Ok Girly or Chas, Muffsy, Kim, or someone smart, s'plain this to me...
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16-01-2013, 05:10 PM
RE: Ok Girly or Chas, Muffsy, Kim, or someone smart, s'plain this to me...
It doesn't. Not always. Not even most of the time. You can spot them all over the forex markets because you're looking for them.

Confirmation bias.

Even in the screenshot you included, I see your fibo indicator shows three plateaus but I see a general upward trend with no less than 7 reversals. Sure, some of them are really small. What if, one minute after taking this shot, the trend took a real reversal and went all the way back down below 1.29439? Would you still call this a fibo pattern? Maybe, but if you looked at the larger pattern, it was nothing more than a random spike.

However, Fibo indicators are excellent at predicting where the buy/sell indicators might be found. The best use I have seen for a fibo indicator is to spot a trend early and overlay several fibo levels on it before the market even gets there. Then open your trade using as much of your equity as you're comfortable risking, say something like 10%. Then, if the market reverses, bail and claim your profit. But if it doesn't reverse and it hits your first fibo level, open a second position alongside your existing one, at a lower risk, say something like another 5%. If it hits the next fibo level, open another one, etc. When it finally reverses, close them all. Big money, good fun. Lots of risk though. The fibo indicator tells you where it's likely to reverse, but it may not. There are downloadable indicators with instructions if you're interested. I saw a lecture by trading expert Rob Booker on using this method; he's a self-made millionaire from it (and lecturing about it).

"Whores perform the same function as priests, but far more thoroughly." - Robert A. Heinlein
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17-01-2013, 11:30 AM
RE: Ok Girly or Chas, Muffsy, Kim, or someone smart, s'plain this to me...
Thanks. But I only trade "downs". (Fear is stronger than greed). I keep my powder dry until outside secular news events scare the crap out of everyone. It's VERY successful. You can buy a shitload of "just" out of the money index options, (puts), and they triple and quadruple in value. Look at the S and P downgrade. Can't wait for the next "crisis". Thumbsup Weeping Tongue

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Isaiah 45:7 "I form the light, and create darkness: I make peace, and create evil: I the LORD do all these things" (KJV)

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18-01-2013, 03:08 AM
RE: Ok Girly or Chas, Muffsy, Kim, or someone smart, s'plain this to me...
I wasn't mentioned in the thread name, so I will not answer anything.

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19-01-2013, 12:56 PM (This post was last modified: 19-01-2013 01:36 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: Ok Girly or Chas, Muffsy, Kim, or someone smart, s'plain this to me...
(16-01-2013 04:51 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  
(16-01-2013 01:14 PM)Chas Wrote:  It's because there are literally millions of people involved in trading. Drinking Beverage
But why does that result in a fractal pattern ? Why shouldn't it just result in "Chaos" ? (I know there are fractals evident in Chaos Theory, but why does millions of independent traders acting, result in an overall Finonacci sequence ?)

Girly ain't all that smart, Bucky, but the whole goddam universe is fucking fractal. Whether we are recognizing them or imposing them is subject to debate.

(17-01-2013 11:30 AM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  Thanks. But I only trade "downs". (Fear is stronger than greed). I keep my powder dry until outside secular news events scare the crap out of everyone. It's VERY successful. You can buy a shitload of "just" out of the money index options, (puts), and they triple and quadruple in value. Look at the S and P downgrade. Can't wait for the next "crisis". Thumbsup Weeping Tongue

Told you Girly ain't all that smart, Bucky, but I am smart enough to know I ain't all that smart and when it comes to investing I should just set it and forget it. Strategy's got me to a half million so far, if they can get me another half million maybe I can think about retiring. ... Nah, fuck it. I'd just start drinking earlier, I'm just gonna first retire and then die in place.

I remember watching this at University some 30 years ago now. While it isn't specifically about fractals, it had quite an impact on me. Whether we are exceptional pattern recognizers or exceptional pattern imposers don't much matter.





This is very good too.

Breathing - it's more art than science.
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19-01-2013, 01:38 PM
RE: Ok Girly or Chas, Muffsy, Kim, or someone smart, s'plain this to me...
(17-01-2013 11:30 AM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  Thanks. But I only trade "downs". (Fear is stronger than greed). I keep my powder dry until outside secular news events scare the crap out of everyone. It's VERY successful. You can buy a shitload of "just" out of the money index options, (puts), and they triple and quadruple in value. Look at the S and P downgrade. Can't wait for the next "crisis". Thumbsup Weeping Tongue

Just throw half your shit into index bonds and forget about it.
The other half, cut it into thirds.
Put a third into government bonds. Put another third into an IRA or 401K (there is a Roth 401K, if you're unaware) and feed it regularly. The last third just play with it; toss it into biotech or alternative energy or put it toward a non-profit which sponsors education or adopt an impoverished child or travel to places as yet undiscovered by you.

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Now, it's a beautiful day... go catch a wave. Drinking Beverage

I think in the end, I just feel like I'm a secular person who has a skeptical eye toward any extraordinary claim, carefully examining any extraordinary evidence before jumping to conclusions. ~ Eric ~ My friend ... who figured it out.
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19-01-2013, 06:00 PM
RE: Ok Girly or Chas, Muffsy, Kim, or someone smart, s'plain this to me...
Perhaps one should look at the sequence in art and music, and you will be led to a greater understanding. Smartass At least, that's my favourite.
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