Randomness
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27-07-2015, 10:11 AM
Randomness
This is something so many people get wrong about the word "random" when it is applied with science and/or statistics (I saw it again on a discussion on morality).

Random =/= luck

Random =/= chance

Random =/= uncaused

Random =/= caused

Random =/= chaos


Random means that there is no discernible pattern. Either because there is no cause or because there is no single cause as there can be multiple complex interactions with positive and negative feedbacks. So it could be random like the lottery where there is no pattern as there is no causal reason why any given set of numbers is selected. Or it could be random in the sense that who wins a particular game in any sport is not based on a single factor. Weather, talent, injuries, crowd noise, equipment failure, cheating, etc.

And chaos (in terms of things like the Chaos theory, and I am no mathematician so don't ask me about the math side of this in terms of theory) means not predictable. So, climate patterns are not predictable over long timescales (projecting out climates even a few years is difficult and full of error, which is why we model scenarios instead), but that does not mean there are no causes.

So, chaotic systems are those that appear to have a pattern (like climates) but are not predictable.

And random systems are those with no pattern and are not predictable.

Being nice is something stupid people do to hedge their bets
-Rick
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27-07-2015, 10:24 AM
RE: Randomness
(27-07-2015 10:11 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  ...
And random systems are those with no pattern and are not predictable.

You've met my ex-wife?

Ohmy

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27-07-2015, 10:27 AM
RE: Randomness
(27-07-2015 10:24 AM)DLJ Wrote:  
(27-07-2015 10:11 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  ...
And random systems are those with no pattern and are not predictable.

You've met my ex-wife?

Ohmy

She is more on the Chaos end of the spectrum.

Being nice is something stupid people do to hedge their bets
-Rick
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27-07-2015, 10:51 AM
RE: Randomness
People can't wrap their head around randomness.

That is one reason why we have religion, say "it was meant to be" and "there is a purpose for everything".

It is also the cause of gambling addictions - gamblers are forever hunting that elusive winning pattern. From switching the betting amount on a slot machine up and down or rubbing a "lucky item" all over the machine in the hopes it will trigger something, to carrying dolls and special daubers and whatnot to bingo games.

It's all to appease the unease that befalls us when confronted with randomness. We need patterns, our intelligence is based on patterns.

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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27-07-2015, 11:12 AM (This post was last modified: 27-07-2015 12:06 PM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: Randomness
People also can't wrap their heads around the notion in Probability Theory that while 1 single (example of a) highly improbable event is very unlikely to happen, that in no way means that in general highly unlikely improbable events, (as a sum total of ALL highly unlikely events) happen ALL THE TIME, with very great frequency. Remember the lady on the video with the dice ? We got it up to 1/googleplex probability of witnessing the exact outcome we see, yet , we (as a natural cause) could cause those events to happen as often as we wanted to set up the expeiment.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
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27-07-2015, 11:12 AM
RE: Randomness
(27-07-2015 10:51 AM)Dom Wrote:  People can't wrap their head around randomness.

That is one reason why we have religion, say "it was meant to be" and "there is a purpose for everything".

It is also the cause of gambling addictions - gamblers are forever hunting that elusive winning pattern. From switching the betting amount on a slot machine up and down or rubbing a "lucky item" all over the machine in the hopes it will trigger something, to carrying dolls and special daubers and whatnot to bingo games.

It's all to appease the unease that befalls us when confronted with randomness. We need patterns, our intelligence is based on patterns.

It's also very hard to actually create something that is totally random.

Cryptographers found that out a long time ago....

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
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27-07-2015, 11:42 AM
RE: Randomness
(27-07-2015 10:51 AM)Dom Wrote:  People can't wrap their head around randomness.

That is one reason why we have religion, say "it was meant to be" and "there is a purpose for everything".

It is also the cause of gambling addictions - gamblers are forever hunting that elusive winning pattern. From switching the betting amount on a slot machine up and down or rubbing a "lucky item" all over the machine in the hopes it will trigger something, to carrying dolls and special daubers and whatnot to bingo games.

It's all to appease the unease that befalls us when confronted with randomness. We need patterns, our intelligence is based on patterns.

This is why my husband shoots craps and no longer bothers with the other crap.

When I play slots...I go with the idea that I'll lose. I know I won't win...so I only play with whatever I'm comfortable throwing away and call it entertainment.

I once spent 6 hours in a casino on $40. Now, I consider that a good day, I was entertained thoroughly for the whole 6 hours.

But yeah I see people touching the slot machines. Or chanting...

It's kinda funny.


But as if to knock me down, reality came around
And without so much as a mere touch, cut me into little pieces

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27-07-2015, 11:49 AM
RE: Randomness
(27-07-2015 11:42 AM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  
(27-07-2015 10:51 AM)Dom Wrote:  People can't wrap their head around randomness.

That is one reason why we have religion, say "it was meant to be" and "there is a purpose for everything".

It is also the cause of gambling addictions - gamblers are forever hunting that elusive winning pattern. From switching the betting amount on a slot machine up and down or rubbing a "lucky item" all over the machine in the hopes it will trigger something, to carrying dolls and special daubers and whatnot to bingo games.

It's all to appease the unease that befalls us when confronted with randomness. We need patterns, our intelligence is based on patterns.

This is why my husband shoots craps and no longer bothers with the other crap.

When I play slots...I go with the idea that I'll lose. I know I won't win...so I only play with whatever I'm comfortable throwing away and call it entertainment.

I once spent 6 hours in a casino on $40. Now, I consider that a good day, I was entertained thoroughly for the whole 6 hours.

But yeah I see people touching the slot machines. Or chanting...

It's kinda funny.

Or worse -- playing the lottery and expecting to win......

That's the kind of belief in fantasy that almost makes Scientology look good.....

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
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27-07-2015, 12:55 PM
RE: Randomness
(27-07-2015 11:49 AM)onlinebiker Wrote:  Or worse -- playing the lottery and expecting to win......

That's the kind of belief in fantasy that almost makes Scientology look good.....

Many years ago, I used to take part in a lotto draw with some work colleagues. The woman who organised it was certain we were going to win (we didn't). We used to take turns in choosing the numbers (I think we had to pick 6 from 49 to win). The first time that it was my turn to pick the numbers, I picked combinations that formed straight lines, rectangles and crosses.The organiser was somewhat furious and did not accept my claim that my combinations were just as likely to win as a "random" one.

And, OLB, I have to disagree...even that degree of stupidity doesn't make Scientology look good...
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27-07-2015, 01:18 PM
RE: Randomness
(27-07-2015 11:42 AM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  But yeah I see people touching the slot machines. Or chanting...

Many years ago, I lived in South Australia. At that time, we didn't have casinos or slot machines. Yeah, I'm old.

I used to ride a bike (Kawasaki 900) and went to New South Wales where they did have them. I decided to go to a club to see what the excitement was about. I decided I'd spend no more than $2 - that was about 4 beers worth, back then Now it's not even half a beer. But I spent most of the evening watching other people play. It was truly educational and frightening. I saw people pumping money into slot machines like there was no tomorrow. And they did their little dances and said their prayers. Sad.

I eventually lost my two bucks. I had been 80c ahead and should have quit.

My (now adult) daughter and her partner went to South Oz a few years ago to catch up with Granny and a few relatives. I suggested they visit the pub I used to drink in. I told them to walk in through the back door. They did and came into a room full of slot machines. They moved into the main bar where they were treated to about 18 televisions featuring horse racing from all around Australia as well as greyhound racing. In one corner was a betting agency where you could place your bets.

What had once been a pretty decent pub was now a betting shop where you could drink booze.
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