Probability
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21-03-2013, 02:00 PM
RE: Probability
It only took 29 pages to get you to get to your point so that it could be so easily demonstrated to be bullshit. I mean, you even provide a definition of "miracle" that negates any point you were trying to make. You debunked yourself!

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21-03-2013, 03:15 PM
RE: Probability
(21-03-2013 01:48 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  But if this is the definition you want to use, then there has never been an observed miracle. Which means that until one is observed, it is irrational and illogical to say that they exist/occur.

Extra terrestrial life has never been observed, is it irrational and illogical to say they exist? Until very recently we hadn't observed a Higgs boson. Was it irrational and illogical to spend 10 billion dollars to build an apparatus in the hope that we would observe it?

Your position that it is illogical and irrational to believe something that's never been observed is a bit ridiculous. Obviously you must meant something else.

Vosur, Anjele, Hanoff.....have you learned nothing in my absence?
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21-03-2013, 03:23 PM
Re: Probability
There was mathematical reason to suspect the existence of the Higgs. So much so that it did warrant such a search. And Higgs was mocked when he first proposed it too.

And I don't believe in the existence of life elsewhere as it is currently illogical to believe it exists. Which is why we look for conditions similar to that of Earth instead of building an apparatus to communicate with aliens.
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21-03-2013, 03:28 PM
RE: Probability
(21-03-2013 03:15 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Extra terrestrial life has never been observed, is it irrational and illogical to say they exist? Until very recently we hadn't observed a Higgs boson. Was it irrational and illogical to spend 10 billion dollars to build an apparatus in the hope that we would observe it?

Your position that it is illogical and irrational to believe something that's never been observed is a bit ridiculous. Obviously you must meant something else.
Life on this planet has been observed. Therefore, it's not irrational to think life (as we define it) can exist on other planets. Will we see it in our lifetimes? I don't know if I want to (read Stephen Hawking's comments on intelligent alien life).

I'm not up on the science but I'm going to assume they didn't spend 10 billion dollars on the Haldren Collider without having some scientific evidence to back up their theory that the Higgs Boson existed. And, they have apparently found it. So either they 'made something up' which turned out to be real, or they had some scientific evidence to lead them in the right direction.

Miracles, on the other hand, only seem to exist in stories and always serve the purpose of validating the existence of a god. I've never seen anything that fits the definition you provided. Not even close. So I don't think it's irrational to not believe in a miracle. If I observe something that fits your definition, I'll of course change my stance.

I'd love to be surprised by an occurrence that defies all natural laws. From a safe distance, of course.

If Jesus died for our sins, why is there still sin? If man was created from dust, why is there still dust? If Americans came from Europe, why are there still Europeans?
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21-03-2013, 03:37 PM
RE: Probability
(21-03-2013 03:28 PM)guitar_nut Wrote:  
(21-03-2013 03:15 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Extra terrestrial life has never been observed, is it irrational and illogical to say they exist? Until very recently we hadn't observed a Higgs boson. Was it irrational and illogical to spend 10 billion dollars to build an apparatus in the hope that we would observe it?

Your position that it is illogical and irrational to believe something that's never been observed is a bit ridiculous. Obviously you must meant something else.
Miracles, on the other hand, only seem to exist in stories and always serve the purpose of validating the existence of a god. I've never seen anything that fits the definition you provided. Not even close. So I don't think it's irrational to not believe in a miracle. If I observe something that fits your definition, I'll of course change my stance.

I'd love to be surprised by an occurrence that defies all natural laws. From a safe distance, of course.

I don't have a problem at all with your reasoning. If every purported miracle fails to fit the definition of a miracle then it is likely miracles do not exist. If every observed marble is white, then it is likely non-white marbles do not exist(in the bin you are drawing from). Of course if you observe a black marble then the previous stance is disregarded.

Vosur, Anjele, Hanoff.....have you learned nothing in my absence?
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21-03-2013, 04:14 PM
RE: Probability
Heywood, if you like probability and statistics, you'll most likely enjoy this book:



Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
Book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

I've recommended it here before. It has nothing to do with religion, either side. It's an awesome look at probability, statistics, and how we try to rationalize things that don't make sense (in this case, it's the financial markets).

If Jesus died for our sins, why is there still sin? If man was created from dust, why is there still dust? If Americans came from Europe, why are there still Europeans?
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21-03-2013, 09:34 PM
RE: Probability
(21-03-2013 03:23 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  There was mathematical reason to suspect the existence of the Higgs. So much so that it did warrant such a search. And Higgs was mocked when he first proposed it too.

And I don't believe in the existence of life elsewhere as it is currently illogical to believe it exists. Which is why we look for conditions similar to that of Earth instead of building an apparatus to communicate with aliens.

And you have a mathematical reason to suspect that all the marbles in the bin are white. Each time you draw a white marble, without ever drawing a non white marble, the number of possible ways non-white marbles could have been in the bin decreases.

Vosur, Anjele, Hanoff.....have you learned nothing in my absence?
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21-03-2013, 09:39 PM
RE: Probability
(18-03-2013 06:57 AM)Vosur Wrote:  
(18-03-2013 12:47 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Vosur, if you accept the assumptions then the only way you can deny that the example makes my case is to find fault with the underlying logic.

Are the assumptions unreasonable or not?
I already answered your question in my last post. I do not accept your assumptions because they are unsupported by evidence. They are unreasonable because you have presented no reason why they should be true.

The initial probabilities were assumed using the principle of indifference.

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21-03-2013, 10:28 PM
RE: Probability
(21-03-2013 09:34 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(21-03-2013 03:23 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  There was mathematical reason to suspect the existence of the Higgs. So much so that it did warrant such a search. And Higgs was mocked when he first proposed it too.

And I don't believe in the existence of life elsewhere as it is currently illogical to believe it exists. Which is why we look for conditions similar to that of Earth instead of building an apparatus to communicate with aliens.

And you have a mathematical reason to suspect that all the marbles in the bin are white. Each time you draw a white marble, without ever drawing a non white marble, the number of possible ways non-white marbles could have been in the bin decreases.
Not if there are an infinite number of marbles. Then, no matter how many marbles you draw, all the probabilities remain the same.
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21-03-2013, 11:18 PM
RE: Probability
(21-03-2013 09:39 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  The initial probabilities were assumed using the principle of indifference.

Wikipedia Wrote:The principle of indifference is meaningless under the frequency interpretation of probability, in which probabilities are relative frequencies rather than degrees of belief in uncertain propositions, conditional upon a state of information.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_indifference

Wikipedia Wrote:Frequentist probability or frequentism is the standard interpretation of probability; it defines an event's probability as the limit of its relative frequency in a large number of trials.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_probability
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