by Terry Bisson

http://www.terrybisson.com/page6/page6.html

Ha ha, I enjoyed that. Thanks. Smile

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09-07-2015, 06:12 AM
RE: Mathmatical argument against life elsewhere in the universe
You're welcome. I enjoyed re-reading it as well... One of those short stories you never forget....

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
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09-07-2015, 06:18 AM
RE: Mathmatical argument against life elsewhere in the universe
(08-07-2015 06:30 PM)666wannabe Wrote:  
(08-07-2015 05:27 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  10^10 stars in a galaxy. 10^10 galaxies in the universe. What are the odds that those 200 conditions didn't occur again in 10^100 chances?

What is (10^100) / (200 x 199 x 198 ... x 3 x 2 x 1)?

Your math does not appear to be applicable. Where did the 200! come from?

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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