Probability



17032013, 05:55 AM




RE: Probability
(17032013 12:01 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:The same thing applies.(16032013 05:49 PM)Chas Wrote: You have no information on the distribution of colors, so you can't compute the probabilities. Maybe only white balls exist, maybe there are 100 colors. You will have to reframe your example. Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims. Science is not a subject, but a method. 

17032013, 07:51 AM




RE: Probability
(17032013 12:16 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: Another important assumption is that all possible combinations are equally likely.Which is exactly what I criticized a few pages ago: (16032013 09:05 AM)Vosur Wrote: I think I've already pointed out that you merely assumed the probabilities in your example, that you never calculated them to begin with because you do not know how many marbles of which color there are in total. 

17032013, 11:16 AM




RE: Probability
(17032013 07:51 AM)Vosur Wrote:(17032013 12:16 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: Another important assumption is that all possible combinations are equally likely.Which is exactly what I criticized a few pages ago: And you this is an unreasonable assumption? 

17032013, 01:26 PM




RE: Probability
(17032013 11:16 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: And you this is an unreasonable assumption?My personal opinion concerning your assumption is irrelevant; what matters is that it's unfounded because you have presented no evidence to indicate that it is true. 

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18032013, 12:47 AM




RE: Probability
(17032013 01:26 PM)Vosur Wrote:(17032013 11:16 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: And you this is an unreasonable assumption?My personal opinion concerning your assumption is irrelevant; what matters is that it's unfounded because you have presented no evidence to indicate that it is true. Vosur, if you accept the assumptions then the only way you can deny that the example makes my case is to find fault with the underlying logic. Are the assumptions unreasonable or not? 

18032013, 01:01 AM




RE: Probability
(16032013 09:05 AM)Vosur Wrote:(16032013 08:59 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: In the example I recalculate the probability after each white marble is drawn and compare it to the previous.I think I've already pointed out that you merely assumed the probabilities in your example, that you never calculated them to begin with because you do not know how many marbles of which color there are in total. Given the assumption that each possible combination is as likely as the other, and the fact that there are only 4 possible combinations, I can calculate that at the start of the experiment the probability of each possible combination is .25. I divide the one outcome by the 4 possible ones. I should not have to show such simple maths to you. 

18032013, 01:10 AM




RE: Probability
(15032013 01:46 PM)Chas Wrote:(15032013 01:38 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote: The odds of getting a single exact number (assuming sample size is infinity) is the same as getting a single exact number of any other. Chas, do you not agree that each time you draw a white marble, you eliminate a possible way that a black marble can exist? 

18032013, 06:35 AM




RE: Probability
I got this from the wiki entry on probability
P(AB) is the probability of A given B furthermore P(AB) = P(AnB ) / P(B) (note P(B) in the denominator) If P(B) = 0 then P(AB) is undefined. 

18032013, 06:57 AM




RE: Probability
(18032013 12:47 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: Vosur, if you accept the assumptions then the only way you can deny that the example makes my case is to find fault with the underlying logic.I already answered your question in my last post. I do not accept your assumptions because they are unsupported by evidence. They are unreasonable because you have presented no reason why they should be true. (18032013 01:01 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: Given the assumption that each possible combination is as likely as the other, and the fact that there are only 4 possible combinations, I can calculate that at the start of the experiment the probability of each possible combination is .25. I divide the one outcome by the 4 possible ones.Please read my posts with comprehension next time, thank you. I made a conditional request, saying that I want you to show me your math if you disagree with my claim that you merely assumed that the probabilities are this or that way. Since you do not disagree with said statement, the condition of my request is not fulfilled and there is no math that you could show me. 

18032013, 07:33 AM




RE: Probability
(09032013 01:50 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote: [This is more than the mind creating some pattern. Observing only white marbles does increase the chance that all the marbles are white. Now from wikipedia entry on probability : P(A l B) is the probability of A given B also p(A l B) = P(A n B) / P(B) ( note the P(B) in the denominator ) if P(B) is zero then the expression is formally undefined. With the given scenario, P(An) is either 1 if there are no nonwhite balls, or 0 if there are 1 or more nonwhite balls. If there are no nonwhite balls then P(X l An) = P(X n An) / P(An) = 1 This is a trivial example where if you know there are no nonwhite balls then the probability of all whites is 100%. If there is at least 1 nonwhite ball, then P(An) = 0 (i.e. there are some values of n for which the nth ball is nonwhite) Then P(X l An) = P(X n An) / 0 Since there is a zero in the denominator, the expression is formally undefined. In laymans terms I think this means that the scenario you have described is not ammenable to mathematical analysis in the way you are attempting. Regards Grimesy 

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