Probability
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16-03-2013, 12:54 PM
RE: Probability
(16-03-2013 11:06 AM)Aseptic Skeptic Wrote:  Heywood, just blow me.

You're obviously not interested in a discussion. Nor are you interested in learning anything.

You came in here with an idea that probably supports another of your irrational proofs for god, you wanted us to buy into the support idea so you could spring your "proof" on us, and you're fighting to the bitter end to keep your support because without it your "proof" is meaningless - despite everyone in the thread telling you how and why you're wrong.

You won't listen, you won't change.

Your dogmatic defense of an incorrect idea is symptomatic of every theist's dogmatic defense of their incorrect theology. I've tried repeatedly in multiple threads to get you to pull your head out of your own ass and get at least one breath of fresh air and you refuse.

Fine, keep it there. I'm done with you, and I invite my fellow forum friends to be likewise done with you in the hopes that you'll take your insipid dogma elsewhere and stop wasting all our time.

Farewell.

And blow me.

When somebody presents a compelling counter argument I will listen.
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16-03-2013, 12:58 PM
RE: Probability
(16-03-2013 10:24 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  No. The real probabilities don't change, only the ones from your observations.

What is a "real probability"? It seems you're saying I can't compute a probability without knowing the outcome....which is silly.
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16-03-2013, 01:16 PM
Re: Probability
You calculate a probability for your observations. The probability in reality (in nature) is not truly knowable, it can only be estimated. But you are assuming you know it.
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16-03-2013, 02:17 PM (This post was last modified: 16-03-2013 03:12 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: Probability
(16-03-2013 12:58 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  What is a "real probability"? It seems you're saying I can't compute a probability without knowing the outcome....which is silly.

Hey would ya blow me, you will admit you can't compute it without assuming an a priori knowledge of the distribution.. ... Otherwise you're just another fucking idiot I ran across on the interwebz.

As it was in the beginning is now and ever shall be, world without end. Amen.
And I will show you something different from either
Your shadow at morning striding behind you
Or your shadow at evening rising to meet you;
I will show you fear in a handful of dust.
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16-03-2013, 05:49 PM
RE: Probability
(16-03-2013 09:26 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(16-03-2013 09:06 AM)Chas Wrote:  You would have to calculate every conditional probability of every possible population of balls.

That's what I did in the example. Its trivially easy with a bin that contains just 3 marbles.
You only have 4 possible combinations.

BBB
BBW
BWW
WWW

If each is as likely as any other then each has a probability of .25

Draw a white marble and you eliminate a possible way the bin could have contained a black one...which means the probability of the remaining possibilities increases.
You have no information on the distribution of colors, so you can't compute the probabilities. Maybe only white balls exist, maybe there are 100 colors. You will have to reframe your example.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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17-03-2013, 12:01 AM
RE: Probability
(16-03-2013 05:49 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(16-03-2013 09:26 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  That's what I did in the example. Its trivially easy with a bin that contains just 3 marbles.
You only have 4 possible combinations.

BBB
BBW
BWW
WWW

If each is as likely as any other then each has a probability of .25

Draw a white marble and you eliminate a possible way the bin could have contained a black one...which means the probability of the remaining possibilities increases.
You have no information on the distribution of colors, so you can't compute the probabilities. Maybe only white balls exist, maybe there are 100 colors. You will have to reframe your example.

You're grasping at straws Chas. You don't need to know how many other colors there are. Just lump every other potential color under the generic label of "non-white marbles". If you read my original example I said that black marbles stood for any colored marble that is not white.
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17-03-2013, 12:16 AM (This post was last modified: 17-03-2013 12:32 AM by Heywood Jahblome.)
RE: Probability
(16-03-2013 02:17 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(16-03-2013 12:58 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  What is a "real probability"? It seems you're saying I can't compute a probability without knowing the outcome....which is silly.

Hey would ya blow me, you will admit you can't compute it without assuming an a priori knowledge of the distribution.. ... Otherwise you're just another fucking idiot I ran across on the interwebz.

To compute a probability requires some assumptions. In the example it was assumed that the bin contained just three marbles. It is also assumed that the marbles in the bin can all be colored white, they can all be colored black, or they can be some mixture of white and black marbles. Another important assumption is that all possible combinations are equally likely.

If you can't compute a probability it is unknown to you. Just because a probability is unknown to you doesn't mean you can't make certain statements about it. For instance, you can say that until the last marble in the bin is drawn, the probability that all the marbles are white is less than 1. Now if I can say that the probability of all the marbles being white is less than 1, what prevents me from saying that the probability of all the marbles being white increases with every draw of a white marble while never drawing a non-white one? Why is the former statement legitimate and the latter not?
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17-03-2013, 12:19 AM
RE: Probability
(16-03-2013 01:16 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  You calculate a probability for your observations. The probability in reality (in nature) is not truly knowable, it can only be estimated. But you are assuming you know it.

The whole point of probabilities is to estimate an outcome.
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17-03-2013, 12:22 AM
RE: Probability
(17-03-2013 12:19 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(16-03-2013 01:16 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  You calculate a probability for your observations. The probability in reality (in nature) is not truly knowable, it can only be estimated. But you are assuming you know it.

The whole point of probabilities is to estimate an outcome.
Why don't you just state your premise and conclusion? Why go through all the rhetorical Bull Shit?

Julius
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17-03-2013, 05:39 AM
Re: Probability
No. If I flip a coin, the outcome is not 50/50. The reality is it will be one or the other. The probabilities don't estimate what will actually happen.
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