Probability for existence of God
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08-11-2017, 04:43 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 03:41 PM)Henri Wrote:  
(08-11-2017 02:53 PM)true scotsman Wrote:  I don't have to do any such thing. I don't have to prove that the contradictory does not exist. If contradictions could exist, there'd be no proving anything. What probability is there that a square circle exists? Can you calculate that? Well I don't need to calculate it to say that there is a zero probability that square circles exist.

Point of proof is to be able to prove something. Even if you want to show that square circle doesn't exist, that can be mathematicall proven one way or the other. Otherwise it's just an opinion that seems obvious, but maybe isn't.

Someone from previous generations of humans could say that it is impossible for written word to be transimitted through air, invisibly, over any distance, let alone over large distances. And that his or her opinion is a proof, because that's how they see things. But later, new knowledge and application proved that it's not the case.

There is no contradiction that universe can be created either by conscious or unconscious means. Those are two encompassing options based on what we know about reality.

Actually the point of proof is to validate a claim by appealing to the facts of reality. And the method of proof, logic, assumes the law of identity and it's corollary the law of non-contradiction. If we were to use logic, or math, to try to prove that either square circles exist or that a creator god exists or any other self-contradictory proposition is true, we'd be guilty of a fallacy know as the stolen concept. The stolen concept fallacy occurs when one makes use of a concept, in this case "proof" while denying a concept which it is logically dependent on, in this case non-contradiction.

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08-11-2017, 04:44 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 04:34 PM)Henri Wrote:  
(08-11-2017 03:35 PM)brunumb Wrote:  Your application of probability methods is nothing more than guesswork. That is not how probabilities are calculated. You DO need information and it must be directly related to the investigation under consideration. You can use classical probability calculations when you know all the possible outcomes and all the favourable outcomes, as in the rolling of dice. Or you can use long run proportion when you have a previous history of events and use them to make a prediction. If it has snowed on Christmas day in 20 of the last 100 years you could estimate the probability that it will snow on Christmas day this year as 20%.

Your estimates have no validity and are just figures plucked from...... the air.

Henri: Not really. It would be so if, for example, premise (1) is incomplete. But it is not incomplete, it is all encompassing, no third option can be added to it, and both options are symmetric with respect to outcome.

If you read what I posted and could still reply as you did, then you have NO understanding of probability. Time for you to get on another horse.

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08-11-2017, 04:44 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 02:44 PM)Henri Wrote:  
(08-11-2017 02:01 PM)Cheerful Charlie Wrote:  One can equally calculate there is a 50/50 chance the Universe was created by leprechauns.

No you can't, because what you wrote is just part of the subset of two encompassing options defined in OP, and as such it would have much less probability than 50/50.

More so, since claim about leprechauns is that they are plainly visible on earth under some defined circumstances, we can observe and measure their existence or non-existence at those circumstances, scientifically, and conclude that there is close to 0% chance that they exist since we have proven that they are not present in places and in times according to the claim of their existence.

There is no such claim about creator of the universe that we can measure.

(08-11-2017 02:01 PM)Cheerful Charlie Wrote:  We know the universe exists. But there is no sign a God exists, or a supernatural realm.

There is no known natural law that says that human has to reach and measure everything about reality. So nothing in reality says that if there is no apparent sign that God exists that means that God doesn't exist. It just points to a conclusion that such God doesn't want to allow such sign of His existence to be obvious to your liking, or to be physical, or to be whatever you think it should be.

(08-11-2017 02:01 PM)Cheerful Charlie Wrote:  Stacking up unknowns like this means your calculations are off from the beginning. If one wrongly calculates that there is a God (50%/50%) and a supernatural realm (50%/50%) you have 50% 0f 50% or 25% at best. Now calculate the probability God did or did not create the world (50%/50%) and on in this vein...

There is no stacking. We are using two encompassing options with symetry regarding source of creation of the universe, and with available information, probability for existence of conscious creator of the universe is 50/50.

