Probability
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15-03-2013, 04:00 PM
RE: Probability
(15-03-2013 03:31 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(15-03-2013 02:40 PM)Aseptic Skeptic Wrote:  Hey, BlowMe, why haven't you figured this out yet.

It's not that your math is so wrong, or your examples so wrong, it's that you have come to the very wrong conclusion that the probability is changing. It isn't. The only thing changing is the observer who is making changing guesses about the probability based on his observations.

Before drawing any marbles, if all he knows is that there are marbles in a barrel, he will have no assumptions. After drawing one white one, he can "know" that he barrel did not contain all non-white, and he "know" it had some white, but he has no idea how many white. After drawing more white marbles (and no other colors at all) he still doesn't "know" anything new, but he starts to make assumptions that the barrel probably contains mostly, or even all, white marbles. Whatever the barrel actually contains is not changing based on the assumptions, nor is it changing based on what has already been drawn (well, it has fewer marbles so it IS changing in that regard, but the original contents are not changing based on drawn marbles).

Your example only shows how people make assumptions from observations.

But you insist that the probability is changing, getting "more likely" that the barrel is all white. The PROBABILITY is not changing; only the guessing is changing.

Why are you too dense to grasp this?

First, I forgive you for calling me dense.

Second, you are making the same error that Chas made. You are conflating probability with reality. Probability is not reality. Probability is a measure or estimation of how likely it is that some event will occur( or has occurred if we are unable to observe it). This estimation or measure can change with the introduction of new information.

No and no. Probability is not an estimate. You are making the "only a theory" mistake, misusing the term 'probability'.

Mathematical probability is precise, it is calculated. You are making an estimate, not a calculation.

You are confusing the meaning of mathematical probability and estimation.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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15-03-2013, 04:45 PM
Re: Probability
Ignored again.
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15-03-2013, 05:31 PM (This post was last modified: 15-03-2013 05:37 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: Probability
(15-03-2013 03:31 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  You are conflating probability with reality.

Please explain reality to me. And hey would ya blow me while you're doing it. I've always found that argument particularly compelling.

As it was in the beginning is now and ever shall be, world without end. Amen.
And I will show you something different from either
Your shadow at morning striding behind you
Or your shadow at evening rising to meet you;
I will show you fear in a handful of dust.
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15-03-2013, 06:12 PM
RE: Probability
(15-03-2013 04:45 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  Ignored again.

Short on time so I went after the low hanging fruit.

Also wanted to think about what you said.
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15-03-2013, 06:14 PM
RE: Probability
(15-03-2013 04:00 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(15-03-2013 03:31 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  First, I forgive you for calling me dense.

Second, you are making the same error that Chas made. You are conflating probability with reality. Probability is not reality. Probability is a measure or estimation of how likely it is that some event will occur( or has occurred if we are unable to observe it). This estimation or measure can change with the introduction of new information.

No and no. Probability is not an estimate. You are making the "only a theory" mistake, misusing the term 'probability'.

Mathematical probability is precise, it is calculated. You are making an estimate, not a calculation.

You are confusing the meaning of mathematical probability and estimation.

Go look up probability in a dictionary because it is obvious you don't know what it means.
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15-03-2013, 06:18 PM
Re: Probability
http://www.stats.gla.ac.uk/steps/glossar...ility.html
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15-03-2013, 06:57 PM
RE: Probability
(15-03-2013 06:14 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(15-03-2013 04:00 PM)Chas Wrote:  No and no. Probability is not an estimate. You are making the "only a theory" mistake, misusing the term 'probability'.

Mathematical probability is precise, it is calculated. You are making an estimate, not a calculation.

You are confusing the meaning of mathematical probability and estimation.

Go look up probability in a dictionary because it is obvious you don't know what it means.

No, you are confusing two things - the common definition and the mathematical definition.

Just like 'it's just a theory' is a confusion of definitions.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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15-03-2013, 08:05 PM
RE: Probability
(15-03-2013 06:57 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(15-03-2013 06:14 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Go look up probability in a dictionary because it is obvious you don't know what it means.

No, you are confusing two things - the common definition and the mathematical definition.

Just like 'it's just a theory' is a confusion of definitions.

I don't have a problem using the definition bearded dude supplied. No where in that definition does it say a probability must be calculated. It says a probability is a quantitative description. Quantitative, meaning related to or expressed in measured numerical values.

In a nod to girlyman I change my criticism to you are conflating probability to outcome.
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15-03-2013, 08:48 PM (This post was last modified: 15-03-2013 09:08 PM by Heywood Jahblome.)
RE: Probability
(15-03-2013 05:39 AM)Jakel Wrote:  Your proof is faulty, and you know that.


Jakel, you gave a very specific criticism of the proof. I appreciate that. I have neither accepted or rejected your criticism regarding the proof. I've got to do some brushing up before I can evaluate your criticism fairly.

You were also critical of my example. That criticism I reject, but since you did not point out a fatal flaw, I don't see the value in arguing it. Would you say the example shows that the probability there are no black marbles is an increasing function of drawing only white marbles?

I am asking you to take a side. Am I right about my claim that the more white marbles you draw without ever drawing a black one, the more likely it becomes that you will find that all the marbles are white?
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15-03-2013, 09:07 PM
RE: Probability
(15-03-2013 06:20 AM)Vosur Wrote:  
(14-03-2013 09:28 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  That's not a claim I am making.

(10-03-2013 01:35 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Please note that before starting the draws the probability of the bin containing just white marbles is .25.
v

I forgive you for lying to me. Smartass

(14-03-2013 09:28 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Does my example show that my claim is true since it works with any finite number of marbles?
No, it doesn't show that your claim is true. You're still doing the very thing I have criticized, which is asserting that you know the probabilities of any given event (see above) without being able to calculate it.

(14-03-2013 09:28 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  The claim I making is that the probability of all the marbles being white is an increasing function of drawing white marbles without ever drawing a black one.
I know that, but it has already been pointed out that this is only an assumption.

Vosur, I am not claiming you can you know a probability without calculating it. I am claiming you can know the probability is increasing or decreasing. Very big difference.
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