Probability



15032013, 04:00 PM




RE: Probability
(15032013 03:31 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:(15032013 02:40 PM)Aseptic Skeptic Wrote: Hey, BlowMe, why haven't you figured this out yet. No and no. Probability is not an estimate. You are making the "only a theory" mistake, misusing the term 'probability'. Mathematical probability is precise, it is calculated. You are making an estimate, not a calculation. You are confusing the meaning of mathematical probability and estimation. Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims. Science is not a subject, but a method. 

3 users Like Chas's post 
15032013, 04:45 PM




Re: Probability
Ignored again.


15032013, 05:31 PM
(This post was last modified: 15032013 05:37 PM by GirlyMan.)




RE: Probability
(15032013 03:31 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: You are conflating probability with reality. Please explain reality to me. And hey would ya blow me while you're doing it. I've always found that argument particularly compelling. As it was in the beginning is now and ever shall be, world without end. Amen. And I will show you something different from either Your shadow at morning striding behind you Or your shadow at evening rising to meet you; I will show you fear in a handful of dust. 

15032013, 06:12 PM




RE: Probability
(15032013 04:45 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote: Ignored again. Short on time so I went after the low hanging fruit. Also wanted to think about what you said. 

15032013, 06:14 PM




RE: Probability
(15032013 04:00 PM)Chas Wrote:(15032013 03:31 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: First, I forgive you for calling me dense. Go look up probability in a dictionary because it is obvious you don't know what it means. 

15032013, 06:18 PM




Re: Probability


1 user Likes TheBeardedDude's post 
15032013, 06:57 PM




RE: Probability
(15032013 06:14 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:(15032013 04:00 PM)Chas Wrote: No and no. Probability is not an estimate. You are making the "only a theory" mistake, misusing the term 'probability'. No, you are confusing two things  the common definition and the mathematical definition. Just like 'it's just a theory' is a confusion of definitions. Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims. Science is not a subject, but a method. 

15032013, 08:05 PM




RE: Probability
(15032013 06:57 PM)Chas Wrote:(15032013 06:14 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: Go look up probability in a dictionary because it is obvious you don't know what it means. I don't have a problem using the definition bearded dude supplied. No where in that definition does it say a probability must be calculated. It says a probability is a quantitative description. Quantitative, meaning related to or expressed in measured numerical values. In a nod to girlyman I change my criticism to you are conflating probability to outcome. 

15032013, 08:48 PM
(This post was last modified: 15032013 09:08 PM by Heywood Jahblome.)




RE: Probability
(15032013 05:39 AM)Jakel Wrote: Your proof is faulty, and you know that. Jakel, you gave a very specific criticism of the proof. I appreciate that. I have neither accepted or rejected your criticism regarding the proof. I've got to do some brushing up before I can evaluate your criticism fairly. You were also critical of my example. That criticism I reject, but since you did not point out a fatal flaw, I don't see the value in arguing it. Would you say the example shows that the probability there are no black marbles is an increasing function of drawing only white marbles? I am asking you to take a side. Am I right about my claim that the more white marbles you draw without ever drawing a black one, the more likely it becomes that you will find that all the marbles are white? 

15032013, 09:07 PM




RE: Probability
(15032013 06:20 AM)Vosur Wrote:(14032013 09:28 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: That's not a claim I am making. Vosur, I am not claiming you can you know a probability without calculating it. I am claiming you can know the probability is increasing or decreasing. Very big difference. 

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