Probability
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09-03-2013, 01:23 AM
RE: Probability
(09-03-2013 01:06 AM)Mark Fulton Wrote:  
(09-03-2013 12:51 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  I probably could have chosen my words better there. The logic provides strong cause for anyone to be skeptical of a claim of a miracle.
What logic? What do miracles have to do with marbles?
They are examples of using probability to make statements about unknowns by using what is known.

The marbles you observe allow you to make a statement about the marbles you can't/haven't observed. You draw 1000 marbles from the bin and they are all white, then it is likely that all marbles in the bin are white.

The miracles you investigate allow you to make a statement about the miracles you can't or didn't investigate. You investigate 5 miracles and they all have natural explainations, its likely the next miracle brought to your attention will also have a natural explaination.

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09-03-2013, 01:30 AM
RE: Probability
(09-03-2013 01:23 AM)Phaedrus Wrote:  Rahn is correct.


^ This is all that needs to be said ^

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09-03-2013, 01:31 AM (This post was last modified: 09-03-2013 01:49 AM by PoolBoyG.)
RE: Probability
Looks flawed.

The person in the analogy is aware of (proof off) the existence of white marbles, AND non white marbles.

In reality, people are only aware of reality, the natural. Not magic, or the supernatural, or miracles.

If the User wants to equate the analogy with miracles, it would be better if they worded it by saying something like: "The person has only ever known of the existence of white marbles, and all fundamental laws and evidence to date demonstrates that non white marbles have never existed, and could never exist."
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09-03-2013, 01:39 AM
RE: Probability
(09-03-2013 12:21 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  In fact the more white marbles you draw without ever finding a non white marble, the more likely it becomes that all marbles in the bin are white.

No.

There is in fact, no "fact"...
The statement, "the more white marbles you draw without ever finding a non white marble" has nothing to do with the statement, "all marbles in the bin are white.". If there is truly no view inside this bin, then no one knows anything about marbles being any particular color until each marble is extracted, the possibility is open until the bin is emptied.
The statement, "the more likely it becomes" states something beyond the present.

This is a statement of speculation and conjecture. One might even say it is a leading statement.

I think in the end, I just feel like I'm a secular person who has a skeptical eye toward any extraordinary claim, carefully examining any extraordinary evidence before jumping to conclusions. ~ Eric ~ My friend ... who figured it out.
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09-03-2013, 01:48 AM
RE: Probability
(09-03-2013 01:20 AM)Rahn127 Wrote:  ...
After you pull out 10 white marbles, you then begin to pull out 9 red marbles, then 8 orange marbles, then 7 yellow marbles.
Given this pattern, how many & what color marbles might you expect to pull out next.
...

Oooh! Me, me, me. I know, sir!

6 green marbles.

Do I get a prize?

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09-03-2013, 01:56 AM (This post was last modified: 09-03-2013 02:09 AM by Mark Fulton.)
RE: Probability
If I pulled 999 white marbles out, and I put my hand in to pull the next thing out, I'd be willing to bet it would be a white marble. The reason, however, is that I'd be having a reasonable guess that a 3rd party has put white marbles in the barrel.

If there was no 3rd party, the chance of getting a white marble is the same as puliing out a gerbil....close enough to zero to be zero. Which is what Kim, Phaedrus and Rhan have said.

I'm still confused. What's your point about miracles and white marbles?
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09-03-2013, 02:00 AM (This post was last modified: 09-03-2013 02:03 AM by Heywood Jahblome.)
RE: Probability
(09-03-2013 01:20 AM)Rahn127 Wrote:  I'm sorry, but NO, each item you pull out of the bin has no bearing on the probability of what you will pull out next.
Each time, it is an independent action, just like a roulette wheel.
Just because you see a pattern doesn't mean that the pattern you perceive will continue.

After you pull out 10 white marbles, you then begin to pull out 9 red marbles, then 8 orange marbles, then 7 yellow marbles.
Given this pattern, how many & what color marbles might you expect to pull out next.

What you expect to find has no bearing on the reality of what you do find.
Sure you can make predictions and they may be correct by chance, but what are those predictions based on.

Given 100 bins, all containing random different amounts and colors of marbles how well will your predictive model of guessing what comes next by basing it off of what you have observed so far ?

