Probability for existence of God
Post Reply
 
Thread Rating:
  • 0 Votes - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
08-11-2017, 06:30 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 05:56 PM)natachan Wrote:  Let’s say you take a ruler and make a mark on it. Take a random person and say they are either taller or shorter than that mark. Is the probability 50/50? No.

Let’s say you make that mark on the 4’ point. The odds of any person being shorter than that are not 50%. We know that because we know how tall people grow to be. We have prior information we can use to determine probability.

That's true, that's part of background information we would have in that case. In case of OP there is no such background information that would allow you to diminish 50/50 probability that God created the universe.

But there is a lot of available information to greatly diminish 50/50 chance that universe either got to exist through unconscious means or is eternally run, so to speak, through unconscious means (like elements and laws of nature, etc).
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
08-11-2017, 06:31 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 03:35 PM)brunumb Wrote:  Your estimates have no validity and are just figures plucked from...... the air.
Lol ... you're being way too kind.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
08-11-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 04:53 PM)Henri Wrote:  You are correct that just having two options doesn't mean that there is an equal probability. Equal probability comes from the fact that these two sources are symmetric - we can change one for the other and outcome will be the same, since that switch doesn't change anything against available information we have.

Facepalm NO.

There are two sources but that in no way means that they have equal probability. This has already been explained to you by a number of posters. Present your hypothesis to a mathematician of note and see what response you get.

No gods necessary.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
08-11-2017, 06:46 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 05:15 PM)Henri Wrote:  
(08-11-2017 03:58 PM)Fatbaldhobbit Wrote:  Citation needed.

If Jesus is the way to heaven than unbaptized people (including babies) cannot enter heaven. Same for fetuses (fetii?) in the womb.

That's conclusion not explicit verse. There is an age of accountability, until which a child doesn't know what's right and wrong and as such cannot commit sin before God, although he, she or it has sinnful nature. Along children that would also include, for example, mentally retarded people.

Ok, so you pulled numbers out of your ass and proclaim goddidit.

I note you are post-hocin'g the biblical god. So tell me, does Genesis refer to 6 literal 24 hour days?

Was there actually a world-wide flood and the only survivor was Noah, his family and whatever animals made it onto his boat?

Was all human language with all of it's variants spawned instantaneously at the tower of Babel?

Your problem isn't merely limited to providing evidence for a deity creating the universe. (Which you won't be able to do) Your problem is that goofy book that makes so many ridiculous claims.

The Book of Goofiness is what led many of us to stop believing the god claims in it.

Gods derive their power from post-hoc rationalizations. -The Inquisition

Using the supernatural to explain events in your life is a failure of the intellect to comprehend the world around you. -The Inquisition
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes TheInquisition's post
08-11-2017, 06:47 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 06:26 PM)true scotsman Wrote:  Well then if your just talking about the current state of the universe, we know what caused that. It was the expansion of the universe from a small dense and extremely hot state to what we have now. The expansion of the universe was caused by the nature of that small hot, dense and extremely hot universe. Because all actions are caused by entities and the nature of the action is determined by the nature of the entity which acts. That's the law of causality.

There is no other universe for us except the one we can observe and measure. What is beyond of what we can measure and observe is unknowable. Even if you got to the wall of the universe, you wouldn't know what's behind the wall, something or nothing. Similarly, you can't know if there is something in some parallel realms that are not available to our senses and tools.

Anyway, you claim to know what caused current state of what we observe as universe. You say it was by "expansion of the universe from a small dense and extremely hot state to what we have now. The expansion of the universe was caused by the nature of that small hot, dense and extremely hot universe. Because all actions are caused by entities and the nature of the action is determined by the nature of the entity which acts. That's the law of causality."

How can you know that that expansion and other actions is not God's way of creation? God could have set law of causality in motion, along with other laws and elements, created entities to act upon those laws, which altogether lead to small hot, dense and extremely hot universe and then to expansion.

You have no knowledge against that possibility. That's 50/50 chance. You may not like it that you don't know, or you may prefer one way or the other, but that doesn't change probability.

At the same time, you take into calculation measurements about our universe and it seems impossible (almost 0% chance, but not absolutely 0%) that our current state of universe just happened through unconscious means.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
08-11-2017, 06:57 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 06:33 PM)brunumb Wrote:  There are two sources but that in no way means that they have equal probability. This has already been explained to you by a number of posters. Present your hypothesis to a mathematician of note and see what response you get.

Present what is the probability if it is not equal.

If you say it's unknown, then that's 50/50. If something is unknown, and there are two options, that means there is equal probability.

