Probability for existence of God
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10-11-2017, 06:17 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(10-11-2017 05:26 PM)Henri Wrote:  Again, to repeat, if you want to say it's unknown, that means that you can't distinguish between bet on a coin toss and bet on pulling an ace of spades from a deck of cards. In both cases, you seem to say that it's unknown. But in reality, there is 50% chance that coin toss will get you money while less than 2% chance that picking right card from a deck will get you money. So there is a difference.

Wrong again. If you know nothing about the coin you cannot determine what chance the two possible outcomes have of occurring. You cannot just assume that each has an equal probability. Even putting the bet into the experiment doesn't help your argument. You have just introduced a different circumstance with two possible outcomes. You are unable to determine the probability of winning money if you don't know anything about the coin.

Questions requiring the calculation of probabilities based on things like coin tosses will always specify a random tossing of unbiased coins. The probability of getting a H is 50% and the probability of getting a T is 50%, but only for a completely random toss of an unbiased coin. If you don't know the nature of the coin it is not possible to state the probability of either outcome.

No gods necessary.
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10-11-2017, 06:20 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(10-11-2017 05:32 PM)Henri Wrote:  Oh, as far as understanding that God exists, I don't appeal to any kind of calculations, because that's unreasonable.


So all that probability stuff was just one big self-indulgent wank. Thanks for clarifying.

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10-11-2017, 06:21 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(10-11-2017 06:17 PM)brunumb Wrote:  The probability of getting a H is 50% and the probability of getting a T is 50%, but only for a completely random toss of an unbiased coin. If you don't know the nature of the coin it is not possible to state the probability of either outcome.

No, it's for first toss of a biased coin too. Coin may be biased, you may even know that it is biased, but you don't know how much and on what side, so you still calculate 50/50 for first toss.
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10-11-2017, 06:24 PM (This post was last modified: 10-11-2017 06:38 PM by brunumb.)
RE: Probability for existence of God
(10-11-2017 05:42 PM)Henri Wrote:  Not if God is the one who creates space and time for this universe. It's just one of a features.

Assumes facts not in evidence.

Not one attribute of this alleged God has ever actually been demonstrated. They have all been assigned to it based on human expectations of what they think a god entity should be like.

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10-11-2017, 06:25 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(10-11-2017 06:20 PM)brunumb Wrote:  So all that probability stuff was just one big self-indulgent wank. Thanks for clarifying.

No, it's to show, to those who are open, that probability for God is much much higher than average atheist thinks it is, right from the start.
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10-11-2017, 06:26 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(10-11-2017 06:24 PM)brunumb Wrote:  Not one attribute of this alleged God has aver actually been demonstrated.

Maybe not to you.
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10-11-2017, 06:26 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(10-11-2017 05:26 PM)Henri Wrote:  And also again, if you claim that you don't know probability of a coin toss that means that it's possible that either one of the options is possible outcome. Either one. That's equal probability. 50/50.

It could land heads, tails or edge. That's not 50/50.

Help for the living. Hope for the dead. ~ R.G. Ingersoll

Freedom offers opportunity. Opportunity confers responsibility. Responsibility to use the freedom we enjoy wisely, honestly and humanely. ~ Noam Chomsky
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10-11-2017, 06:28 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(10-11-2017 06:21 PM)Henri Wrote:  No, it's for first toss of a biased coin too. Coin may be biased, you may even know that it is biased, but you don't know how much and on what side, so you still calculate 50/50 for first toss.

No the perception of the odds does not change the actual odds.

The actual odds are all that matter.

You're not very good at this, are you?

Help for the living. Hope for the dead. ~ R.G. Ingersoll

Freedom offers opportunity. Opportunity confers responsibility. Responsibility to use the freedom we enjoy wisely, honestly and humanely. ~ Noam Chomsky
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10-11-2017, 06:31 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(10-11-2017 06:25 PM)Henri Wrote:  No, it's to show, to those who are open, that probability for God is much much higher than average atheist thinks it is, right from the start.

But it doesn't, despite your protestations.

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10-11-2017, 06:31 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
So Henri, you claim that the bibles are true?

Help for the living. Hope for the dead. ~ R.G. Ingersoll

Freedom offers opportunity. Opportunity confers responsibility. Responsibility to use the freedom we enjoy wisely, honestly and humanely. ~ Noam Chomsky
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