Probability



16032013, 12:54 PM




RE: Probability
(16032013 11:06 AM)Aseptic Skeptic Wrote: Heywood, just blow me. When somebody presents a compelling counter argument I will listen. 

16032013, 12:58 PM




RE: Probability
(16032013 10:24 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote: No. The real probabilities don't change, only the ones from your observations. What is a "real probability"? It seems you're saying I can't compute a probability without knowing the outcome....which is silly. 

16032013, 01:16 PM




Re: Probability
You calculate a probability for your observations. The probability in reality (in nature) is not truly knowable, it can only be estimated. But you are assuming you know it.


16032013, 02:17 PM
(This post was last modified: 16032013 03:12 PM by GirlyMan.)




RE: Probability
(16032013 12:58 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: What is a "real probability"? It seems you're saying I can't compute a probability without knowing the outcome....which is silly. Hey would ya blow me, you will admit you can't compute it without assuming an a priori knowledge of the distribution.. ... Otherwise you're just another fucking idiot I ran across on the interwebz. Any promise of a postmortem preservation of personal identity is preposterous. (read in Daffy Duck voice) 

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16032013, 05:49 PM




RE: Probability
(16032013 09:26 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:You have no information on the distribution of colors, so you can't compute the probabilities. Maybe only white balls exist, maybe there are 100 colors. You will have to reframe your example.(16032013 09:06 AM)Chas Wrote: You would have to calculate every conditional probability of every possible population of balls. Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims. Science is not a subject, but a method. 

1 user Likes Chas's post 
17032013, 12:01 AM




RE: Probability
(16032013 05:49 PM)Chas Wrote:(16032013 09:26 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: That's what I did in the example. Its trivially easy with a bin that contains just 3 marbles.You have no information on the distribution of colors, so you can't compute the probabilities. Maybe only white balls exist, maybe there are 100 colors. You will have to reframe your example. You're grasping at straws Chas. You don't need to know how many other colors there are. Just lump every other potential color under the generic label of "nonwhite marbles". If you read my original example I said that black marbles stood for any colored marble that is not white. 

17032013, 12:16 AM
(This post was last modified: 17032013 12:32 AM by Heywood Jahblome.)




RE: Probability
(16032013 02:17 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:(16032013 12:58 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: What is a "real probability"? It seems you're saying I can't compute a probability without knowing the outcome....which is silly. To compute a probability requires some assumptions. In the example it was assumed that the bin contained just three marbles. It is also assumed that the marbles in the bin can all be colored white, they can all be colored black, or they can be some mixture of white and black marbles. Another important assumption is that all possible combinations are equally likely. If you can't compute a probability it is unknown to you. Just because a probability is unknown to you doesn't mean you can't make certain statements about it. For instance, you can say that until the last marble in the bin is drawn, the probability that all the marbles are white is less than 1. Now if I can say that the probability of all the marbles being white is less than 1, what prevents me from saying that the probability of all the marbles being white increases with every draw of a white marble while never drawing a nonwhite one? Why is the former statement legitimate and the latter not? 

17032013, 12:19 AM




RE: Probability
(16032013 01:16 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote: You calculate a probability for your observations. The probability in reality (in nature) is not truly knowable, it can only be estimated. But you are assuming you know it. The whole point of probabilities is to estimate an outcome. 

17032013, 12:22 AM




RE: Probability
(17032013 12:19 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:Why don't you just state your premise and conclusion? Why go through all the rhetorical Bull Shit?(16032013 01:16 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote: You calculate a probability for your observations. The probability in reality (in nature) is not truly knowable, it can only be estimated. But you are assuming you know it. Julius 

17032013, 05:39 AM




Re: Probability
No. If I flip a coin, the outcome is not 50/50. The reality is it will be one or the other. The probabilities don't estimate what will actually happen.


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