The answer is you won't be able to predict what is in the bins.
You may find streaks of black marbles pulled and streaks of red marbles pulled but it's all a guessing game, because each time your hand goes in the bin, it's a new unknown that has no bearing on what was pulled before hand.


Lets use your roulette wheel example. Suppose there is a roulette wheel that you cannot see but it is made known to you the results of every spin. Additional info: You know it is either a single zero wheel(i.e. has pocket labeled 0, and pockets labeled 1-36) or a double zero wheel(i.e. has one pocket labeled 0, one pocket labeled 00, and has pockets label 1-36). You are tasked with guessing what kind of wheel it is.

Everytime it is made known to you that the result of a spin was not 00, the more likely it becomes that the roulette wheel is a single zero wheel.

This is the kind of probability statement I am talking about. I am not claiming you can predict the future or that one roulette spin has any bearing on another roulette spin.

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09-03-2013, 02:15 AM
RE: Probability
(09-03-2013 02:00 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(09-03-2013 01:20 AM)Rahn127 Wrote:  I'm sorry, but NO, each item you pull out of the bin has no bearing on the probability of what you will pull out next.
Each time, it is an independent action, just like a roulette wheel.
Just because you see a pattern doesn't mean that the pattern you perceive will continue.

After you pull out 10 white marbles, you then begin to pull out 9 red marbles, then 8 orange marbles, then 7 yellow marbles.
Given this pattern, how many & what color marbles might you expect to pull out next.

What you expect to find has no bearing on the reality of what you do find.
Sure you can make predictions and they may be correct by chance, but what are those predictions based on.

Given 100 bins, all containing random different amounts and colors of marbles how well will your predictive model of guessing what comes next by basing it off of what you have observed so far ?

The answer is you won't be able to predict what is in the bins.
You may find streaks of black marbles pulled and streaks of red marbles pulled but it's all a guessing game, because each time your hand goes in the bin, it's a new unknown that has no bearing on what was pulled before hand.


Lets use your roulette wheel example. Suppose there is a roulette wheel that you cannot see but it is made known to you the results of every spin. Additional info: You know it is either a single zero wheel(i.e. has pocket labeled 0, and pockets labeled 1-36) or a double zero wheel(i.e. has one pocket labeled 0, one pocket labeled 00, and has pockets label 1-36). You are tasked with guessing what kind of wheel it is.

Everytime it is made known to you that the result of a spin was not 00, the more likely it becomes that the roulette wheel is a single zero wheel.

This is the kind of probability statement I am talking about. I am not claiming you can predict the future or that one roulette spin has any bearing on another roulette spin.
Re "Everytime it is made known to you that the result of a spin was not 00,
the more likely it becomes that the roulette wheel is a single zero
wheel."

I agree. But what has that got to do with miracles or marbles? Give me a "light bulb moment"...I'm a bit slow.
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09-03-2013, 02:18 AM
RE: Probability
You still can't make the statement. Just like if you pull out 999 white marbles, there's no guarantee the next one won't be the single black marble.

Induction (essentially what you're talking about) is logically impossible. Induction works well, realistically, when performing tests that have a non-random (that is to say, deterministic) outcome, but as soon as probability is introduced, induction becomes worthless, except for developing a stochastic model (that is, an analysis of probability based on results so far).

E 2 = (mc 2)2 + (pc )2
614C → 714N + e + ̅νe
2 K(s) + 2 H2O(l) → 2 KOH(aq) + H2 (g) + 196 kJ/mol
It works, bitches.
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09-03-2013, 02:21 AM
RE: Probability
(09-03-2013 01:56 AM)Mark Fulton Wrote:  If I pulled 999 white marbles out, and I put my hand in to pull the next thing out, I'd be willing to bet it would be a white marble. The reason, however, is that I'd be having a reasonable guess that a 3rd party has put white marbles in the barrel.

If there was no 3rd party, the chance of getting a white marble is the same as puliing out a gerbil....close enough to zero to be zero. Which is what Kim, Phaedrus and Rhan have said.

I'm still confused. What's your point about miracles and white marbles?


Kim got it wrong because she said, "The statement, "the more white marbles you draw without ever finding a non white marble" has nothing to do with the statement, "all marbles in the bin are white." She left out a very important part. I will bold it for you.

The more white marbles you draw without ever finding a non-white marble, the more likely it is that all marbles in the bin are white.


Phaedrus I have on ignore, so I don't know what he said.

Rhan, I already showed his analogy failed.

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