Probability



15032013, 04:00 PM




RE: Probability
(15032013 03:31 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:(15032013 02:40 PM)Aseptic Skeptic Wrote: Hey, BlowMe, why haven't you figured this out yet. No and no. Probability is not an estimate. You are making the "only a theory" mistake, misusing the term 'probability'. Mathematical probability is precise, it is calculated. You are making an estimate, not a calculation. You are confusing the meaning of mathematical probability and estimation. Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims. Science is not a subject, but a method. 

3 users Like Chas's post 
15032013, 04:45 PM




Re: Probability
Ignored again.


15032013, 05:31 PM
(This post was last modified: 15032013 05:37 PM by GirlyMan.)




RE: Probability
(15032013 03:31 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: You are conflating probability with reality. Please explain reality to me. And hey would ya blow me while you're doing it. I've always found that argument particularly compelling. #sigh 

15032013, 06:12 PM




RE: Probability
(15032013 04:45 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote: Ignored again. Short on time so I went after the low hanging fruit. Also wanted to think about what you said. 

15032013, 06:14 PM




RE: Probability
(15032013 04:00 PM)Chas Wrote:(15032013 03:31 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: First, I forgive you for calling me dense. Go look up probability in a dictionary because it is obvious you don't know what it means. 

15032013, 06:18 PM




Re: Probability


1 user Likes TheBeardedDude's post 
15032013, 06:57 PM




RE: Probability
(15032013 06:14 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:(15032013 04:00 PM)Chas Wrote: No and no. Probability is not an estimate. You are making the "only a theory" mistake, misusing the term 'probability'. No, you are confusing two things  the common definition and the mathematical definition. Just like 'it's just a theory' is a confusion of definitions. Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims. Science is not a subject, but a method. 

15032013, 08:05 PM




RE: Probability
(15032013 06:57 PM)Chas Wrote:(15032013 06:14 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: Go look up probability in a dictionary because it is obvious you don't know what it means. I don't have a problem using the definition bearded dude supplied. No where in that definition does it say a probability must be calculated. It says a probability is a quantitative description. Quantitative, meaning related to or expressed in measured numerical values. In a nod to girlyman I change my criticism to you are conflating probability to outcome. 

15032013, 08:48 PM
(This post was last modified: 15032013 09:08 PM by Heywood Jahblome.)




RE: Probability
(15032013 05:39 AM)Jakel Wrote: Your proof is faulty, and you know that. Jakel, you gave a very specific criticism of the proof. I appreciate that. I have neither accepted or rejected your criticism regarding the proof. I've got to do some brushing up before I can evaluate your criticism fairly. You were also critical of my example. That criticism I reject, but since you did not point out a fatal flaw, I don't see the value in arguing it. Would you say the example shows that the probability there are no black marbles is an increasing function of drawing only white marbles? I am asking you to take a side. Am I right about my claim that the more white marbles you draw without ever drawing a black one, the more likely it becomes that you will find that all the marbles are white? 

15032013, 09:07 PM




RE: Probability
(15032013 06:20 AM)Vosur Wrote:(14032013 09:28 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: That's not a claim I am making. Vosur, I am not claiming you can you know a probability without calculating it. I am claiming you can know the probability is increasing or decreasing. Very big difference. 

« Next Oldest  Next Newest »

User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)