Predict the election results
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30-09-2016, 12:07 PM
RE: Predict the election results
I watched the highlights of the first debate between them.

Im as unsettled by Trumps idea of reducing tax for the most wealthy, like this money will magically be spent by them into creating more jobs in a stagnant and dying economy as I am by corporate Clinton saying she will raise taxes for the most wealthy, again, in a dying and stagnant economy.

I think a lot of the younger generation, who watch more alternative media and the ones who supported Bernie will be disillusioned by the Democrats. I doubt these young SJW's will vote Trump and will probably vote third party.

Lastly I think the polls will show that turnout by the younger generations will be at an all time low.

I cant say who I think will win but with his history of bankruptcies maybe trump is the best to handle the demise of America LTD.

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30-09-2016, 03:52 PM
RE: Predict the election results
(30-09-2016 12:07 PM)bemore Wrote:  I watched the highlights of the first debate between them.

Im as unsettled by Trumps idea of reducing tax for the most wealthy, like this money will magically be spent by them into creating more jobs in a stagnant and dying economy as I am by corporate Clinton saying she will raise taxes for the most wealthy, again, in a dying and stagnant economy.

I think a lot of the younger generation, who watch more alternative media and the ones who supported Bernie will be disillusioned by the Democrats. I doubt these young SJW's will vote Trump and will probably vote third party.

Lastly I think the polls will show that turnout by the younger generations will be at an all time low.

I cant say who I think will win but with his history of bankruptcies maybe trump is the best to handle the demise of America LTD.

This is why Trump will win. Low turnout mixed with 3rd party votes. Polls can't predict turnout. It's easy to tell some pollster on the phone who you're voting for. It's another to put your video game controller down for a candidate that doesn't excite you. I read that democrat requests for absentee ballots in Iowa is way down (down 50% from 2012) and republicans have a 5% advantage in requested absentee ballots in Florida. With no Obama on the ticket, democrats will see lower turnout like the midterms.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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30-09-2016, 04:17 PM (This post was last modified: 30-09-2016 05:13 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: Predict the election results
(30-09-2016 03:52 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  This is why Trump will win. Low turnout mixed with 3rd party votes. Polls can't predict turnout. It's easy to tell some pollster on the phone who you're voting for. It's another to put your video game controller down for a candidate that doesn't excite you. I read that democrat requests for absentee ballots in Iowa is way down (down 50% from 2012) and republicans have a 5% advantage in requested absentee ballots in Florida. With no Obama on the ticket, democrats will see lower turnout like the midterms.

They're polling likely voters now.

#sigh
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30-09-2016, 05:37 PM
RE: Predict the election results
(30-09-2016 04:17 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(30-09-2016 03:52 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  This is why Trump will win. Low turnout mixed with 3rd party votes. Polls can't predict turnout. It's easy to tell some pollster on the phone who you're voting for. It's another to put your video game controller down for a candidate that doesn't excite you. I read that democrat requests for absentee ballots in Iowa is way down (down 50% from 2012) and republicans have a 5% advantage in requested absentee ballots in Florida. With no Obama on the ticket, democrats will see lower turnout like the midterms.

They're polling likely voters now.

I know. I'm only guessing here, this is a prediction thread after all. But I've heard pollsters say one of the ways they determine likely voters is if they voted in recent elections. They're throwing out a lot of potential voters this time around. My guess is that Trump has a huge group of white voters that are already registered and rarely vote that plan on voting this time for sure. I just have this feeling that the polls are missing something. I could be wrong.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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30-09-2016, 05:47 PM
RE: Predict the election results
(30-09-2016 05:37 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  ... I just have this feeling that the polls are missing something ...

Your favorite candidate operates exclusively on "having a feeling" which is one (among countless) reasons the prospect of that guy occupying the Oval Office is terrifying ---

(30-09-2016 05:37 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  ... I could be wrong ...

and here you prove you at least have the intellectual honesty (and humility) to acknowledge that your "feelings" may not actually be the blueprint for the universe - a vital dimension of humanity your favorite candidate not only doesn't have, but is incapable of imagining.
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30-09-2016, 05:48 PM
RE: Predict the election results
(30-09-2016 05:37 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(30-09-2016 04:17 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  They're polling likely voters now.

I know. I'm only guessing here, this is a prediction thread after all. But I've heard pollsters say one of the ways they determine likely voters is if they voted in recent elections. They're throwing out a lot of potential voters this time around. My guess is that Trump has a huge group of white voters that are already registered and rarely vote that plan on voting this time for sure. I just have this feeling that the polls are missing something. I could be wrong.

‘Missing’ White Voters Could Elect Trump. But First They Need To Register.

#sigh
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30-09-2016, 06:02 PM
RE: Predict the election results
(30-09-2016 05:48 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(30-09-2016 05:37 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I know. I'm only guessing here, this is a prediction thread after all. But I've heard pollsters say one of the ways they determine likely voters is if they voted in recent elections. They're throwing out a lot of potential voters this time around. My guess is that Trump has a huge group of white voters that are already registered and rarely vote that plan on voting this time for sure. I just have this feeling that the polls are missing something. I could be wrong.

‘Missing’ White Voters Could Elect Trump. But First They Need To Register.

In addition to those missing white voters, there's also the 25,000,000 registered voters (mostly white) that didn't vote in 2012 that are not considered "likely voters" and get ignored by pollsters. Its a small chance, but its Trumps only chance

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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11-11-2016, 12:27 PM
RE: Predict the election results
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"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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11-11-2016, 12:49 PM
RE: Predict the election results
Some people here need their fortune telling licenses revoked....


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