Modes of creation and other variables are a subset within presented premise, but they don't change calculated probability. In your example, whether God exists in what you label as supernatural realm or not doesn't change probability from the OP. And what is supernatural realm anyway? It's only part of reality that we can't reach yet. For fish living deep in the oceans ground surface is supernatural realm. For previous generations of humans it's wireless transmission of written information.

Yes, my point about probability stands. If you start with the idea that God has supernatural abilities, if such a thing as a supernatural realm does not in fact exist, your probability is 0%. And God is not the only possibility to consider. Maybe a Primal Chaos did emanate the Universe.
The math works for leprechauns and fairies, demiurges or dualistic gods of good and evil. Or perhaps Spinoza's God, or the Process Theology God who did not create the material Universe. And other hypotheticals besides. Demiurges who do not create the material of the Universe as per Plato and others for further example

The way you want to probability means any of these can be calculated to be 50%/50%. So a 50%/50% probability is meaningless. It is a non sequitur. To choose one hypothesis and ignore all others is a simple case of special pleading.

And if you start inquiring into the standard Omni-everything creator gods, there are so many incoherencies, problems and contradictions we can discard those types of God, Gods of Christianity, Islam, Mormonism, Jews et al.

Cosmology has been able to observe a lot of information about the Universe and its beginnings that lead us to probabilities that no God is needed.
But a God that is so encumbered with hypothetical problems is unlikely, of low probability. Slapping the 50%/50% label on a hypothetical God is a rather unfruitful approach, it is meaningless.

And the day will come when the mystical generation of Jesus, by the supreme being as his father in the womb of a virgin will be classed with the fable of the generation of Minerva in the brain of Jupiter
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08-11-2017, 04:47 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 03:38 PM)Reltzik Wrote:  Either the universe was created by extra-dimensional reptilian overlords or it was not. Therefore, the odds that the Creator is a reptilian is 50/50.

Again, you are jamming subset within OP premise. OP calculation is not about defining complicated number of characteristics of the entity that created the universe, but only about one universal characteristic - that there can be assigned a level of consciousness to that entity, including 0 level of consciousness.

Extra-dimensional reptile has much more additional characteristics other than level of consciousness, and as such is just one option within a subset of many different options, not two as OP provides, and probability is not 50/50 but close to 0% since there are many options available.
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08-11-2017, 04:53 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 03:39 PM)brunumb Wrote:  There are TWO outcomes, but that does not mean that each has an equal probability. That is where your whole argument breaks down.

Outcome - creation of the universe - is the same, but there are two sources for the outcome, that's what you probably mean.

You are correct that just having two options doesn't mean that there is an equal probability. Equal probability comes from the fact that these two sources are symmetric - we can change one for the other and outcome will be the same, since that switch doesn't change anything against available information we have.

But I'm talking only about first calculation. If we actually calculate probability based on available information, there is almost 0% chance that universe got to exist through unconscious means.
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08-11-2017, 04:54 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 04:25 PM)Henri Wrote:  
(08-11-2017 03:25 PM)brunumb Wrote:  Assumes facts not in evidence. You can't attempt calculations on the probability of a creator if you assume that the creator exists with certain attributes in the first place.

There is no assumption other than entity that created the universe, either first or second option, can be measured against a level of consciousness, even if only theoretically, including that result of such measurement could be 0.

(08-11-2017 04:47 PM)Henri Wrote:  Again, you are jamming subset within OP premise. OP calculation is not about defining complicated number of characteristics of the entity that created the universe, but only about one universal characteristic - that there can be assigned a level of consciousness to that entity, including 0 level of consciousness.


And that's PRECISELY what you just denied you were doing.


You did not DO any calculation. All you did was spit one ratio, and did not justify it.
Are you feeling alright ?
Your posts are incoherent.
Are you 12 years old ?
2 options doesn't mean 50/50.
It could be 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 / 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999.
YOU have not explained how you cooked up your numbers, HOW YOU KNOW THEY APPLY, and you certainly calculated nothing.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
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08-11-2017, 04:55 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 03:09 PM)brunumb Wrote:  
(08-11-2017 12:39 PM)Henri Wrote:  Within reality we can reach, it is impossible to calculate less than 50/50 probability that creator who consciously created our universe exists.

