Presidential Election Predictions
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05-02-2016, 08:07 AM
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
I just ran across this article http://www.vox.com/2016/2/5/10918164/don...ce=twitter examining morality as seen by Candidates supporters.

Not necessarily making a prediction but it's highlighting the differences of voters based on a concept I've probably posted too much about here in philosophy threads talking about morality. That's the Moral Foundations Theory and scoping out positions of people via 6 defined moral values where a person can range in caring about.

Their data could potentially lead to a possible contrast view of how Rubio vs Trump could stack up against eachother. While Rubio is the establishment guy, it may be not overall effective if Trump really does pull in more moderate people on these types of issues.

"Allow there to be a spectrum in all that you see" - Neil Degrasse Tyson
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05-02-2016, 11:33 AM
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
Interesting article. Would you say the reason this forum can't seem to find its consensus candidate is that we are a fractured base with no one moral platform that any one candidate can answer to? Or do we have a moral platform that we can articulate, but a base that's too small for any candidate to really give a shit about?

“Until you make the unconscious
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05-02-2016, 11:46 AM
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
Gary Johnson!

I predict that the American people are going to have a last minute reckoning and come together in support of sanity.
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05-02-2016, 11:50 AM
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
(05-02-2016 11:33 AM)Kaneda Wrote:  Interesting article. Would you say the reason this forum can't seem to find its consensus candidate is that we are a fractured base with no one moral platform that any one candidate can answer to? Or do we have a moral platform that we can articulate, but a base that's too small for any candidate to really give a shit about?

Neither. I think it's that we're morally fractured, inarticulate and think platform shoes make the best candidate.
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05-02-2016, 12:21 PM
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
Democrats win. Republicans lose.

Business as usual either way. Anybody but the 1%: losers, no matter the party of the President.

On the micro level, I kind of hope it will be Trump-Palin vs. Sanders-Clinton. Can you imagine?
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05-02-2016, 01:15 PM
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
(04-02-2016 06:47 PM)Kaneda Wrote:  
(04-02-2016 10:33 AM)cjlr Wrote:  It doesn't even need to be a matter of third parties. Primary turnout is something like 20 percent through much of the United States, if not lower. And in an off year or downballot election electoral turnout might not top 50 percent.

Why would a candidate whose selection hinges on appealing to a bare plurality of a narrow minority ever need to consider the opinions of the uninvolved?

The reason we have so much voter apathy is because the condenders at the top have been so consistently awful for the past 30 years and very few people are are doing anything to work through the fundamental flaws in our electoral system.

... It's a circular argument, though. Of course the disengaged aren't going to be represented. That's true no matter what electoral system is in place. Constituencies are pretty much inevitable.

(04-02-2016 06:47 PM)Kaneda Wrote:  Crowdsourcing third-party candidates through a public social media platform (read: not facebook) can empower the majority who resign not to vote in the primaries. It'll work by building a consensus on what issues matter most to everyone, and promoting a third-party (and perhaps a fourth party) candidate a couple years in advance of election season. Nothing that a social network can't do to get the consensus candidates' message out to as many people as possible. This network would clearly spell out the candidate's platform and detail where all the funding was coming from, with obvious regulations put in place to keep out the cancerous megadonors and special interest groups.

Sure, and from that the fundamental first step is still show up on game day. Right?

Appealing to the non-participants is a fairly tautologically difficult problem. In any case you can't just crowdsource institutional coherence; there's still the need for some degree of party apparatus to ensure standards and uniformity. That's the kind of thing that takes a lot longer than one election cycle to build up (example: third parties in Canadian provincial politics).

I would be very wary of using the word 'obvious' for something inherently nuanced. Just what separates a donor from a megadonor, anyway?

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05-02-2016, 01:38 PM
RE: Presidential Election Predictions
You know who's got to really be conflicted???

Tina Fey.

She's a Democrat, that makes good money impersonating a whackadoodle Republican..

So on some level - she's got to be hoping that Trumph/Palin becomes a reality.....


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