Probability
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14-03-2013, 01:07 PM
RE: Probability
Statistics and probabilities predict nothing. I could let green marbles = hamster and white marbles = human, draw one thousand green marbles, and still be human, regardless of the color of any remaining marbles.
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14-03-2013, 01:11 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 01:02 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 12:53 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Yes it is a function of the draws because as you draw white marbles, the number of possible ways the bin can contain a black marble(s) decreases. I gave a simple example that clearly showed this. If I am wrong then point out the flaw in that example. Just saying I am wrong isn't helpful.
I already have. Go back and read my posts from before today. You don't understand what statistics and probabilities are. They do not predict anything. No matter how many times you say they do.

You can definetly use probabilities to make predictions. Right now there is a comet heading in the direction of mars. It has a 1 in 600 chance of striking the planet. Based on this probability I predict that in 2014 mars will not be struck by that comet. Based on that prediction I would not be in favor of cancelling or delaying any robotic missions to mars.
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14-03-2013, 01:15 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 12:59 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 12:50 PM)Aseptic Skeptic Wrote:  I've said this before, BlowMe, as have others, but you seem to be ignoring it. Or incapable of understanding it. Or just too damned determined to keep trolling.

You are stating your assumption. Drawing more white marbles makes you ASSUME that all the marbles are white, it doesn't really prove that they are, nor does it alter the probability that they are. What they are is a fixed (unknown) fact. The probability of them being all white, or not, is a fixed (unknown) fact. Your ASSUMPTION about what's in the bin is merely an opinion, one that you modify as more and more white marbles are drawn, even to the point that you might be certain they're all white, but it's still just an ASSUMPTION.

It's not a fact or a probability, just an ASSUMPTION.

I never claimed that just drawing white marbles allows you to be certain all marbles are white. It only allows you to say that it is more likely all marbles are white. Further if you know how many marbles there are, you can say it is likely that all marbles are white after a certain number of draws in which only white marbles are drawn.
Still, it's just your ASSUMPTION about the contents. You're not stating fact or probability, just ASSUMPTION.

"Whores perform the same function as priests, but far more thoroughly." - Robert A. Heinlein
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14-03-2013, 01:16 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 01:11 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 01:02 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  I already have. Go back and read my posts from before today. You don't understand what statistics and probabilities are. They do not predict anything. No matter how many times you say they do.

You can definetly use probabilities to make predictions. Right now there is a comet heading in the direction of mars. It has a 1 in 600 chance of striking the planet. Based on this probability I predict that in 2014 mars will not be struck by that comet.
The "one in 600 chance" describes out understanding of its current path and the uncertainty about it. Meaning that while our current understanding leads us towards the belief that it will not strike Mars, there are unknown variables that make that prediction impossible to make at 100% accuracy.

It describes its path and our understanding of its path. You then use that information to make a prediction of whether it will or won't, but the statistics and probabilities do not.

That is because reality is that it either will hit (1) or it won't hit (0), but that is an unknown until it occurs and then we can say that it did (1) or did not(0).

You still did not answer my question as to whether or not you had read anything I had written prior to today. Drinking Beverage

“Science is simply common sense at its best, that is, rigidly accurate in observation, and merciless to fallacy in logic.”
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14-03-2013, 01:18 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 01:07 PM)darthbreezy Wrote:  Statistics and probabilities predict nothing. I could let green marbles = hamster and white marbles = human, draw one thousand green marbles, and still be human, regardless of the color of any remaining marbles.

They are tools to allow people to modify thier actions based on what they think will likely occur. An atheist might not see any need to investigate a new claim of a miracle because he predicts, using probability an statistics, that this new claim will end up like all the others he's investigated. The atheist has good cause to dismiss the claim on its face.
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14-03-2013, 01:20 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 01:18 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 01:07 PM)darthbreezy Wrote:  Statistics and probabilities predict nothing. I could let green marbles = hamster and white marbles = human, draw one thousand green marbles, and still be human, regardless of the color of any remaining marbles.

