Presidential Election Predictions
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02-02-2016, 06:19 AM (This post was last modified: 02-02-2016 06:41 AM by onlinebiker.)
Presidential Election Predictions
Listening to the radio this morning - and they've all but decided that Hillary and Cruz will be squaring off in November.....

SHeeeesshhh..... It's only the caucus, guys......

.....

Which leads me to think about how the media dimwits like to "predict" elections -- and how they come to such conclusions....

One of the things they USED to harp on about was "bellwethers" -- states and voting precincts that came in early -- and predicted the outcome of an election.


One of the places they USED to go on about - was Dixville Notch NH. I forget how many, but it seemed like the voters of Dixville Notch (less than 20 voters) voted for the winner of presidential elections with a high degree of picking the winner.

Until 1992 - when Andre Marrou - the Libertarian candidate - won the primaries with more votes than any other candidate........

I know -- because I saw it in the background on a scoreboard on the news -- but they NEVER mentioned it.....

And, you don't hear about Dixville Notch much anymore.......

.......................................

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02-02-2016, 06:34 AM
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
(02-02-2016 06:19 AM)onlinebiker Wrote:  Listening to the radio this morning - and they've all but decided that Hillary and Cruz will be squaring off in November.....

SHeeeesshhh..... It's only the caucus, guys......

.....

Which leads me to think about how the media dimwits like to "predict" elections -- and how they come to such conclusions....

One of the things they USED to harp on about was "bellweathers" -- states and voting precincts that came in early -- and predicted the outcome of an election.


One of the places they USED to go on about - was Dixville Notch NH. I forget how many, but it seemed like the voters of Dixville Notch (less than 20 voters) voted for the winner of presidential elections with a high degree of picking the winner.

Until 1992 - when Andre Marrou - the Libertarian candidate - won the primaries with more votes than any other candidate........

I know -- because I saw it in the background on a scoreboard on the news -- but they NEVER mentioned it.....

And, you don't hear about Dixville Notch much anymore.......

Here in New England, we still get the results from Dixville Notch on the TV news.

And, it's bellwether.

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Science is not a subject, but a method.
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02-02-2016, 06:41 AM
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
(02-02-2016 06:34 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(02-02-2016 06:19 AM)onlinebiker Wrote:  Listening to the radio this morning - and they've all but decided that Hillary and Cruz will be squaring off in November.....

SHeeeesshhh..... It's only the caucus, guys......

.....

Which leads me to think about how the media dimwits like to "predict" elections -- and how they come to such conclusions....

One of the things they USED to harp on about was "bellweathers" -- states and voting precincts that came in early -- and predicted the outcome of an election.


One of the places they USED to go on about - was Dixville Notch NH. I forget how many, but it seemed like the voters of Dixville Notch (less than 20 voters) voted for the winner of presidential elections with a high degree of picking the winner.

Until 1992 - when Andre Marrou - the Libertarian candidate - won the primaries with more votes than any other candidate........

I know -- because I saw it in the background on a scoreboard on the news -- but they NEVER mentioned it.....

And, you don't hear about Dixville Notch much anymore.......

Here in New England, we still get the results from Dixville Notch on the TV news.

And, it's bellwether.

It's also early.....

Just got my first cuppa....Drinking Beverage

......

It's funny -- because after 92 Dixville has gone back to voting for winners pretty consistent.... I guess the media doesn't want to forgive their heresy of voting for something other than one of the "chosen two"....

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
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02-02-2016, 07:12 AM
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
(02-02-2016 06:41 AM)onlinebiker Wrote:  
(02-02-2016 06:34 AM)Chas Wrote:  Here in New England, we still get the results from Dixville Notch on the TV news.

And, it's bellwether.

It's also early.....

Just got my first cuppa....Drinking Beverage

......

It's funny -- because after 92 Dixville has gone back to voting for winners pretty consistent.... I guess the media doesn't want to forgive their heresy of voting for something other than one of the "chosen two"....

I was on my second cup. Smile Caffeine deficiency can be a serious problem.

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02-02-2016, 07:15 AM
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
(02-02-2016 06:19 AM)onlinebiker Wrote:  Listening to the radio this morning - and they've all but decided that Hillary and Cruz will be squaring off in November.....

SHeeeesshhh..... It's only the caucus, guys......

.....

Which leads me to think about how the media dimwits like to "predict" elections -- and how they come to such conclusions....

One of the things they USED to harp on about was "bellwethers" -- states and voting precincts that came in early -- and predicted the outcome of an election.