I really don't understand any of your reasoning. Your application of probability is like nothing I have ever seen and I have actually taught the subject.

Where do you get this figure of 50/50 from to begin with? Are you suggesting that because you can say that either the universe was created by an intelligent being or that it was not, then there is a 50% probability that it was? If that is your reasoning, then consider the following example. If you roll a standard die, you may get a 6 or you may not get a 6. The probability of each outcome is NOT 50%. That is because there are outcomes that have not been considered. There are six different outcomes all with equal probability. The probability that you will get a 6 is 1/6 or 17% (rounded off) while the probability of not getting a 6 is 83%. If your reasoning is based on something else then please correct me.

In order for you to estimate any probability regarding the creation of the universe by some god you need to have a LOT more information about the entire exercise.

This 50%/50% nonsense isn't new. I have seen this sort of bad reasoning on the net before. If you flip a coin, there is a chance it may land on its edge or it may not. Therefore the chances of a coin landing on its edge is 50%/50%. Usual it isn't as bad as my example, but sometimes has approached that. There is probably a name for this sort of nonsense statisticial thinking, but I don't know what it is.

And the day will come when the mystical generation of Jesus, by the supreme being as his father in the womb of a virgin will be classed with the fable of the generation of Minerva in the brain of Jupiter
- Thomas Jefferson

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08-11-2017, 04:58 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 04:34 PM)Henri Wrote:  
(08-11-2017 03:35 PM)brunumb Wrote:  Your application of probability methods is nothing more than guesswork. That is not how probabilities are calculated. You DO need information and it must be directly related to the investigation under consideration. You can use classical probability calculations when you know all the possible outcomes and all the favourable outcomes, as in the rolling of dice. Or you can use long run proportion when you have a previous history of events and use them to make a prediction. If it has snowed on Christmas day in 20 of the last 100 years you could estimate the probability that it will snow on Christmas day this year as 20%.

Your estimates have no validity and are just figures plucked from...... the air.

Not really. It would be so if, for example, premise (1) is incomplete. But it is not incomplete, it is all encompassing, no third option can be added to it, and both options are symmetric with respect to outcome.

Too bad, you lose.
There are all sorts of mathematical systems and logic systems that are totally complete and correct, yet do not obtain in reality. You need also EVIDENCE. You have none.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
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08-11-2017, 04:59 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 03:43 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  ...it's about being impossible to ever prove exists.

Yes, and that's why we use probability methods.

You cannot prove that on a regular coin toss there is 100% chance it will be heads. It is impossible to prove that. Chance is 50/50.

Here also you can't prove it. But you can't prove it either way. You can't prove that unconscious means ultimately created the universe.

By the way, there is no know natural law that humans have to be able to prove that God exists in case God created the universe. In other words, you cannot base the fact that you can't prove God's existence as a an argument against Giod's existence. You can at best deduce that God doesn't want to be provable in ways you expect Him to be.
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08-11-2017, 05:00 PM
RE: Probability for existence of God
(08-11-2017 03:35 PM)brunumb Wrote:  
(08-11-2017 03:08 PM)Henri Wrote:  It's just what probability methods allow us to do in order to understand reality based upon incomplete information. Otherwise we wouldn't use probability methods.


Your application of probability methods is nothing more than guesswork. That is not how probabilities are calculated. You DO need information and it must be directly related to the investigation under consideration. You can use classical probability calculations when you know all the possible outcomes and all the favourable outcomes, as in the rolling of dice. Or you can use long run proportion when you have a previous history of events and use them to make a prediction. If it has snowed on Christmas day in 20 of the last 100 years you could estimate the probability that it will snow on Christmas day this year as 20%.

Your estimates have no validity and are just figures plucked from...... the air.


Don't mention Bayes theorem or you will cause heads to explode.

And the day will come when the mystical generation of Jesus, by the supreme being as his father in the womb of a virgin will be classed with the fable of the generation of Minerva in the brain of Jupiter
- Thomas Jefferson

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