They are tools to allow people to modify thier actions based on what they think will likely occur. An atheist might not see any need to investigate a new claim of a miracle because he predicts, using probability an statistics, that this new claim will end up like all the others he's investigated.
No. I'll give any claim of a "miracle" its fair chance. If it is based purely on anecdotal evidence though, I will reject it outright and move on.

Is your point in all of this to try and submit a miracle claim? If so, just get to it.

“Science is simply common sense at its best, that is, rigidly accurate in observation, and merciless to fallacy in logic.”
—Thomas Henry Huxley
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14-03-2013, 01:21 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 01:18 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  An atheist might not see any need to investigate a new claim of a miracle because he predicts, using probability an statistics, that this new claim will end up like all the others he's investigated.
And this thread clearly demonstrates that no one here but you would use that method to determine whether or not an alleged "miracle" can be explained naturally.

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14-03-2013, 01:24 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 01:21 PM)Vosur Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 01:18 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  An atheist might not see any need to investigate a new claim of a miracle because he predicts, using probability an statistics, that this new claim will end up like all the others he's investigated.
And this thread clearly demonstrates that no one here but you would use that method to determine whether or not an alleged "miracle" can be explained naturally.
Hell, I don't even understand why anyone would try to make the claim that all miracles necessarily need a supernatural explanation. Most of the "miracles" I here about are nothing more than everyday occurrences. If these all need supernatural explanations, then I don't even know what universe we live in and neither does the theist.

“Science is simply common sense at its best, that is, rigidly accurate in observation, and merciless to fallacy in logic.”
—Thomas Henry Huxley
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14-03-2013, 01:25 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 01:18 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  They are tools to allow people to modify thier actions based on what they think will likely occur.

Thank you for finally admitting that this is just all about what you think, not about actual probability.

(14-03-2013 01:18 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  An atheist might not see any need to investigate a new claim of a miracle because he predicts, using probability an statistics, that this new claim will end up like all the others he's investigated.

What's this got to do with being an atheist? Some atheists are quite skeptical and would investigate because forming an opinion about the claim would require more information. Some atheists just won't give a damn and not bother to investigate because they don't care, other atheists might investigate as a matter of course because they like bashing dumb religious ideas and fake miracles are right at the top of the bashing list. Some atheists might investigate because they're feeling a fear that they've abandoned god and are falling back into theism. Some atheists might just ignore the claim because they have better things to do, like brushing their grandmother's cat's teeth.

All of those atheists, and many more, might investigate or not, might be aware of previous statistics or not.

Or did you already forget that atheism is not a club, not a group, not a belief system - are you lumping all together in your sad little "us vs. them" dichotomy again? (Oddly, this is also just your assumption and not a real expression of reality, just like your misunderstanding of probability - I think I might be starting to detect a pattern for you, BlowMe).

"Whores perform the same function as priests, but far more thoroughly." - Robert A. Heinlein
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14-03-2013, 01:28 PM
RE: Probability
(14-03-2013 01:16 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 01:11 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  You can definetly use probabilities to make predictions. Right now there is a comet heading in the direction of mars. It has a 1 in 600 chance of striking the planet. Based on this probability I predict that in 2014 mars will not be struck by that comet.
The "one in 600 chance" describes out understanding of its current path and the uncertainty about it. Meaning that while our current understanding leads us towards the belief that it will not strike Mars, there are unknown variables that make that prediction impossible to make at 100% accuracy.

It describes its path and our understanding of its path. You then use that information to make a prediction of whether it will or won't, but the statistics and probabilities do not.

That is because reality is that it either will hit (1) or it won't hit (0), but that is an unknown until it occurs and then we can say that it did (1) or did not(0).

You still did not answer my question as to whether or not you had read anything I had written prior to today. Drinking Beverage

I did read what you had to say but didn't find it meaningful. I agree the composition of the bin is such that it either contains all white marbles or it does not. However reality doesn't stand in the way of us making meaningful statements about what the likey composition of the bin is going to be. Probability and statistics don't make predictions, but they are tools which allow us to make accurate predictions.
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