Probability



12032013, 02:11 AM




RE: Probability
(12032013 02:00 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:You never answered my question in theother thread, so I will repeat it here:(12032013 01:51 AM)Aseptic Skeptic Wrote: No, it doesn't change the probability whatsoever. Look up the word. The probability of drawing another white marble is exactly a function of dividing the number of white marbles by the total number of marbles.Instead of showing my example or the mathematical proof to be fatally flawed, you make another straw man argument. I don't understand your notation. If X is the probability that all the marbles are white, then P(X  An)=the conditional probability of the probability that all the marbles are white, given that the first n marbeles are white. 

12032013, 02:33 AM




RE: Probability
(12032013 02:11 AM)Jakel Wrote: You never answered my question in theother thread, so I will repeat it here: Yes it means the probability of something given something. P(X  An) translates into common language as.. The probability that all marbles in the bin are white given n observations of white marbles being drawn from the bin with no observations of other colored marbles being drawn from the bin. 

12032013, 02:42 AM




RE: Probability
(12032013 02:33 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:No. This is exactly my point. P(X  An) does not mean what you think it means, when you define X as you do.(12032013 02:11 AM)Jakel Wrote: You never answered my question in theother thread, so I will repeat it here: 

12032013, 02:58 AM
(This post was last modified: 12032013 03:19 AM by Heywood Jahblome.)




RE: Probability
(12032013 02:42 AM)Jakel Wrote:P(X  A) means in common language, the probability of X given that A has already occurred. If you think it means something else then you are incorrect.(12032013 02:33 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: Yes it means the probability of something given something.No. This is exactly my point. P(X  An) does not mean what you think it means, when you define X as you do. 

12032013, 03:22 AM




RE: Probability
(09032013 01:50 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: This is more than the mind creating some pattern. Observing only white marbles does increase the chance that all the marbles are white.Could you please explain it better? I would like to understand your proof but for now it's not clear to me. Your sample space (call it Omega) is undefined, right? This seems already confusing to me... First of all, is it finite, infinite or even that is unknown? Second, could you please define the events you are considering? First you talk about probabilities, then you take the probability of your probabilities A_n seems to be: "first n marbles extracted are all white", am I correct? What is X? We walk by faith, not by sight. 

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12032013, 03:34 AM




RE: Probability
(12032013 03:22 AM)Kreuzfel Wrote:(09032013 01:50 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: This is more than the mind creating some pattern. Observing only white marbles does increase the chance that all the marbles are white.Could you please explain it better? I would like to understand your proof but for now it's not clear to me. X is the probability that all the marbles in the bin are white. You are correct. An is n white marbles drawn without ever observing a black one(let black mean any other color). The proof works for any finite number of marbles. sample space {all marbles in the bin are white, marbles in the bin are of mixed color} 

12032013, 03:38 AM




RE: Probability
If X is the probability that all the marbles in the bin are white, what is the meaning of P(XA_n)?
We walk by faith, not by sight. 

12032013, 03:53 AM




RE: Probability
(12032013 02:58 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:Yes this is what it means. How can you not see that if(12032013 02:42 AM)Jakel Wrote: No. This is exactly my point. P(X  An) does not mean what you think it means, when you define X as you do.P(X  A) means in common language, the probability of X given that A has already occurred. If you think it means something else then you are incorrect. X=the probability that all the marbles is white that P(X  A) does not mean what you think it means I can only conclude that you did not make this "proof" yourself. 

12032013, 03:53 AM




RE: Probability
(12032013 03:38 AM)Kreuzfel Wrote: If X is the probability that all the marbles in the bin are white, what is the meaning of P(XA_n)?Thank you! At least I'm not the only one confused here 

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12032013, 04:11 AM




RE: Probability
Yes, he did a mistake. Jahblome, maybe you should review you "proof". I am not saying you are wrong, maybe you are right, I don't know, but your proof is invalid. I would suggest you to define carefully the things you are working on and then try to deduce something meaningful.
We walk by faith, not by sight. 

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