PredictIt uses markets to guess political outcomes.
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25-06-2016, 09:39 PM
PredictIt uses markets to guess political outcomes.
There is a website that tries to use market-ish arrangements to predict the outcome of political questions.

You have to sign up to get full access to the site, BUT you do not have to put any real money into your account after you sign up. In fact, I recommend keeping your money out, because I took a bath on Brexit. Lost a whole $7 (my biggest gamble since a poker game in 2002.)

Still, it's interesting to see what a "market" thinks about the likelihood of questions like: Will the next U.N. Secretary General be a woman? Will North Korea have an H-Bomb test in 2016? Will the Senate confirm any Obama SCOTUS nominee? And of course all kinds of US election questions. It's kind of like crowdsourced political savvy.

https://www.predictit.org/
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26-06-2016, 12:43 AM
RE: PredictIt uses markets to guess political outcomes.
(25-06-2016 09:39 PM)I Am Wrote:  There is a website that tries to use market-ish arrangements to predict the outcome of political questions.

You have to sign up to get full access to the site, BUT you do not have to put any real money into your account after you sign up. In fact, I recommend keeping your money out, because I took a bath on Brexit. Lost a whole $7 (my biggest gamble since a poker game in 2002.)

Still, it's interesting to see what a "market" thinks about the likelihood of questions like: Will the next U.N. Secretary General be a woman? Will North Korea have an H-Bomb test in 2016? Will the Senate confirm any Obama SCOTUS nominee? And of course all kinds of US election questions. It's kind of like crowdsourced political savvy.

https://www.predictit.org/

Intrade had these kind of markets and many. I used to dabble in them until the federals shut them down.
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26-06-2016, 02:57 AM
RE: PredictIt uses markets to guess political outcomes.
I found that website around September last year wanted to bet a couple hundred bucks on Trump becoming the GOP's nominee. It's too bad that the site can only be used by verified US residents because I would have made a ton of money with that bet.

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26-06-2016, 04:12 AM
RE: PredictIt uses markets to guess political outcomes.
(26-06-2016 02:57 AM)Vosur Wrote:  I found that website around September last year wanted to bet a couple hundred bucks on Trump becoming the GOP's nominee. It's too bad that the site can only be used by verified US residents because I would have made a ton of money with that bet.

This comment suggest you are being "results orientated"...which is a bad thing for a gambler. A disciplined gambler isn't going to lament the fact they would have won a lot of money. They would lament the fact that they could not take the opportunity to book a good bet regardless of the outcome. A good bet is one with a positive expected value

Suppose Last October, Donald Trump slipped on a banana peel, broke his neck and died. A "results orientated" gambler would be like, "Good thing that site can only be used by verified US residents otherwise I would have lost $200". But really you should still be upset because you couldn't book a bet which you believed held positive EV.

Gambling is all about booking +EV bets and bankroll management. The result of any particular bet is of no real consequence in the long run. I don't make this post to disparage you....virtually all gamblers....good and bad, are "results orientated" from time to time. I make this post because at some point in your life you will almost certainly have access to a betting platform like Predicit and you do not beat these platforms with "results orientated" thinking.
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