Probability
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20-03-2013, 06:37 PM
RE: Probability
(20-03-2013 10:57 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(20-03-2013 05:26 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  You've shown no examples of miracles with or without natural explanations. All you have done is mess up statistics and probabilities.

And probabilities are our estimates of our observations. Occurrences are either 1 or 0 in reality. So either something does or does not exist. Trying to argue statistics leaves you nowhere since you have given 0 observations to back up any claim.

Tell Chas the probabilities are estimates. When I told him that he was adamant they are not.

The probabilities are precise. You are talking about estimates of probabilities. So is Beard.

I remain adamant.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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20-03-2013, 06:42 PM
RE: Probability
(20-03-2013 06:37 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(20-03-2013 10:57 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Tell Chas the probabilities are estimates. When I told him that he was adamant they are not.

The probabilities are precise. You are talking about estimates of probabilities. So is Beard.

I remain adamant.
Will anyone give me odds as to the probability of this post reaching X number of views or replies...... Cool
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20-03-2013, 07:28 PM
RE: Probability



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20-03-2013, 07:55 PM
RE: Probability
(20-03-2013 06:42 PM)Mr Woof Wrote:  
(20-03-2013 06:37 PM)Chas Wrote:  The probabilities are precise. You are talking about estimates of probabilities. So is Beard.

I remain adamant.
Will anyone give me odds as to the probability of this post reaching X number of views or replies...... Cool

We can give you odds, we can give you an estimate. No one can calculate the probability.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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20-03-2013, 07:58 PM
RE: Probability
(20-03-2013 07:55 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(20-03-2013 06:42 PM)Mr Woof Wrote:  Will anyone give me odds as to the probability of this post reaching X number of views or replies...... Cool

We can give you odds, we can give you an estimate. No one can calculate the probability.
That's why I very rarely bet on all those money making games. No
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20-03-2013, 09:04 PM
RE: Probability
(20-03-2013 07:58 PM)Mr Woof Wrote:  
(20-03-2013 07:55 PM)Chas Wrote:  We can give you odds, we can give you an estimate. No one can calculate the probability.
That's why I very rarely bet on all those money making games. No

The money-making games like cards, dice, and lotteries, have probabilities that can be precisely determined.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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20-03-2013, 09:20 PM
RE: Probability
(20-03-2013 09:04 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(20-03-2013 07:58 PM)Mr Woof Wrote:  That's why I very rarely bet on all those money making games. No

The money-making games like cards, dice, and lotteries, have probabilities that can be precisely determined.
Too long odds for me;besides of already got too many vices..... Cool
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21-03-2013, 12:45 AM
RE: Probability
(20-03-2013 06:37 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(20-03-2013 10:57 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Tell Chas the probabilities are estimates. When I told him that he was adamant they are not.

The probabilities are precise. You are talking about estimates of probabilities. So is Beard.

I remain adamant.

Then you and Beard are wrong. I have looked at a lot of definitions of "probability" and none use the word precise. Instead they use words like "measure", or "estimate", or as in the definition Beard provided, "description".

Chas, I think you are just making up this definition of probability to bolster your failing argument. How about you link us to a definition which actually agrees with what you are claiming.

Stop making baseless assertions. Its it up or shut up time.

Vosur, Anjele, Hanoff.....have you learned nothing in my absence?
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21-03-2013, 07:05 AM
RE: Probability
(21-03-2013 12:45 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(20-03-2013 06:37 PM)Chas Wrote:  The probabilities are precise. You are talking about estimates of probabilities. So is Beard.

I remain adamant.

Then you and Beard are wrong. I have looked at a lot of definitions of "probability" and none use the word precise. Instead they use words like "measure", or "estimate", or as in the definition Beard provided, "description".

Chas, I think you are just making up this definition of probability to bolster your failing argument. How about you link us to a definition which actually agrees with what you are claiming.

Stop making baseless assertions. Its it up or shut up time.
"Stop making baseless assertions. Its it up or shut up time."

I concur. Present your miracles or I shall put you on my ignore list so as to shut you up.

Evolve
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21-03-2013, 11:37 AM
RE: Probability
(21-03-2013 07:05 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  
(21-03-2013 12:45 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Then you and Beard are wrong. I have looked at a lot of definitions of "probability" and none use the word precise. Instead they use words like "measure", or "estimate", or as in the definition Beard provided, "description".

Chas, I think you are just making up this definition of probability to bolster your failing argument. How about you link us to a definition which actually agrees with what you are claiming.

Stop making baseless assertions. Its it up or shut up time.
"Stop making baseless assertions. Its it up or shut up time."

I concur. Present your miracles or I shall put you on my ignore list so as to shut you up.

The only thing I have to say about miracles is that if you only observe miracles with natural explanations then it is reasonable to believe all miracles have natural explanations.

Vosur, Anjele, Hanoff.....have you learned nothing in my absence?
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