One of the places they USED to go on about - was Dixville Notch NH. I forget how many, but it seemed like the voters of Dixville Notch (less than 20 voters) voted for the winner of presidential elections with a high degree of picking the winner.

Until 1992 - when Andre Marrou - the Libertarian candidate - won the primaries with more votes than any other candidate........

I know -- because I saw it in the background on a scoreboard on the news -- but they NEVER mentioned it.....

And, you don't hear about Dixville Notch much anymore.......

So ted cruz will be the next president eh? I have been noticing a democrat-republican pattern for a while now

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02-02-2016, 07:18 AM
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
Who woulda thunk they conclude that?

But historically it's the winner of 2 of the first 3 that matters.

Since people in droves have the mindset of wanting to feel they chose the winner or will think if they voted for a candidate who lost they are throwing away their vote so they respond in the states in a month later based on who was seen as the biggest winner of the first couple results combined. 2012 was the oddity and weird because now people will say, But Santorum won it, well in the end he had the most delegates, but the report for 2 weeks was Romney won, he got the most delegates and the vote wave. What the media says about the results matter to influence more than the real results.

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02-02-2016, 07:59 AM (This post was last modified: 02-02-2016 08:47 AM by yakherder.)
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
That pattern goes something like this:

Democrat makes a bunch of bullshit promises.

We're addicted to bullshit, so we elect said Democrat.

Predictably, this Democrat is unable to follow up on those promises.

Republican promises to make it all better.

With the sweet scent of fresh bullshit clouding our judgement, we forget about the last time the Republicans fucked us over, and we put them into office.

Predictably, this Republican is unable to follow up on those promises.

Democrat promises to make it all better.

With the sweet scent of fresh bullshit clouding our judgement, we forget about the last time the Democrats fucked us over, and we put them into office.

Etc., etc.

And we never learn because, as humans capable of believing in crap like God and Santa and stuff like that, we are by definition irrational. We just keep following that damn carrot, knowing damn well we're never going to reach it, but allowing ourselves to be bribed with it over and over nonetheless.

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02-02-2016, 09:57 AM (This post was last modified: 05-02-2016 10:27 AM by Vosur.)
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
(02-02-2016 07:59 AM)yakherder Wrote:  That pattern goes something like this:

Democrat makes a bunch of bullshit promises.

We're addicted to bullshit, so we elect said Democrat.

Predictably, this Democrat is unable to follow up on those promises.

Republican promises to make it all better.

With the sweet scent of fresh bullshit clouding our judgement, we forget about the last time the Republicans fucked us over, and we put them into office.

Predictably, this Republican is unable to follow up on those promises.

Democrat promises to make it all better.

With the sweet scent of fresh bullshit clouding our judgement, we forget about the last time the Democrats fucked us over, and we put them into office.

Etc., etc.

And we never learn because, as humans capable of believing in crap like God and Santa and stuff like that, we are by definition irrational. We just keep following that damn carrot, knowing damn well we're never going to reach it, but allowing ourselves to be bribed with it over and over nonetheless.
Some people don't like Ben Garrison's political cartoons because they aren't very subtle and because they sometimes have conspiratorial undertones, but I like this one a lot because it conveys your message in a clear way.

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02-02-2016, 10:10 AM
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
(02-02-2016 09:57 AM)Vosur Wrote:  
(02-02-2016 07:59 AM)yakherder Wrote:  That pattern goes something like this:

Democrat makes a bunch of bullshit promises.

We're addicted to bullshit, so we elect said Democrat.

Predictably, this Democrat is unable to follow up on those promises.

Republican promises to make it all better.

With the sweet scent of fresh bullshit clouding our judgement, we forget about the last time the Republicans fucked us over, and we put them into office.

Predictably, this Republican is unable to follow up on those promises.

Democrat promises to make it all better.

With the sweet scent of fresh bullshit clouding our judgement, we forget about the last time the Democrats fucked us over, and we put them into office.

Etc., etc.

And we never learn because, as humans capable of believing in crap like God and Santa and stuff like that, we are by definition irrational. We just keep following that damn carrot, knowing damn well we're never going to reach it, but allowing ourselves to be bribed with it over and over nonetheless.
Some people don't like Ben Garrison's political cartoons because they aren't very subtle and because they sometimes have conspiratorial undertones, but I like this one a lot because it conveys your message in a clear way.

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Or because it's a disingenuous excuse to disengage entirely. I mean, there's that.

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02-02-2016, 10:15 AM
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
OP asked for a prediction.

Mine: we Americans are screwed.
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