Putin's motives?
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29-07-2014, 01:14 PM
Putin's motives?
It appears quite obvious that even despite their denial, Russia has been supplying the "rebels" with munitions and hardware. Seeing how specialised some of the equipment is I would go so far to guess that training has been provided, either that or/and a presence of Russian soldiers.

Whilst it looks like they may be losing ground slowly they have successfully been holding the Ukrainian army off (for now) and destroying their shit (tanks, jets, planes, APC's etc)

Russia is slowly cutting itself off from the US and Europe, or the US and Europe are slowly cutting off Russia. Depending on whose side you take.

Why?
Why is he holding a proxy war with Ukraine?

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29-07-2014, 01:24 PM
RE: Putin's motives?
You should try looking at the situation from Putin's point of view. He had a nice little puppet state on his border with his own hand-picked president. Then, correctly deciding that the EU was a somewhat better choice than Moscow economically, Ukraine broke with Moscow, in effect inviting Putin and Russia to go fuck themselves and threw out his puppet president. Having previously watch Eastern Europe side with the EU Putin now has the the EU border moved 1,000 miles closer to Moscow and a state which is potentially hostile.

What would we do in such an instance?

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29-07-2014, 01:48 PM
RE: Putin's motives?
I think it's a bit of a mistake to assume there's any coherent plan here. From any of the actors.

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29-07-2014, 02:05 PM
RE: Putin's motives?
Time magazine had a good article this week which I've read only half of... therefore I don't know what to think Tongue

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29-07-2014, 02:10 PM (This post was last modified: 29-07-2014 02:15 PM by bemore.)
RE: Putin's motives?
(29-07-2014 01:48 PM)cjlr Wrote:  I think it's a bit of a mistake to assume there's any coherent plan here. From any of the actors.

I disagree. I think that different countries/Europe have plans in place. Adaptable and subject to change... but plans nevertheless.

The question isnt about plans though, its about whats the possible explanation for his (Putin) actions. Why is he willing (up to now) to risk isolating Russia at a time economically where they need cohesion with the rest of the world?

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29-07-2014, 02:14 PM (This post was last modified: 29-07-2014 02:44 PM by Revenant77x.)
RE: Putin's motives?
(29-07-2014 02:10 PM)bemore Wrote:  
(29-07-2014 01:48 PM)cjlr Wrote:  I think it's a bit of a mistake to assume there's any coherent plan here. From any of the actors.

I disagree. I think that different countries/Europe have plans in place. Adaptable and subject to change... but plans nevertheless.

The question isnt about plans though, its about whats the possible explanation for his actions. Why is he willing (up to now) to risk isolating Russia at a time economically where they need cohesion with the rest of the world?

*Pure Speculation* I think he may be testing the resolve of the west. He knows that any sanctions would hurt Europe as bad as they hurt him, thus why the EU has just now gone ahead with them. The Malaysian flight was probably a case of mistaken identity by untrained rebels not acting under any supervision from moscow. That is a problem when you are using extremists to fight your proxy war.

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29-07-2014, 02:26 PM
RE: Putin's motives?
It will be interesting to see if Putin switches off the gas supply to Europe to counter any sanctions imposed by the west. I suppose he may see that ignoring the Ukraine issue could see Russia ending up having NATO on their doorstep.

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29-07-2014, 02:29 PM
RE: Putin's motives?
(29-07-2014 02:10 PM)bemore Wrote:  
(29-07-2014 01:48 PM)cjlr Wrote:  I think it's a bit of a mistake to assume there's any coherent plan here. From any of the actors.

I disagree. I think that different countries/Europe have plans in place. Adaptable and subject to change... but plans nevertheless.

I don't deny that people have plans and contingencies.

Did anyone plan current events in Ukraine? That's a very different statement. Did anyone plan the original protests? The separatists across Ukraine? The Crimean annexation? Open warfare in the east?

(29-07-2014 02:10 PM)bemore Wrote:  The question isnt about plans though, its about whats the possible explanation for his actions. Why is he willing (up to now) to risk isolating Russia at a time economically where they need cohesion with the rest of the world?

Autocratic rulers are prone to reality bubbles. Putin's competent so far as autocrats go, but the nature of the system is such that for the very few people making decisions in Russia, their information is very highly filtered before it gets to them.

Yanukovich was a corrupt incompetent - but so have all Ukrainian leaders been, back to 1991. They kicked his ass out in 2004, but his replacements (Timoshenko and Yuschenko) were just as corrupt and incompetent, and they traded office until 2010, the last election before the unrest, which Yanukovich won again.

This is a roundabout way of saying that I could believe - and rather suspect - that a), no one, particularly the Russian government, could have predicted the regime change in Kyiv, and b), if they did, no one would have predicted how radical some elements of it got in the first few days.
(that was the "ban Russian language and revoke Sevastopol basing rights" period - it was only ever a few cranks who spouted that rhetoric, but that anyone like that was in government at all must have scared them)

So the Russians panicked and seized the place.

Anyway, the Russian economy needs Ukraine (well, especially the military) because the infrastructure is completely tied together, going back to the Soviet days (and longer; the Donbas was Imperial Russia's center of industry).

If you check what the eastern Ukrainian separatists were saying back in March and April, it was all sorts of accusations of Russia not supporting them enough (which I guess you could technically say is a double bluff, but...). And by then the rest of Ukraine had somewhat radicalised as well, so the mobs in Donetsk and Lugansk were successful, but the mobs in Odessa and Kharkhov were beaten down by pro-Kyiv counter-mobs...

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29-07-2014, 02:31 PM
RE: Putin's motives?
(29-07-2014 02:14 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  
(29-07-2014 02:10 PM)bemore Wrote:  I disagree. I think that different countries/Europe have plans in place. Adaptable and subject to change... but plans nevertheless.

The question isnt about plans though, its about whats the possible explanation for his actions. Why is he willing (up to now) to risk isolating Russia at a time economically where they need cohesion with the rest of the world?

*Pure Speculation* I think he may be testing the resolve of the west. He knows that any sanctions would hurt Europe as bad as they hurt him, thus why the EU has just now gone ahead with them. The Malaysian flight was probably a case of mistaken identity by untrained rebels not acting under any supervision from moscow. That is a problem when you are extremists to fight your proxy war.

Further sanctions would do far more harm to Russia (a huge portion of government revenue derives from energy exports to Europe), but the danger of them is that if they're put in place pre-emptively or aggressively then the Russians could very well be looking at a situation where they (think) they have nothing to lose by corresponding escalation...

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29-07-2014, 02:42 PM
RE: Putin's motives?
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014...nst-russia

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