Probability



12032013, 07:30 AM
(This post was last modified: 12032013 07:35 AM by Vosur.)




RE: Probability
(12032013 01:04 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: If anyone wants to continue, show a fatal flaw in the last example I provided or the mathematical proof I provided.It has already been done several times. If you still don't understand it, tough luck. 

12032013, 07:53 AM




RE: Probability
(12032013 01:04 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:You didn't answer my question. It is essential if you want to know what is wrong with your conclusion.(11032013 07:22 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote: Assuming an infinite number of black and white marbles, you would be more or less correct statistically in saying that the probability of attaining anyone of the 4 possibilities in the above scenario is 0.25. If, however, the number of marbles is finite, then the probabilities change each time you draw a marble. “Science is simply common sense at its best, that is, rigidly accurate in observation, and merciless to fallacy in logic.” —Thomas Henry Huxley 

12032013, 10:05 AM




RE: Probability
(12032013 03:38 AM)Kreuzfel Wrote: If X is the probability that all the marbles in the bin are white, what is the meaning of P(XA_n)?P(XAn) means the probability of X given that An has already occurred. 

12032013, 10:22 AM




RE: Probability
(12032013 10:05 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:Yes. And X is difined as the probability of all the marbles being white. Your notation does not make sense. If you can't see this, you are not in a position to discuss this subject. How did you obtain this socalled "proof"?(12032013 03:38 AM)Kreuzfel Wrote: If X is the probability that all the marbles in the bin are white, what is the meaning of P(XA_n)?P(XAn) means the probability of X given that An has already occurred. 

12032013, 10:24 AM




RE: Probability
(12032013 07:53 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:Statistics and probabilities are both descriptive and predictive.....I don't see how answering your question invalidates my conclusion.(12032013 01:04 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: The problem we are trying to solve isn't what is the probability of drawing a white marble or a black one. We are trying to answer the question, does observing just white marbles being drawn(without ever observing a blackone) increase the probability that all the marbles are white?You didn't answer my question. It is essential if you want to know what is wrong with your conclusion. 

12032013, 10:30 AM




RE: Probability
(12032013 10:22 AM)Jakel Wrote:The probability that all marbles are white given that n draws has occurred (with each being white), is a perfectly sensical statement.(12032013 10:05 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: P(XAn) means the probability of X given that An has already occurred.Yes. And X is difined as the probability of all the marbles being white. Your notation does not make sense. If you can't see this, you are not in a position to discuss this subject. How did you obtain this socalled "proof"? 

12032013, 10:52 AM
(This post was last modified: 12032013 10:56 AM by Heywood Jahblome.)




RE: Probability
(12032013 10:22 AM)Jakel Wrote:AHH HAH!(12032013 10:05 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: P(XAn) means the probability of X given that An has already occurred.Yes. And X is difined as the probability of all the marbles being white. Your notation does not make sense. If you can't see this, you are not in a position to discuss this subject. How did you obtain this socalled "proof"? I see it now. Yes I made the error you are pointing out. Thank you so much! Here is the corrected proof. Let X = there are no black marbles(black means any other color here). Let An = n draws of white marbles without ever drawing a black marble. Assume that for all n, P(X  An) > 0 and P(An+1  An) < 1. we then have P(X & An+1  An) = P(X  An)P(An+1  X & An)= P(X  An). we also have P(X & An+1  An) = P(An+1  An)P(X  An+1 & An)= P(An+1  An)P(X  An+1). Combining these give us P(X  An) = P(An+1  An)P(X  An+1) < P(X  An+1). Which is another way of saying, P(X  An) is an increasing function of n. 

12032013, 11:12 AM




RE: Probability
(12032013 10:52 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:Now we are going somewhere. Next questions(12032013 10:22 AM)Jakel Wrote: Yes. And X is difined as the probability of all the marbles being white. Your notation does not make sense. If you can't see this, you are not in a position to discuss this subject. How did you obtain this socalled "proof"?AHH HAH! Just to make sure. By "A & B" you mean the intersection of A and B right? How do you get P(X  An+1 & An)=P(X  An+1)? 

12032013, 12:50 PM




RE: Probability
I wouldn't be willing to state without any doubt that all the marbles in the bin are white when I know no such thing.
The future is unknown and unknowable and I personally don't think I would care for it to be otherwise. I guess some people think that "wish fulfillment" or whatever you call it, is a good thing but I just see it as what might be a false promise wrapped in some conclusion, hastily jumped to  maybe out of desperation or fear or something  I don't really know. I do not gamble  don't care about it at all  so no, I wouldn't wager money or anything else that all the marbles in the bin are white. I think I'm just gonna guess that not everyone got that "gambling can be addictive" memo. So, all this entire jerkoff thread tells anyone is that JahwehBlow is ready and willing to jump to a conclusion that the average skeptic just isn't. Good luck with your leap of faith; I don't have that. A new type of thinking is essential if mankind is to survive and move to higher levels. ~ Albert Einstein 

12032013, 01:17 PM




RE: Probability
(12032013 10:24 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:Statistics and probabilities are descriptive only. They describe observations and describe data. They are not predictors of anything and can only be used to interpret past results. If someone makes an assumption about the future (or even the present), they may use the past (statistics) to say something about the probability that the past will repeat itself (statistics), but it does not actually predict what will happen.(12032013 07:53 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote: You didn't answer my question. It is essential if you want to know what is wrong with your conclusion.Statistics and probabilities are both descriptive and predictive.....I don't see how answering your question invalidates my conclusion. So, someone drawing marbles from a bucket might continuously draw white marbles, but their statistical calculations only describe their observation. It makes no prediction about the contents of the bucket. This is also why the probability of white marbles would approach 1 with each draw of a white marble, but not reach 1 (or 100%). You are making the false assumption of using statistics to predict something, and you are just flatout wrong. “Science is simply common sense at its best, that is, rigidly accurate in observation, and merciless to fallacy in logic.” —Thomas Henry Huxley 

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