Place your bets ... when and where will Ebola arrive in the US ?
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03-10-2014, 09:55 AM
RE: Place your bets ... when and where will Ebola arrive in the US ?
(03-10-2014 09:41 AM)cjlr Wrote:  
(03-10-2014 09:26 AM)Sam Wrote:  Watched an interview with Professor Peter Piot last night, who co-discovered and named the virus in 1976... It was very interesting.

He pretty much ruled out the possibility of an outbreak in the US or anywhere else in the developed world, for the simple reason that we have the means to easily and totally isolate it. In Africa, it is basically spreading in perfect conditions...

He's also ruled out the possibility of it mutating into an airborne form...

Even a vary narrow outbreak would have serious consequences.

A disruption of transportation infrastructure for just a couple days (ie, a minimal lockdown and case isolation) would be economically chaotic - not to mention that perhaps the biggest issue is in the panic-driven responses of many people.

Doubt that will happen. Ebola isn't the easiest to spread and can get isolated very quickly. Only reason it's affecting so much of Africa is because of Africa not being well developed healthcare wise. When they brought back those other people that had it they got taken care of quickly. All they need to do is screen people coming from infected places overseas and it won't cause too much trouble for us.

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03-10-2014, 10:14 AM
RE: Place your bets ... when and where will Ebola arrive in the US ?
(03-10-2014 09:55 AM)JDog554 Wrote:  
(03-10-2014 09:41 AM)cjlr Wrote:  Even a vary narrow outbreak would have serious consequences.

A disruption of transportation infrastructure for just a couple days (ie, a minimal lockdown and case isolation) would be economically chaotic - not to mention that perhaps the biggest issue is in the panic-driven responses of many people.

Doubt that will happen. Ebola isn't the easiest to spread and can get isolated very quickly. Only reason it's affecting so much of Africa is because of Africa not being well developed healthcare wise. When they brought back those other people that had it they got taken care of quickly. All they need to do is screen people coming from infected places overseas and it won't cause too much trouble for us.

"Screening people coming from infected places overseas" would require obtaining a thorough travel history from literally every single person entering the country. That is not even remotely possible.

Bringing back known cases already in isolation is not even remotely comparable.

The only way to guarantee a halt in transmission is to prevent contact. If cases occur in the US - the likelihood of this increases as long as the outbreak in west Africa continues and worsens; the spread there has been exponential so far - then lockdown will be the necessary response. Which will easily halt the spread of the disease, I agree, but it will have many negative secondary consequences.

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03-10-2014, 10:19 AM
RE: Place your bets ... when and where will Ebola arrive in the US ?
(03-10-2014 09:55 AM)JDog554 Wrote:  
(03-10-2014 09:41 AM)cjlr Wrote:  Even a vary narrow outbreak would have serious consequences.

A disruption of transportation infrastructure for just a couple days (ie, a minimal lockdown and case isolation) would be economically chaotic - not to mention that perhaps the biggest issue is in the panic-driven responses of many people.

Doubt that will happen. Ebola isn't the easiest to spread and can get isolated very quickly. Only reason it's affecting so much of Africa is because of Africa not being well developed healthcare wise. When they brought back those other people that had it they got taken care of quickly. All they need to do is screen people coming from infected places overseas and it won't cause too much trouble for us.

No, the poor healthcare system is not the only reason; people's behavior is a major contributor. People are doing precisely the wrong things out of fear and superstition.

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03-10-2014, 10:28 AM
RE: Place your bets ... when and where will Ebola arrive in the US ?
(03-10-2014 10:19 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(03-10-2014 09:55 AM)JDog554 Wrote:  Doubt that will happen. Ebola isn't the easiest to spread and can get isolated very quickly. Only reason it's affecting so much of Africa is because of Africa not being well developed healthcare wise. When they brought back those other people that had it they got taken care of quickly. All they need to do is screen people coming from infected places overseas and it won't cause too much trouble for us.

No, the poor healthcare system is not the only reason; people's behavior is a major contributor. People are doing precisely the wrong things out of fear and superstition.

Yes, that must be added into the mix. You can't easily or readily fix that.

Just like we can't stop the disinformation and media panic here.


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03-10-2014, 10:34 AM
RE: Place your bets ... when and where will Ebola arrive in the US ?
(03-10-2014 09:41 AM)cjlr Wrote:  Even a vary narrow outbreak would have serious consequences.

A disruption of transportation infrastructure for just a couple days (ie, a minimal lockdown and case isolation) would be economically chaotic - not to mention that perhaps the biggest issue is in the panic-driven responses of many people.

Yup - ^^this^^

The recent O'Hare shutdown of more than half of the runways in Chicago, tossed an interesting monkey wrench into the infrastructure. That fucked things up for days and it was only very low level vandalism.

I would also agree - panic is usually the thing that impacts populations more than anything, very often resulting in more injury than the instigating event. When people panic, they get stupid(er). Dodgy

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03-10-2014, 10:42 AM
RE: Place your bets ... when and where will Ebola arrive in the US ?
(03-10-2014 10:14 AM)cjlr Wrote:  
(03-10-2014 09:55 AM)JDog554 Wrote:  Doubt that will happen. Ebola isn't the easiest to spread and can get isolated very quickly. Only reason it's affecting so much of Africa is because of Africa not being well developed healthcare wise. When they brought back those other people that had it they got taken care of quickly. All they need to do is screen people coming from infected places overseas and it won't cause too much trouble for us.

