Probability
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16-03-2013, 08:54 AM
RE: Probability
(16-03-2013 07:02 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(15-03-2013 10:23 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  X is a quantity. An unknown quantity but a quantity never less.

In my example i compute the quantities of X so your claim above is 100% false. I then show these quantities to be increasing while drawing only white marbles. My example would work with any finite number of marbles. Therefore I can credibly claim that the probability of all the marbles being white increases with each draw of a white marble while not drawing a black one regardless if am lacking actual details of the composition of the bin which would allow me to compute X. Show the example is wrong Chas.

Your wasting everyone's time by simply asserting that it is wrong.

You are wasting my time with your continued confusion between mathematics and perception.

You could just show that the example I provided was fatally flawed. That would be a much more effective counter argument then claiming I don't know what I am talking about.
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16-03-2013, 08:55 AM
RE: Probability
(15-03-2013 09:07 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Vosur, I am not claiming you can you know a probability without calculating it. I am claiming you can know the probability is increasing or decreasing. Very big difference.
How exactly do you know that without actually calculating and comparing at least two different probabilities?

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16-03-2013, 08:59 AM
RE: Probability
(16-03-2013 08:55 AM)Vosur Wrote:  
(15-03-2013 09:07 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Vosur, I am not claiming you can you know a probability without calculating it. I am claiming you can know the probability is increasing or decreasing. Very big difference.
How exactly do you know that without actually calculating and comparing at least two different probabilities?

In the example I re-calculate the probability after each white marble is drawn and compare it to the previous.
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16-03-2013, 09:05 AM
RE: Probability
(16-03-2013 08:59 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  In the example I re-calculate the probability after each white marble is drawn and compare it to the previous.
I think I've already pointed out that you merely assumed the probabilities in your example, that you never calculated them to begin with because you do not know how many marbles of which color there are in total.

You should feel free to show me your math if you disagree.

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16-03-2013, 09:06 AM
RE: Probability
(16-03-2013 08:54 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(16-03-2013 07:02 AM)Chas Wrote:  You are wasting my time with your continued confusion between mathematics and perception.

You could just show that the example I provided was fatally flawed. That would be a much more effective counter argument then claiming I don't know what I am talking about.

Without information on the population of balls, you cannot calculate anything but conditional probabilities.

You would have to calculate every conditional probability of every possible population of balls.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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16-03-2013, 09:06 AM
RE: Probability
Heywood, this is getting ridiculous. What exactly are you trying to get at? That you can prove god exists with a few marbles and some arbitrary numbers and representations? Come on.

Keep your rosaries out of my ovaries, and your theology out of my biology.
"If you could reason with religious people, there would be no religious people." --Dr. House
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16-03-2013, 09:26 AM
RE: Probability
(16-03-2013 09:06 AM)Chas Wrote:  You would have to calculate every conditional probability of every possible population of balls.

That's what I did in the example. Its trivially easy with a bin that contains just 3 marbles.
You only have 4 possible combinations.

BBB
BBW
BWW
WWW

If each is as likely as any other then each has a probability of .25

Draw a white marble and you eliminate a possible way the bin could have contained a black one...which means the probability of the remaining possibilities increases.
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16-03-2013, 10:24 AM
Re: Probability
No. The real probabilities don't change, only the ones from your observations.
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16-03-2013, 10:25 AM
Re: Probability
Which is what my rarefaction example shows that you seem to be neglecting again.
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16-03-2013, 11:06 AM
RE: Probability
Heywood, just blow me.

You're obviously not interested in a discussion. Nor are you interested in learning anything.

You came in here with an idea that probably supports another of your irrational proofs for god, you wanted us to buy into the support idea so you could spring your "proof" on us, and you're fighting to the bitter end to keep your support because without it your "proof" is meaningless - despite everyone in the thread telling you how and why you're wrong.

You won't listen, you won't change.

Your dogmatic defense of an incorrect idea is symptomatic of every theist's dogmatic defense of their incorrect theology. I've tried repeatedly in multiple threads to get you to pull your head out of your own ass and get at least one breath of fresh air and you refuse.

Fine, keep it there. I'm done with you, and I invite my fellow forum friends to be likewise done with you in the hopes that you'll take your insipid dogma elsewhere and stop wasting all our time.

Farewell.

And blow me.

"Whores perform the same function as priests, but far more thoroughly." - Robert A. Heinlein
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