Probability



14032013, 12:36 PM




RE: Probability
(14032013 12:30 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:And yet, you're still wrong. The likelihood that all the marbles are white is not a function of your draws. It only describes what you have drawn from the bin.(14032013 12:06 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote: You mean that you were not able to predict that event with with statistics? 

14032013, 12:38 PM




RE: Probability
(14032013 12:33 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:No. Just flatout no.(14032013 12:15 PM)Superluminal Wrote: No. Thanks for demonstrating you don't understand probability, and thanks for playing. 

14032013, 12:44 PM
(This post was last modified: 14032013 12:49 PM by Heywood Jahblome.)




RE: Probability
(12032013 08:32 PM)Starcrash Wrote: I've never seen so much effort put into slowing down an argument for skepticism. Star crash, If an atheist says to me he is very skeptical of a claim of a miracle simply on the basis that all other miracles he's looked at turned out to have natural expkainations, I cannot take exception to his reasoning. The marble example was employed to show that the reasoning of the atheist is correct. I'm not trying to prove miracles, but rather show this line of thinking isn't flawed. I will use this line of thinking in another thread. 

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14032013, 12:47 PM




RE: Probability
(14032013 12:38 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:(14032013 12:33 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: Given a certain set of assumption, like how many marbles the bin can hold, you can claim that it is likely all the marbles in the bin are white.No. Just flatout no. Suppose the bin contains 1001 marbles and the first 1000 are drawn and they are all white. Are you suggesting that no meaningful statement can be made about the likely hood the last marble is white? If so then it is you who knows nothing about probability. 

14032013, 12:50 PM




RE: Probability
(14032013 12:47 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:Statistics and probabilities describe the data that has already been collected, and a calculated probability would not be 100%, as the last marble in the bin remains an unknown.(14032013 12:38 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote: No. Just flatout no. You read anything I posted before today? 

14032013, 12:50 PM




RE: Probability
(14032013 12:33 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:I've said this before, BlowMe, as have others, but you seem to be ignoring it. Or incapable of understanding it. Or just too damned determined to keep trolling.(14032013 12:15 PM)Superluminal Wrote: No. Thanks for demonstrating you don't understand probability, and thanks for playing. You are stating your assumption. Drawing more white marbles makes you ASSUME that all the marbles are white, it doesn't really prove that they are, nor does it alter the probability that they are. What they are is a fixed (unknown) fact. The probability of them being all white, or not, is a fixed (unknown) fact. Your ASSUMPTION about what's in the bin is merely an opinion, one that you modify as more and more white marbles are drawn, even to the point that you might be certain they're all white, but it's still just an ASSUMPTION. It's not a fact or a probability, just an ASSUMPTION. "Whores perform the same function as priests, but far more thoroughly."  Robert A. Heinlein 

14032013, 12:53 PM




RE: Probability
Only after the last draw has been made, could the probabilities of each color be calculated exactly. Assuming an infinite number of marbles from which to sample, no probability would ever mathematically reach 1 or 0, only approach it.


14032013, 12:53 PM




RE: Probability
(14032013 12:36 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:(14032013 12:30 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: A statement could have been made about how likely it would be that I would spill my delicious chicken soup on my laptop. I never claimed that you could predict that all the marbles in the bin are white, but rather that the likely hood of all marbles being white is an increasing function of drawing white marbles and never drawing black ones.And yet, you're still wrong. The likelihood that all the marbles are white is not a function of your draws. It only describes what you have drawn from the bin. Yes it is a function of the draws because as you draw white marbles, the number of possible ways the bin can contain a black marble(s) decreases. I gave a simple example that clearly showed this. If I am wrong then point out the flaw in that example. Just saying I am wrong isn't helpful. 

14032013, 12:59 PM




RE: Probability
(14032013 12:50 PM)Aseptic Skeptic Wrote:(14032013 12:33 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: Given a certain set of assumption, like how many marbles the bin can hold, you can claim that it is likely all the marbles in the bin are white.I've said this before, BlowMe, as have others, but you seem to be ignoring it. Or incapable of understanding it. Or just too damned determined to keep trolling. I never claimed that just drawing white marbles allows you to be certain all marbles are white. It only allows you to say that it is more likely all marbles are white. Further if you know how many marbles there are, you can say it is likely that all marbles are white after a certain number of draws in which only white marbles are drawn. 

14032013, 01:02 PM




RE: Probability
(14032013 12:53 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:I already have. Go back and read my posts from before today. You don't understand what statistics and probabilities are. They do not predict anything. No matter how many times you say they do.(14032013 12:36 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote: And yet, you're still wrong. The likelihood that all the marbles are white is not a function of your draws. It only describes what you have drawn from the bin. 

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