Protesters take to the streets
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11-11-2016, 07:16 AM
RE: Protesters take to the streets
(11-11-2016 06:13 AM)Lucipurr Wrote:  Always exaggerating aren't you, Mathilda? You did the exact same on AF by saying that you wouldn't attend your work conferences in the US because it is 'too dangerous' under a Trump administration.

You're making it sound like Trump will become a dictator, right-wing death squads will be roaming the street and secret police will start arresting everyone. It's so fucking pathetic and laughable.

People have accused me of exaggerating in the past when I've been later proved right. Like when I told them that house prices were a bubble and there was going to be a global financial crash for example. Or when I tell them about the Long Emergency which is currently playing out.

The step after next always sounds implausible until you take the next step along the road. Yet each step can seem reasonable.

Those that do not learn the mistakes of history are doomed to repeat them.

The trouble is that things can so easily seem normal again. Humans are very adaptable when it comes to accepting new situations.

I'm not saying what will happen, but what can happen.
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11-11-2016, 07:28 AM (This post was last modified: 11-11-2016 08:06 AM by Dom.)
RE: Protesters take to the streets
(11-11-2016 06:13 AM)Lucipurr Wrote:  Always exaggerating aren't you, Mathilda? You did the exact same on AF by saying that you wouldn't attend your work conferences in the US because it is 'too dangerous' under a Trump administration.

You're making it sound like Trump will become a dictator, right-wing death squads will be roaming the street and secret police will start arresting everyone. It's so fucking pathetic and laughable.

I have no idea how old you are and whether you have ever been close to such things happening. Probably not. People always wake up to the possible realities way too late. Trump is not funny now, he is a danger now.

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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11-11-2016, 07:39 AM
RE: Protesters take to the streets
(11-11-2016 07:16 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  
(11-11-2016 06:13 AM)Lucipurr Wrote:  Always exaggerating aren't you, Mathilda? You did the exact same on AF by saying that you wouldn't attend your work conferences in the US because it is 'too dangerous' under a Trump administration.

You're making it sound like Trump will become a dictator, right-wing death squads will be roaming the street and secret police will start arresting everyone. It's so fucking pathetic and laughable.

People have accused me of exaggerating in the past when I've been later proved right. Like when I told them that house prices were a bubble and there was going to be a global financial crash for example. Or when I tell them about the Long Emergency which is currently playing out.

The step after next always sounds implausible until you take the next step along the road. Yet each step can seem reasonable.

Those that do not learn the mistakes of history are doomed to repeat them.

The trouble is that things can so easily seem normal again. Humans are very adaptable when it comes to accepting new situations.

I'm not saying what will happen, but what can happen.

What's the long emergency?
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11-11-2016, 07:50 AM
RE: Protesters take to the streets
(11-11-2016 07:39 AM)adey67 Wrote:  
(11-11-2016 07:16 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  People have accused me of exaggerating in the past when I've been later proved right. Like when I told them that house prices were a bubble and there was going to be a global financial crash for example. Or when I tell them about the Long Emergency which is currently playing out.

The step after next always sounds implausible until you take the next step along the road. Yet each step can seem reasonable.

Those that do not learn the mistakes of history are doomed to repeat them.

The trouble is that things can so easily seem normal again. Humans are very adaptable when it comes to accepting new situations.

I'm not saying what will happen, but what can happen.

What's the long emergency?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Long_Emergency
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11-11-2016, 07:56 AM
RE: Protesters take to the streets
(11-11-2016 07:39 AM)adey67 Wrote:  What's the long emergency?

Demand for resources exponentially increase over time while those very same resources exponentially decrease. We can see this happening as climate change, the current mass extinction taking place, the destruction of the rain forests, peak-oil, top-soil depletion, over-population, global pollution, massive debt and deficits that debilitate economies and the fact that there are only 100 hundred harvests left

Our economic system needs to exponentially increase in order to function normally because of the fractional reserve system. If it doesn't then we risk a deflationary spiral that is very difficult to halt.

Societies and economies are driven by their supply energy. Increase the available energy and the society can grow more. Unfortunately our supply of cheap energy is finite.

Some suggested reading:

Wiki link:The Long Emergency

The Crash Course: The Unsustainable Future Of Our Economy, Energy, And Environment

It makes for very uncomfortable reading but it's also extremely difficult to argue against. Most people just end up saying that science will find some solution. Yet these are the same people who dismiss scientists telling them about climate change.
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11-11-2016, 08:00 AM
RE: Protesters take to the streets
(11-11-2016 07:56 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  
(11-11-2016 07:39 AM)adey67 Wrote:  What's the long emergency?

Demand for resources exponentially increase over time while those very same resources exponentially decrease. We can see this happening as climate change, the current mass extinction taking place, the destruction of the rain forests, peak-oil, top-soil depletion, over-population, global pollution, massive debt and deficits that debilitate economies and the fact that there are only 100 hundred harvests left

Our economic system needs to exponentially increase in order to function normally because of the fractional reserve system. If it doesn't then we risk a deflationary spiral that is very difficult to halt.

Societies and economies are driven by their supply energy. Increase the available energy and the society can grow more. Unfortunately our supply of cheap energy is finite.

Some suggested reading:

Wiki link:The Long Emergency

The Crash Course: The Unsustainable Future Of Our Economy, Energy, And Environment

It makes for very uncomfortable reading but it's also extremely difficult to argue against. Most people just end up saying that science will find some solution. Yet these are the same people who dismiss scientists telling them about climate change.

It looks very scary indeed I might just have to read this I think.
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11-11-2016, 08:09 AM
RE: Protesters take to the streets
I posted this on another thread but I think its very relevant to this one too so hopefully folk wont think I'm spamming Smile
I think Trump is a dangerous man and I understand peoples fears and I am fully on board with the anti Trumpers but one thing that does irritate me a little about all the protests is the seemingly complete failure of the protesters to acknowledge that in part it was the democrats overconfidence and complacency that caused this to happen. We even have evidence of this in our own backyard here on TTA.
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11-11-2016, 08:16 AM
RE: Protesters take to the streets
(11-11-2016 07:28 AM)Dom Wrote:  
(11-11-2016 06:13 AM)Lucipurr Wrote:  Always exaggerating aren't you, Mathilda? You did the exact same on AF by saying that you wouldn't attend your work conferences in the US because it is 'too dangerous' under a Trump administration.

You're making it sound like Trump will become a dictator, right-wing death squads will be roaming the street and secret police will start arresting everyone. It's so fucking pathetic and laughable.

I have no idea how old you are and whether you have ever been close to such things happening. Probably not. People always wake up to the possible realities way too late. Trump is not funny now, he is a danger now.

Well no, you're wrong about Trump not being funny. As for whether he's a threat or not? I think some of you really are exaggerating. Talk to me again in, say, a year or so and we will see what happens.
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11-11-2016, 08:16 AM
RE: Protesters take to the streets
Double post
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11-11-2016, 08:17 AM (This post was last modified: 11-11-2016 08:22 AM by Mathilda.)
RE: Protesters take to the streets
(11-11-2016 07:28 AM)Dom Wrote:  
(11-11-2016 06:13 AM)Lucipurr Wrote:  Always exaggerating aren't you, Mathilda? You did the exact same on AF by saying that you wouldn't attend your work conferences in the US because it is 'too dangerous' under a Trump administration.

You're making it sound like Trump will become a dictator, right-wing death squads will be roaming the street and secret police will start arresting everyone. It's so fucking pathetic and laughable.

I have no idea how old you are and whether you have ever been close to such things happening. Probably not. People always wake up to the possible realities way too late. Trump is not funny now, he is a danger now.

I think age is a big factor here. Lessons are slowly forgotten as they pass out of living memory. So you get intergenerational cycles as lessons are forgotten and then sharply remembered again.

My father was born during WWII in Germany and this was directly responsible for his ill health due to the poor diet he has as a child. He was brought up knowing how easy it is for people to be fooled by their government because his own parents, aunts and uncles bought into it. My brother is far more trusting than he is though and if he had children then this experience would be completely lost to them. They can go and make the same mistakes that my grandparents made. On a shorter scale this helps explain asset bubbles where exactly the same fallacious economics arguments are repeated a decade or so apart.

In fact economists have observed something similar happening, they have noticed cycles and these are called Kondratieff Waves.

As an example you can apply it to debt. Think of a person who really suffered in the great depression. During it, they realise that debt isn't safe. Deflation makes the debt they hold increase while their wages fall, if they have a job at all that is. When the world recovers people are less comfortable holding debt and avoid it like the plague due to the hardship it caused them. They teach their children not to go into debt and this conditioning sticks to some degree but the next generation take on some debt and nothing bad happens. And the next generation don't see anything wrong with debt at all. Eventually you develop a situation where personal debt is growing exponentially in society and you can't even make any progress in life without doing the same because the price of education and housing etc has risen so much. Then you have another financial depression because servicing of debt is killing of economic productivity and the cycle begins again.
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