Probability
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12-03-2013, 01:39 AM
RE: Probability
(12-03-2013 01:28 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(12-03-2013 01:02 AM)WeAreTheCosmos Wrote:  Unless this bin has some undisclosed property about it, where the contents are dynamically changing throughout the process, drawing marbles isn't going to change the "chances" that all of the marbles are white. They either are, or are not. Your knowledge of the contents doesn't change the probability of drawing a certain colour. The only difference is that you can't ascertain the probabilities without knowledge of its contents.

If you have a bin full of white marbles, and you know that its full of white marbles, you will draw a white marble every time.
If you have a bin full of white marbles, and don't know that its full of white marbles, you will draw a white marble every time.

You are misunderstanding "probability" and "chances". Probability statements are based on the limited knowledge you have about a system and not complete knowledge of the system. If we had complete knowledge we would have no need for probability theory.

Wrong. Probability theory applies even with complete knowledge.

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12-03-2013, 01:42 AM
RE: Probability
(12-03-2013 01:39 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(12-03-2013 01:28 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  You are misunderstanding "probability" and "chances". Probability statements are based on the limited knowledge you have about a system and not complete knowledge of the system. If we had complete knowledge we would have no need for probability theory.

Wrong. Probability theory applies even with complete knowledge.
Maybe on a quantum level I would agree with you...but can you give a classical example?
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12-03-2013, 01:45 AM
RE: Probability
(12-03-2013 01:42 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(12-03-2013 01:39 AM)Chas Wrote:  Wrong. Probability theory applies even with complete knowledge.
Maybe on a quantum level I would agree with you...but can you give a classical example?


Dice, coin toss, card games, lotteries, ...

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12-03-2013, 01:51 AM
RE: Probability
(12-03-2013 01:04 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  The problem we are trying to solve isn't what is the probability of drawing a white marble or a black one. We are trying to answer the question, does observing just white marbles being drawn(without ever observing a blackone) increase the probability that all the marbles are white?

No, it doesn't change the probability whatsoever. Look up the word. The probability of drawing another white marble is exactly a function of dividing the number of white marbles by the total number of marbles.

If the entire barrel is nothing but white marbles, then the probability of the next one (or of them all) being white is 100% (or 1, if you prefer).

If the entire barrel is NOT only white, then the probability of the next one being white is #white/#total, and the probability of the entire barrel being nothing but white marbles is 0% (or 0).

(12-03-2013 01:04 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  I think that the mathematical proof I provided, along with the example I provided, proves conclusively that the answer to the question is yes.

No, your question is poorly worded and your examples prove conclusively that you have no idea what probability means. No wonder you're gullible enough to be a theist and believe in invisible magical men manipulating the universe - it's clear that you think that merely wanting something or guessing something or believing something can actually affect what that something is...

(In case that's not clear, what I mean is, guessing that the barrel is all white, or believing that the barrel is all white, or wanting the barrel to be all white, doesn't actually make it all white, nor does it increase the probability that it will be all white - it's only an expression of your poor judgment, not of probability).

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12-03-2013, 01:53 AM
RE: Probability
(12-03-2013 01:45 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(12-03-2013 01:42 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Maybe on a quantum level I would agree with you...but can you give a classical example?


Dice, coin toss, card games, lotteries, ...
None of those things are truely random in a classical sense. They only seem random to us because we lack information.
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12-03-2013, 01:59 AM
RE: Probability
(12-03-2013 01:53 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(12-03-2013 01:45 AM)Chas Wrote:  Dice, coin toss, card games, lotteries, ...
None of those things are truely random in a classical sense. They only seem random to us because we lack information.


We lack unobtainable information. That is the point.

Truly random events don't have computable probabilities.

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12-03-2013, 02:00 AM
RE: Probability
(12-03-2013 01:51 AM)Aseptic Skeptic Wrote:  
(12-03-2013 01:04 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  The problem we are trying to solve isn't what is the probability of drawing a white marble or a black one. We are trying to answer the question, does observing just white marbles being drawn(without ever observing a blackone) increase the probability that all the marbles are white?

No, it doesn't change the probability whatsoever. Look up the word. The probability of drawing another white marble is exactly a function of dividing the number of white marbles by the total number of marbles.

If the entire barrel is nothing but white marbles, then the probability of the next one (or of them all) being white is 100% (or 1, if you prefer).

If the entire barrel is NOT only white, then the probability of the next one being white is #white/#total, and the probability of the entire barrel being nothing but white marbles is 0% (or 0).

(12-03-2013 01:04 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  I think that the mathematical proof I provided, along with the example I provided, proves conclusively that the answer to the question is yes.

No, your question is poorly worded and your examples prove conclusively that you have no idea what probability means. No wonder you're gullible enough to be a theist and believe in invisible magical men manipulating the universe - it's clear that you think that merely wanting something or guessing something or believing something can actually affect what that something is...

(In case that's not clear, what I mean is, guessing that the barrel is all white, or believing that the barrel is all white, or wanting the barrel to be all white, doesn't actually make it all white, nor does it increase the probability that it will be all white - it's only an expression of your poor judgment, not of probability).
Instead of showing my example or the mathematical proof to be fatally flawed, you make another straw man argument.
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12-03-2013, 02:06 AM
RE: Probability
(12-03-2013 01:09 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(12-03-2013 01:03 AM)Jakel Wrote:  That is simply not correct in this senario.

If you roll a die 3 times and get 6 6 6, you would not (I hope....) argue that the chance of getting a 6 in the next roll is larger than 1/6.

Your die example is flawed because you(presumably) know that the die is properly balanced and each side is labeled with different number that spans the counting numbers 1 thru 6. You in essence know the composition of the die. If you never examined the die and all you could ever see is the result side, then the more times a 6 comes up without any other number other than 6 coming up, the more likely that each and every side of the die is labeled 6.
That might be so, but the probability of drawing n white marbles is still 1/(2^n).
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12-03-2013, 02:10 AM
RE: Probability
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12-03-2013, 02:10 AM
RE: Probability
(12-03-2013 01:59 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(12-03-2013 01:53 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  None of those things are truely random in a classical sense. They only seem random to us because we lack information.


We lack unobtainable information. That is the point.

Truly random events don't have computable probabilities.

Earlier you claimed probability theory applied even with complete knowledge and now you are backpeddling by claiming that having complete knowledge means having all the knowledge that is obtainable.


Can you give an example of a truely random event.
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