Predict the election results
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28-09-2016, 08:17 AM
RE: Predict the election results
Further to my "he can't win" point: if Trump wins all the same states Romney won and also wins Michigan, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania he still loses the election 272 - 266.

LDH - maybe you want to revise your prediction.

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28-09-2016, 08:33 AM
RE: Predict the election results
(27-09-2016 03:58 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Here is everyones chance to go on the record and say who you think will win. Not who you want to win. Who you really think will win.

I predict Trump wins. Here is why.

Clinton is outspending Trump 5 to 1 on ads. All of that money isn't doing anything. Her lead evaporated. Polls are close nationally (within the margin of error) and the swing states are trending towards Trump. The election is 6 weeks away and Clinton can't pull away.

I think it comes down to turnout. I see Trump supporters as highly motivated. There is no Hillary enthusiasm. If the polls stay close he wins. Just like the mid terms, I think democrats have better things to do. Too many stay home. Especially the younger voters. Hillary won't hit the numbers Obama did, and Trump has very motivated supporters.

People will be motivated to keep Trump out the white house even if they do not like Clinton.
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28-09-2016, 08:51 AM
RE: Predict the election results
Doesn't matter. Whomever wins will become a puppet on my string... if they know what's good for them and their children. Evil_monster

Don't let those gnomes and their illusions get you down. They're just gnomes and illusions.

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29-09-2016, 11:56 AM
RE: Predict the election results
The reason I think Trump wins is turnout. I've said it before. Trump will have record turnout of white males. If he gets 3-5% more than Romney he wins. An article yesterday in Politico said the Clinton campaign is in "panic mode" over recent polling in Florida showing her support is far less among black folks than Obama had. If their turnout falls back to standard 50-52% (Obama had 62% black turnout) with lower support she's going to be toast. Florida has a larger black population than the other swing states. She could really be screwed in whiter states like Ohio and Colorado. Polls can't predict turnout.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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29-09-2016, 12:02 PM (This post was last modified: 29-09-2016 12:14 PM by Grasshopper.)
RE: Predict the election results
I predict record turnout among women (because of the Supreme Court vacancy, you know), and that they will overwhelmingly vote Democrat.

My guess is as good as yours.

Also, this particular white male will be voting Democrat.
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29-09-2016, 12:44 PM
RE: Predict the election results
(27-09-2016 06:51 PM)OrdoSkeptica Wrote:  I predict if hilary wins it's more of the same

I predict if trump wins sumed up




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29-09-2016, 01:29 PM
RE: Predict the election results
I might be the only person who says, can't say. Played enough pokemon in my day to know just because it looks like you might win doesn't mean you will.

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29-09-2016, 03:53 PM
RE: Predict the election results
(29-09-2016 11:56 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  The reason I think Trump wins is turnout. I've said it before. Trump will have record turnout of white males. If he gets 3-5% more than Romney he wins. An article yesterday in Politico said the Clinton campaign is in "panic mode" over recent polling in Florida showing her support is far less among black folks than Obama had. If their turnout falls back to standard 50-52% (Obama had 62% black turnout) with lower support she's going to be toast. Florida has a larger black population than the other swing states. She could really be screwed in whiter states like Ohio and Colorado. Polls can't predict turnout.

Nate Silver begs to differ.

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29-09-2016, 04:04 PM (This post was last modified: 29-09-2016 04:10 PM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Predict the election results
(29-09-2016 03:53 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  
(29-09-2016 11:56 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  The reason I think Trump wins is turnout. I've said it before. Trump will have record turnout of white males. If he gets 3-5% more than Romney he wins. An article yesterday in Politico said the Clinton campaign is in "panic mode" over recent polling in Florida showing her support is far less among black folks than Obama had. If their turnout falls back to standard 50-52% (Obama had 62% black turnout) with lower support she's going to be toast. Florida has a larger black population than the other swing states. She could really be screwed in whiter states like Ohio and Colorado. Polls can't predict turnout.

Nate Silver begs to differ.

First, that wasn't written by Nate Silver.

Second, the very premise of what was written is that IF the white voters show up, Trump wins. Which is what I'm saying. As of right now, its hard to determine if the new registrations are going to help Trump.

But there are many registered white voters that didn't vote in 2012 (some 25 million registered voters didn't vote) or 2008 that could be motivated to vote this time. I think I read somewhere that if whites turn out in the same rate as 2004 Trump should win, because Hillary doesn't have the support of minorities that Obama was able to get.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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29-09-2016, 04:09 PM
RE: Predict the election results
Surely Trump will lose. As stupid as American's are, surely they aren't THAT stupid.
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