If you say there is, for example, 0% for God, I would like to read how you come to that conclusion through probability methods.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
08-11-2017, 07:01 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 06:15 PM)Henri Wrote:  
(08-11-2017 05:14 PM)Grasshopper Wrote:  If it's eternal, it didn't "get to exist" at all, and both of your options are irrelevant. Are you really so stupid that you can't see this? Yes. Yes, you are.

Universe that we get to observe and measure got to exist, through change. I'm not reffering to the whole universe. We don't know what whole universe is, we only know what we can observe and measure.

Sun got to exist. Earth got to exist. Water on Earth got to exist. Are you saying those are eternal in states we see them now?

If it works this way in the part of universe we can observe, are you actually suggesting that other laws might apply to the parts we can't see yet? Or are you saying that isn't true until we can see the whole universe?

The sun got to exist? The earth got to exist?

Matter attracting matter isn't a thing in your belief system?

You are moving toward the fine tuning argument.


But as if to knock me down, reality came around
And without so much as a mere touch, cut me into little pieces

Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes Momsurroundedbyboys's post
08-11-2017, 07:06 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 06:03 PM)Henri Wrote:  
(08-11-2017 05:00 PM)Cheerful Charlie Wrote:  Don't mention Bayes theorem or you will cause heads to explode.

OP is in fact easy to understand from Bayesian perspective.

Obviously you understand none of this. If in fact the Universe is eternal and God does not exist, it is not true that there is a 50%/50% probability of God existing. That may be used as an initial starting point, but at that point it is not really useful. What matters is evidence, facts that can be used to refine a probability calculation.

And another point is that Bayes theorem can be useless if misapplied to a situation where it does not apply, such as when there is no real facts to further proceed in a meaningful manner. Bayes theorem is not a good fit for examining metaphysical ideas that have no evidence to refine the initial assumption.

Of course here we are faced with a situation where an material Universe is known to exist and no evidence that it was created by a God can be demonstrated.
On the other hand, the many problems the God concept has, the incoherencies, problems and arguable claims made for God means it is not a good hypothesis and has a very low probability.

You cannot throw out an initial starting assumption not based on hard evidence, and then stop. And basically, 50%/50% is arbitrary. In such situations, it does not matter if you start with 100% or 0%, what matters are facts that can tell us if these assumptions are true or not an to what extent.

Basically, theologians like Alvin Plantinga and William Craig Lane have been abusing Bayes theorem for years no. This sort of nonsense isn't new.

And the day will come when the mystical generation of Jesus, by the supreme being as his father in the womb of a virgin will be classed with the fable of the generation of Minerva in the brain of Jupiter
- Thomas Jefferson

Cheerful Charlie
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 4 users Like Cheerful Charlie's post
08-11-2017, 07:10 PM (This post was last modified: 09-11-2017 07:20 AM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 06:47 PM)Henri Wrote:  There is no other universe for us except the one we can observe and measure. What is beyond of what we can measure and observe is unknowable.

Right.
And that means you can say NOTHING about what your OP claims it can calculate.
The OP is a FALSE meaningless set of words, and non-probabilities.

What he's done here, is say he "accepts" two POSSIBILITIES, (not probabilities). Why ? Because he's biased, and not very imaginative, and fallaciously claims all POSSIBILITIES are encompassed by the two he proposes. Then, he randomly, capriciously and artificially slaps ("assigns" ... incorrectly, not "calculates") two random numbers onto each of the POSSIBILITIES he recognizes. Since he knows nothing about either one, he asserts them to be 50/50. In fact, with no data, it's 0/0, as there is no data. It's not Probability. There are no definitions, (of the words he uses), no calculations, no observations, no weighted probability model. It's a fraud. There is no way to calculate a probability model for the situation in the OP as there is no data to base one on. They are possibilities, and not the only ones. It's of no more value than me asserting the universe was either made of a red crayon, or a blue crayon, and as far as we know, it's 50/50.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 5 users Like Bucky Ball's post
08-11-2017, 07:13 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 06:57 PM)Henri Wrote:  
(08-11-2017 06:33 PM)brunumb Wrote:  There are two sources but that in no way means that they have equal probability. This has already been explained to you by a number of posters. Present your hypothesis to a mathematician of note and see what response you get.

Present what is the probability if it is not equal.

If you say it's unknown, then that's 50/50. If something is unknown, and there are two options, that means there is equal probability.

If you say there is, for example, 0% for God, I would like to read how you come to that conclusion through probability methods.

Unknown is NOT 50/50. It we knew it was 50/50, it would not be unknown. This is basic, BASIC probability and statistics. If you do not understand this concept, you lack the understanding of this field of math to even evaluate whether your "at-least-50%" OP argument is valid.

"If I ignore the alternatives, the only option is God; I ignore them; therefore God." -- The Syllogism of Fail
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 3 users Like Reltzik's post
Post Reply
Forum Jump: