Probability for existence of God
Post Reply
 
Thread Rating:
  • 0 Votes - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
08-11-2017, 03:25 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 03:08 PM)Henri Wrote:  Creator can create universe of any size, ...

Assumes facts not in evidence. You can't attempt calculations on the probability of a creator if you assume that the creator exists with certain attributes in the first place.

No gods necessary.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes brunumb's post
08-11-2017, 03:31 PM (This post was last modified: 08-11-2017 03:35 PM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 03:23 PM)Henri Wrote:  50/50, of course. Because I don't know if or how the coin is rigged.

You can't be THAT stupid. IF there is a possibility the coin is rigged, then your calculation is WORTHLESS unless you have data. You have none, so your calculation is worthless.

Quote:Likewise, as far as we know, base calculation for creator's existence is 50/50, and it is impossible to calculate it to be less then that, but when we make additional calculation with available measurements, we actually get almost 100% chance that God exists.

Nope. False. You have no number to base anything on, as you have not demonstrated your concept is valid. You ASSERT your 50/50, but you have no evidence for it. You make it up. It could be (FAR) less than that, (it could be ZERO) if the concept is incoherent. You have no "available measurements" (from the conditions of "no universe"), and you have presented none, and validated none. You're a fraud, and a presuppositionalist.

What a waste of time.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
08-11-2017, 03:34 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
Creators can't "create" UNLESS time already exists.
Where did time come from ?
Creators can't "exist" unless reality includes non-existence.
Where did non-existence come from ?

Dude must be in like 6th Grade.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
08-11-2017, 03:34 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 02:32 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  "What's the difference between something you cannot prove to exist (nor ever be able to effectively test for since it's built into the system that it's impossible) and something that doesn't exist at all?"

Difference is that former can exist but is currently not provable while latter doesn't exist. If that's all we know, there is 50/50 chance either way.

Again, OP is about probability, not about proving with absolute proof the existence of God, since no human can do that.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
08-11-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 03:08 PM)Henri Wrote:  It's just what probability methods allow us to do in order to understand reality based upon incomplete information. Otherwise we wouldn't use probability methods.

Your application of probability methods is nothing more than guesswork. That is not how probabilities are calculated. You DO need information and it must be directly related to the investigation under consideration. You can use classical probability calculations when you know all the possible outcomes and all the favourable outcomes, as in the rolling of dice. Or you can use long run proportion when you have a previous history of events and use them to make a prediction. If it has snowed on Christmas day in 20 of the last 100 years you could estimate the probability that it will snow on Christmas day this year as 20%.

Your estimates have no validity and are just figures plucked from...... the air.

No gods necessary.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes brunumb's post
08-11-2017, 03:36 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 03:23 PM)Henri Wrote:  Likewise, as far as we know, base calculation for creator's existence is 50/50, and it is impossible to calculate it to be less then that, but when we make additional calculation with available measurements, we actually get almost 100% chance that God exists.

As to the 50/50 base calculations that a creator exists, I will disagree with that.

I'm also curious as to these "additional measurements" that you seem to think get you to nearly 100% that a god exists -- what criteria do you base that on?


But as if to knock me down, reality came around
And without so much as a mere touch, cut me into little pieces

Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
08-11-2017, 03:38 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 12:39 PM)Henri Wrote:  Within reality we can reach, it is impossible to calculate less than 50/50 probability that creator who consciously created our universe exists.

At the same time it is possible to calculate almost 100% chance that such creator exists based on available measurements. The more measurements about our reality one uses in calculation, the closer to 100% chance that creator exists it gets.

Why is it impossible to calculate less than 50/50 probability that creator who consciously created our universe exists?

(1) There are two encompassing options - that universe got to exist through unconscious means or through consciouns means, where conscious means include consciousness at or above human level. Human level is taken as delimiting point because humans are highest measurable beings with ability to plan and work with purpose toward complex and new end goal, so that's the best reference point available. Any other being, by what we can measure and observe, is absolutely not able to consciously plan and work with purpose to create a universe, so if an entity with consciousness less of a human's created the universe, that would practically be as if universe got to exist through literal unconscious means, because it would still be through chance.

(2) As far as we are aware, humans cannot reach and measure any conscious means, or at least nothing of essence of any such entity, that is powerful enough to create a universe.

(3) At the same time, humans do measure various aspects of unconscious means within the universe, primarily those that are labeled as elements and laws of nature. But measuring those things cannot in any way affect the probability of the existence of the conscious creator of the universe, because there is no known natural law that says that if creator of the universe exists, then such creator would create the universe within certain distribution pattern of it's various characteristics. Measurements we have at most point to some parts of seeming profile of the creator, but not whether creator exists or not.

(4) As a result, measurable information, or background information, we have about source of creation is symmetric respective to universe coming to existence from either unconscious or consciouns means.

(5) That means that probability that consciouns means, conscious entity, created the universe is 50/50.

Now, this doesn't take into account specific measurements that are available to us about reality. It doesn't need to because none of the measurements changes the probability for the existence of the creator from 50/50 to some less favorable chance.

But, when we start to calculate probability for the creation through unconscious means, using available measurements, then the more measurements we include in our calculation the less chance there is for unconscious means to be the source of creation of the universe.

