Probability
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09-03-2013, 12:21 AM (This post was last modified: 09-03-2013 12:25 AM by Heywood Jahblome.)
Probability
Suppose there is a bin and you are told the bin contains marbles. You can't see into the bin but you are able to reach into the bin and pull out a marble. You wonder to yourself, what colors are the marbles in that bin?

What happens if you reach into the bin and pull out a white marble? You get information. You get information about the unknown composition of the bin. You know that the bin contained at least one white marble. It could contain marbles of other colors, or all the marbles that were/are in the bin could be white. You reach into the bin an pull out another white marble. You have more information about the initial composition of the bin....it had a least 2 white marbles and it became more likely that all marbles in the bin are white. In fact the more white marbles you draw without ever finding a non white marble, the more likely it becomes that all marbles in the bin are white.

The atheists on this forum should not disagree with this logic at all. It gives them good cause to reject claims of miracles. The more "miracles" that turn out to have natural explaination, the more likely it is that all miracles have natural explaination.

Does anyone disagree with the reasoning in this thread?

Vosur, Anjele, Hanoff.....have you learned nothing in my absence?
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09-03-2013, 12:42 AM
RE: Probability
BY THE GOLDEN NOSE OF TYCHO BRAHE!!! I CAST THEE OUT!
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09-03-2013, 12:45 AM (This post was last modified: 09-03-2013 12:51 AM by ClydeLee.)
RE: Probability
I disagree with the "the Atheists on this forum" aspect but not much else from what I glanced over in the post.

There's practically nothing you can say "the Atheists on this forum" agree upon, that even includes what they think atheism is definitely defined as or how they take to their level of atheism.

If you say that a skeptic should not disagree with, I'd be prone to take that with validity, although It's also relevant that a skeptic would be skeptical with where you think you will be going with this point.

"Allow there to be a spectrum in all that you see" - Neil Degrasse Tyson
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09-03-2013, 12:51 AM
RE: Probability
(09-03-2013 12:45 AM)ClydeLee Wrote:  I disagree with the "the Atheists on this forum" aspect but not much else from what I glanced over in the post.
I probably could have chosen my words better there. The logic provides strong cause for anyone to be skeptical of a claim of a miracle.

Vosur, Anjele, Hanoff.....have you learned nothing in my absence?
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09-03-2013, 12:52 AM
RE: Probability
(09-03-2013 12:45 AM)ClydeLee Wrote:  I disagree with the "the Atheists on this forum" aspect but not much else from what I glanced over in the post.

There's practically nothing you can say "the Atheists on this forum" agree upon, that even includes what they think atheism is definitely defined as or how they take to their level of atheism.

If you say that a skeptic should not disagree with, I'd be prone to take that with validity, although It's also relevant that a skeptic would be skeptical with where you think you will be going with this point.

Angry

I disagree!

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09-03-2013, 12:55 AM
RE: Probability
Get to the point, buck-o. Trying to be clever in how you lay out your argument doesn't make people think you're more clever, or win you debates, it just annoys people for wasting their time. So spell our you punch line and be done with it.

E 2 = (mc 2)2 + (pc )2
614C → 714N + e + ̅νe
2 K(s) + 2 H2O(l) → 2 KOH(aq) + H2 (g) + 196 kJ/mol
It works, bitches.
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09-03-2013, 01:06 AM
RE: Probability
(09-03-2013 12:51 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(09-03-2013 12:45 AM)ClydeLee Wrote:  I disagree with the "the Atheists on this forum" aspect but not much else from what I glanced over in the post.
I probably could have chosen my words better there. The logic provides strong cause for anyone to be skeptical of a claim of a miracle.
What logic? What do miracles have to do with marbles?
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09-03-2013, 01:12 AM
RE: Probability
Worth noting that this is only valid if the marbles are arranged randomly. If they are selectively placed, or differentially placed based on some unforeseen bias (green marbles are attracted to the walls of the jar...) then the whole thing is invalid.

E 2 = (mc 2)2 + (pc )2
614C → 714N + e + ̅νe
2 K(s) + 2 H2O(l) → 2 KOH(aq) + H2 (g) + 196 kJ/mol
It works, bitches.
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09-03-2013, 01:20 AM
RE: Probability
I'm sorry, but NO, each item you pull out of the bin has no bearing on the probability of what you will pull out next.
Each time, it is an independent action, just like a roulette wheel.
Just because you see a pattern doesn't mean that the pattern you perceive will continue.

After you pull out 10 white marbles, you then begin to pull out 9 red marbles, then 8 orange marbles, then 7 yellow marbles.
Given this pattern, how many & what color marbles might you expect to pull out next.

What you expect to find has no bearing on the reality of what you do find.
Sure you can make predictions and they may be correct by chance, but what are those predictions based on.

Given 100 bins, all containing random different amounts and colors of marbles how well will your predictive model of guessing what comes next by basing it off of what you have observed so far ?

The answer is you won't be able to predict what is in the bins.
You may find streaks of black marbles pulled and streaks of red marbles pulled but it's all a guessing game, because each time your hand goes in the bin, it's a new unknown that has no bearing on what was pulled before hand.

Insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results
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09-03-2013, 01:23 AM
RE: Probability
Rahn is correct. What you described is definitely what is perceived, but it is not something that has any logical certainty. It's the gambler's fallacy, essentially, the belief that the result of one random event has a bearing on the result of the next random event.

E 2 = (mc 2)2 + (pc )2
614C → 714N + e + ̅νe
2 K(s) + 2 H2O(l) → 2 KOH(aq) + H2 (g) + 196 kJ/mol
It works, bitches.
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