"Screening people coming from infected places overseas" would require obtaining a thorough travel history from literally every single person entering the country. That is not even remotely possible.

Bringing back known cases already in isolation is not even remotely comparable.

The only way to guarantee a halt in transmission is to prevent contact. If cases occur in the US - the likelihood of this increases as long as the outbreak in west Africa continues and worsens; the spread there has been exponential so far - then lockdown will be the necessary response. Which will easily halt the spread of the disease, I agree, but it will have many negative secondary consequences.

Not really, just from flights coming from Africa or other infected area's.

It won't get to that point. Director of the CDC doubts this will affect the US in any way other than some cases popping up here and there. They are saying you should be more worried about Influenza than Ebola. It has such a low chance of causing an outbreak. Especially with people in panic and on the lookout it'll be easier for them to find someone who is infected.

(03-10-2014 10:19 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(03-10-2014 09:55 AM)JDog554 Wrote:  Doubt that will happen. Ebola isn't the easiest to spread and can get isolated very quickly. Only reason it's affecting so much of Africa is because of Africa not being well developed healthcare wise. When they brought back those other people that had it they got taken care of quickly. All they need to do is screen people coming from infected places overseas and it won't cause too much trouble for us.

No, the poor healthcare system is not the only reason; people's behavior is a major contributor. People are doing precisely the wrong things out of fear and superstition.

That too, I agree.

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03-10-2014, 10:51 AM
RE: Place your bets ... when and where will Ebola arrive in the US ?
(03-10-2014 10:42 AM)JDog554 Wrote:  Not really, just from flights coming from Africa or other infected area's.

Okay. Do you screen someone from Guinea? There are no direct flights from Conakry. Do you screen someone from Lagos, in case they're connecting from Conakry?

Do you screen someone from Paris, in case they're connecting from Lagos?

You have to have already checked to even have that information. It's a non-starter.

(03-10-2014 10:42 AM)JDog554 Wrote:  It won't get to that point. Director of the CDC doubts this will affect the US in any way other than some cases popping up here and there. They are saying you should be more worried about Influenza than Ebola. It has such a low chance of causing an outbreak. Especially with people in panic and on the lookout it'll be easier for them to find someone who is infected.

I am not saying there will be any mass outbreak of ebola in the United States (or Europe, or Canada, or so on).

I am saying that "some cases popping up here and there" is more than sufficient to cause significant disruption.

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03-10-2014, 10:58 AM
RE: Place your bets ... when and where will Ebola arrive in the US ?
(03-10-2014 10:51 AM)cjlr Wrote:  
(03-10-2014 10:42 AM)JDog554 Wrote:  Not really, just from flights coming from Africa or other infected area's.

Okay. Do you screen someone from Guinea? There are no direct flights from Conakry. Do you screen someone from Lagos, in case they're connecting from Conakry?

Do you screen someone from Paris, in case they're connecting from Lagos?

You have to have already checked to even have that information. It's a non-starter.

(03-10-2014 10:42 AM)JDog554 Wrote:  It won't get to that point. Director of the CDC doubts this will affect the US in any way other than some cases popping up here and there. They are saying you should be more worried about Influenza than Ebola. It has such a low chance of causing an outbreak. Especially with people in panic and on the lookout it'll be easier for them to find someone who is infected.

I am not saying there will be any mass outbreak of ebola in the United States (or Europe, or Canada, or so on).

I am saying that "some cases popping up here and there" is more than sufficient to cause significant disruption.

Ok well screen while boarding in those infected area's which they are actually doing. and maybe for the immediate area but not for the entire United States. It won't have that much affect on us. Did you know in the past decade the United States had 5 cases of Viral Hemorrhagic Fever or VHF disease similar to Ebola. Those didn't do much so why would a few cases of Ebola?

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03-10-2014, 12:21 PM
RE: Place your bets ... when and where will Ebola arrive in the US ?
Quote:A disruption of transportation infrastructure for just a couple days (ie, a minimal lockdown and case isolation) would be economically chaotic - not to mention that perhaps the biggest issue is in the panic-driven responses of many people.

Yes...as Jon Stewart discussed last night....

http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/ysfr9u...n-the-u-s-

(I hope our non-American members can access this.)


Because when it comes to protecting Americans the republicunts are largely full of shit.

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03-10-2014, 12:27 PM
RE: Place your bets ... when and where will Ebola arrive in the US ?
(03-10-2014 10:58 AM)JDog554 Wrote:  Ok well screen while boarding in those infected area's which they are actually doing. and maybe for the immediate area but not for the entire United States.

Naturally, screening already occurs.

And just as naturally, it is not perfect; cf Dallas.

As the number of cases increases, the odds of one passing what screening is practical increases. Such is inevitable.

The number of cases in west Africa is going to continue increasing for the foreseeable future.

(03-10-2014 10:58 AM)JDog554 Wrote:  It won't have that much affect on us.

Citation needed.

(03-10-2014 10:58 AM)JDog554 Wrote:  Did you know in the past decade the United States had 5 cases of Viral Hemorrhagic Fever or VHF disease similar to Ebola. Those didn't do much so why would a few cases of Ebola?

"If N cases didn't have a serious effect, then N+1 never will either!" is not a valid induction.

Consider a hypothetical case: let us imagine there are five cases of ebola at once in a large American city. Can that be compared to previous incidents?

What do you think the reaction among the general population might be?

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