There are many calculations already done in that direction, many of which are way beyond mathematical possibility, which makes probability for existence of God, based on available measurements, to be almost 100%. To present it somewhat more precisely, they point to 99.9999999...with practically untold number of 9s more...% chance that God exists. It can never be absolutely 100% though, because that's impossible within what we can reach and measure.

(Responding to the original post only. I might have further responses to the rest of the thread in later posts.)

Well, you've convinced me of something.

Specifically, you've convinced me that you are sorely in need of education the subjects of probability and statistics.

Your points (2) through (4) don't really support your argument, so much as attempt to fend off potential counterarguments. You arrive at (5) with basically point (1) as your only contributing premise. That makes your argument essentially:

Premise: Either the universe came into existences through conscious agency, or it didn't.
Conclusion: Therefore the odds of a consciousness creating the universe are 50/50.

Rubbish. THAT IS NOT HOW PROBABILITY IS CALCULATED.

Let's illustrate why this is rubbish with a couple of examples.

Either the universe was created by extra-dimensional reptilian overlords or it was not. Therefore, the odds that the Creator is a reptilian is 50/50.

Either contrails contain mind-controlling gas distributed by the government, or they do not. The odds of this is therefore 50/50.

I'm going to roll a die. Either I get a 6, or I do not. Therefore, the odds of rolling a 6 are 50/50. By the same argument, the odds of rolling a 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 are all 50/50, leading to a total probability of all options of 300%.

In situations with a known weighting, such as rolling a fair die or picking a card at random from a deck, where each outcome is equally likely, we might make such a conclusion. But that sort of uniform distribution would need to be a premise and, moreover, a DEMONSTRATED premise. Without demonstrating uniform distribution, your conclusion is entirely unwarranted. Just because a coin has two sides, heads and tails, doesn't stop some con artist from using a weighted coin that always lands on heads.

And we have no way of knowing the weighting of the two possibilities.

Without starting off knowing the weighting of a random process, it's possible to discover it (within certain confidence intervals) through repeated experimentation and statistical analysis. For example, if we're unsure that a coin is fair, we might flip it a hundred times. If 90 of those flips were heads, we could be highly confident that it was NOT a fair coin, but rather one that had about a 90% probability of landing on heads with every flip. With some calculations of standard deviation, we could lay out a precise confidence interval. It's a pretty powerful tool when we can employ it.

We cannot employ it here, for the simple reason that we can't look at multiple universes, determine whether a conscious god was behind each one, and calculate probability based on that. We don't get to examine multiple universes. By your own feeble efforts, we see that determining whether a god is behind the one universe we CAN examine is... prone to error, at best. The entire process is inapplicable.

I don't know which calculations you are referring to that place the odds of a conscious creator god at virtually 100%. I've seen several such purported calculations, and they are generally worse rubbish than the rest of what you've said, ignoring several fundamental aspects of probability, as well as physics and alternate explanations. But hey, maybe you've found one I haven't seen. So go ahead and post it and I'll give it a critical review and see if it stands up to scrutiny.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 8 users Like Reltzik's post
08-11-2017, 03:39 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 03:34 PM)Henri Wrote:  
(08-11-2017 02:32 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  "What's the difference between something you cannot prove to exist (nor ever be able to effectively test for since it's built into the system that it's impossible) and something that doesn't exist at all?"

Difference is that former can exist but is currently not provable while latter doesn't exist. If that's all we know, there is 50/50 chance either way.

NO, it is not 50/50 chance. There are TWO outcomes, but that does not mean that each has an equal probability. That is where your whole argument breaks down.

No gods necessary.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
08-11-2017, 03:41 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 02:53 PM)true scotsman Wrote:  I don't have to do any such thing. I don't have to prove that the contradictory does not exist. If contradictions could exist, there'd be no proving anything. What probability is there that a square circle exists? Can you calculate that? Well I don't need to calculate it to say that there is a zero probability that square circles exist.

Point of proof is to be able to prove something. Even if you want to show that square circle doesn't exist, that can be mathematicall proven one way or the other. Otherwise it's just an opinion that seems obvious, but maybe isn't.

Someone from previous generations of humans could say that it is impossible for written word to be transimitted through air, invisibly, over any distance, let alone over large distances. And that his or her opinion is a proof, because that's how they see things. But later, new knowledge and application proved that it's not the case.

There is no contradiction that universe can be created either by conscious or unconscious means. Those are two encompassing options based on what we know about reality.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
08-11-2017, 03:43 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 03:34 PM)Henri Wrote:  
(08-11-2017 02:32 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  "What's the difference between something you cannot prove to exist (nor ever be able to effectively test for since it's built into the system that it's impossible) and something that doesn't exist at all?"

Difference is that former can exist but is currently not provable while latter doesn't exist. If that's all we know, there is 50/50 chance either way.

Again, OP is about probability, not about proving with absolute proof the existence of God, since no human can do that.

No, there's no 50/50. It's not about something we can't simply prove to exist (at this time due to our own scientific limitations), it's about being impossible to ever prove exists. If you claim that god exists outside of space and time, and we do actually prove that there is nothing outside of space and time, you'll simply move that goal post and say well, it's another dimension of space and time....like the twilight zone. When that is eventually proven wrong, you'll likely move the goal post elsewhere.


But as if to knock me down, reality came around
And without so much as a mere touch, cut me into little pieces

Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply
Forum Jump: