Probability
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14-03-2013, 12:36 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 12:30 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 12:06 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  You mean that you were not able to predict that event with with statistics?

A statement could have been made about how likely it would be that I would spill my delicious chicken soup on my laptop. I never claimed that you could predict that all the marbles in the bin are white, but rather that the likely hood of all marbles being white is an increasing function of drawing white marbles and never drawing black ones.
And yet, you're still wrong. The likelihood that all the marbles are white is not a function of your draws. It only describes what you have drawn from the bin.

“Science is simply common sense at its best, that is, rigidly accurate in observation, and merciless to fallacy in logic.”
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14-03-2013, 12:38 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 12:33 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 12:15 PM)Superluminal Wrote:  No. Thanks for demonstrating you don't understand probability, and thanks for playing.

Given a certain set of assumption, like how many marbles the bin can hold, you can claim that it is likely all the marbles in the bin are white.
No. Just flat-out no.

“Science is simply common sense at its best, that is, rigidly accurate in observation, and merciless to fallacy in logic.”
—Thomas Henry Huxley
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14-03-2013, 12:44 PM (This post was last modified: 14-03-2013 12:49 PM by Heywood Jahblome.)
RE: Probability
(12-03-2013 08:32 PM)Starcrash Wrote:  I've never seen so much effort put into slowing down an argument for skepticism.

If I'm not mistaken, Heywood's original argument was that we don't assume the existence of black marbles in the bag until we come across them. They may be there, but without examples of them we take the presumption of their non-existence. And then he wanted to make the argument that we're too skeptical of miracles because we don't observe them. Did I get it? Did I understand that correctly?

Why are there so many arguments here about probability? It's so pedantic. It's like seeing an umpire call a batter "out" because the batter got his second strike, and the ensuing debate becomes whether or not the throw was a strike (rather than whether the conclusion made from the called strike was right or not).

Forgive me for the baseball analogy. I know it isn't universal, but it's the best I could come up with.

Star crash, If an atheist says to me he is very skeptical of a claim of a miracle simply on the basis that all other miracles he's looked at turned out to have natural expkainations, I cannot take exception to his reasoning.

The marble example was employed to show that the reasoning of the atheist is correct.

I'm not trying to prove miracles, but rather show this line of thinking isn't flawed. I will use this line of thinking in another thread.
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14-03-2013, 12:47 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 12:38 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 12:33 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Given a certain set of assumption, like how many marbles the bin can hold, you can claim that it is likely all the marbles in the bin are white.
No. Just flat-out no.

Suppose the bin contains 1001 marbles and the first 1000 are drawn and they are all white. Are you suggesting that no meaningful statement can be made about the likely hood the last marble is white? If so then it is you who knows nothing about probability.
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14-03-2013, 12:50 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 12:47 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 12:38 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  No. Just flat-out no.

Suppose the bin contains 1001 marbles and the first 1000 are drawn and they are all white. Are you suggesting that no meaningful statement can be made about the likely hood the last marble is white? If so then it is you who knows nothing about probability.
Statistics and probabilities describe the data that has already been collected, and a calculated probability would not be 100%, as the last marble in the bin remains an unknown.

You read anything I posted before today?

“Science is simply common sense at its best, that is, rigidly accurate in observation, and merciless to fallacy in logic.”
—Thomas Henry Huxley
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14-03-2013, 12:50 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 12:33 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 12:15 PM)Superluminal Wrote:  No. Thanks for demonstrating you don't understand probability, and thanks for playing.

Given a certain set of assumption, like how many marbles the bin can hold, you can claim that it is likely all the marbles in the bin are white.
I've said this before, BlowMe, as have others, but you seem to be ignoring it. Or incapable of understanding it. Or just too damned determined to keep trolling.

You are stating your assumption. Drawing more white marbles makes you ASSUME that all the marbles are white, it doesn't really prove that they are, nor does it alter the probability that they are. What they are is a fixed (unknown) fact. The probability of them being all white, or not, is a fixed (unknown) fact. Your ASSUMPTION about what's in the bin is merely an opinion, one that you modify as more and more white marbles are drawn, even to the point that you might be certain they're all white, but it's still just an ASSUMPTION.

It's not a fact or a probability, just an ASSUMPTION.

"Whores perform the same function as priests, but far more thoroughly." - Robert A. Heinlein
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14-03-2013, 12:53 PM
RE: Probability
Only after the last draw has been made, could the probabilities of each color be calculated exactly. Assuming an infinite number of marbles from which to sample, no probability would ever mathematically reach 1 or 0, only approach it.

“Science is simply common sense at its best, that is, rigidly accurate in observation, and merciless to fallacy in logic.”
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14-03-2013, 12:53 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 12:36 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 12:30 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  A statement could have been made about how likely it would be that I would spill my delicious chicken soup on my laptop. I never claimed that you could predict that all the marbles in the bin are white, but rather that the likely hood of all marbles being white is an increasing function of drawing white marbles and never drawing black ones.
And yet, you're still wrong. The likelihood that all the marbles are white is not a function of your draws. It only describes what you have drawn from the bin.

Yes it is a function of the draws because as you draw white marbles, the number of possible ways the bin can contain a black marble(s) decreases. I gave a simple example that clearly showed this. If I am wrong then point out the flaw in that example. Just saying I am wrong isn't helpful.
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14-03-2013, 12:59 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 12:50 PM)Aseptic Skeptic Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 12:33 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Given a certain set of assumption, like how many marbles the bin can hold, you can claim that it is likely all the marbles in the bin are white.
I've said this before, BlowMe, as have others, but you seem to be ignoring it. Or incapable of understanding it. Or just too damned determined to keep trolling.

You are stating your assumption. Drawing more white marbles makes you ASSUME that all the marbles are white, it doesn't really prove that they are, nor does it alter the probability that they are. What they are is a fixed (unknown) fact. The probability of them being all white, or not, is a fixed (unknown) fact. Your ASSUMPTION about what's in the bin is merely an opinion, one that you modify as more and more white marbles are drawn, even to the point that you might be certain they're all white, but it's still just an ASSUMPTION.

It's not a fact or a probability, just an ASSUMPTION.

I never claimed that just drawing white marbles allows you to be certain all marbles are white. It only allows you to say that it is more likely all marbles are white. Further if you know how many marbles there are, you can say it is likely that all marbles are white after a certain number of draws in which only white marbles are drawn.
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14-03-2013, 01:02 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 12:53 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 12:36 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  And yet, you're still wrong. The likelihood that all the marbles are white is not a function of your draws. It only describes what you have drawn from the bin.

Yes it is a function of the draws because as you draw white marbles, the number of possible ways the bin can contain a black marble(s) decreases. I gave a simple example that clearly showed this. If I am wrong then point out the flaw in that example. Just saying I am wrong isn't helpful.
I already have. Go back and read my posts from before today. You don't understand what statistics and probabilities are. They do not predict anything. No matter how many times you say they do.

“Science is simply common sense at its best, that is, rigidly accurate in observation, and merciless to fallacy in logic.”
—Thomas Henry Huxley
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