Rocks with bad intentions
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14-08-2015, 02:19 PM
RE: Rocks with bad intentions
(14-08-2015 02:16 PM)Tomasia Wrote:  
(14-08-2015 01:59 PM)Unbeliever Wrote:  You have no way of knowing this without examining the die ...

A question for you, Tomasia: which of the following series of die rolls is less likely than the other?

[20, 20, 20, 20, 20]

[3, 9, 20, 11, 7]

If you bought a random number generator app that suppose to randomly generate a number between 1-20., and you check it the first time it's a 20, it's a 20 again the second time, etc.... How many times in row would it have to show twenty before you a request refund?

One die may be compared to other dice.

To what are you comparing the universe? Please define it, and compare and contrast three examples. Thank you.

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14-08-2015, 02:20 PM
RE: Rocks with bad intentions
(14-08-2015 02:16 PM)Tomasia Wrote:  If you bought a random number generator app that suppose to randomly generate a number between 1-20., and you check it the first time it's a 20, it's a 20 again the second time, etc.... How many times in row would it have to show twenty before you a request refund?

Answer the question. Which of the following two series of die roll results is less likely than the other?

[20, 20, 20, 20, 20]

[3, 9, 20, 11, 7]

"Owl," said Rabbit shortly, "you and I have brains. The others have fluff. If there is any thinking to be done in this Forest - and when I say thinking I mean thinking - you and I must do it."
- A. A. Milne, The House at Pooh Corner
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14-08-2015, 02:22 PM
Rocks with bad intentions
(14-08-2015 02:20 PM)Unbeliever Wrote:  
(14-08-2015 02:16 PM)Tomasia Wrote:  If you bought a random number generator app that suppose to randomly generate a number between 1-20., and you check it the first time it's a 20, it's a 20 again the second time, etc.... How many times in row would it have to show twenty before you a request refund?

Answer the question. Which of the following two series of die roll results is less likely than the other?

[20, 20, 20, 20, 20]

[3, 9, 20, 11, 7]

Assuming they are rolled by a fair die, they are just as likely.

Now answer mine.

"Tell me, muse, of the storyteller who has been thrust to the edge of the world, both an infant and an ancient, and through him reveal everyman." ---Homer the aged poet.

"In Him was life, and the life was the Light of men. The Light shines in the darkness, and the darkness did not comprehend it."
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14-08-2015, 02:26 PM
RE: Rocks with bad intentions
(14-08-2015 02:22 PM)Tomasia Wrote:  Assuming they are rolled by a fair die, they are just as likely.

Now answer mine.

Good. So you understand that much, at least.

Now, to answer your question: if I had a die that rolled nothing but twenties, I would examine the die. Merely turning up an unlikely result, no matter how unlikely, is not proof of being weighted.

"Owl," said Rabbit shortly, "you and I have brains. The others have fluff. If there is any thinking to be done in this Forest - and when I say thinking I mean thinking - you and I must do it."
- A. A. Milne, The House at Pooh Corner
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14-08-2015, 02:28 PM
Rocks with bad intentions
(14-08-2015 02:19 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(14-08-2015 02:16 PM)Tomasia Wrote:  If you bought a random number generator app that suppose to randomly generate a number between 1-20., and you check it the first time it's a 20, it's a 20 again the second time, etc.... How many times in row would it have to show twenty before you a request refund?

One die may be compared to other dice.

To what are you comparing the universe? Please define it, and compare and contrast three examples. Thank you.

We contrasted it with two examples the dice, and the weasel program. If a need for third one arises I'll keep you informed.

"Tell me, muse, of the storyteller who has been thrust to the edge of the world, both an infant and an ancient, and through him reveal everyman." ---Homer the aged poet.

"In Him was life, and the life was the Light of men. The Light shines in the darkness, and the darkness did not comprehend it."
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14-08-2015, 02:30 PM
RE: Rocks with bad intentions
(14-08-2015 02:26 PM)Unbeliever Wrote:  
(14-08-2015 02:22 PM)Tomasia Wrote:  Assuming they are rolled by a fair die, they are just as likely.

Now answer mine.

Good. So you understand that much, at least.

Now, to answer your question: if I had a die that rolled nothing but twenties, I would examine the die. Merely turning up an unlikely result, no matter how unlikely, is not proof of being weighted.

Of course, the problem with ol' Tommy's idea is that he's declaring, by self-satisfied fiat, that of course he can treat the universe like a series of dice rolls, notwithstanding that he doesn't know what the dice looks like, how it behaves, where it came from, or even whether it exists. IF it's loaded, THEN it's loaded, and no power in the void will stop him from beginning from that 'if' statement rather than needing to arrive at that 'if' statement...

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14-08-2015, 02:33 PM
RE: Rocks with bad intentions
(14-08-2015 02:30 PM)cjlr Wrote:  Of course, the problem with ol' Tommy's idea is that he's declaring, by self-satisfied fiat, that of course he can treat the universe like a series of dice rolls, notwithstanding that he doesn't know what the dice looks like, how it behaves, where it came from, or even whether it exists. IF it's loaded, THEN it's loaded, and no power in the void will stop him from beginning from that 'if' statement rather than needing to arrive at that 'if' statement...

Quite. I raised this issue myself in an earlier post. We have nothing more than speculation to indicate that the universe could ever have been different at all, or that, even if it could have been different, the possibilities would necessarily have been disparate enough as to make the formation of life unlikely.

And even if the odds were against life, to try and claim that us ending up here anyway indicates any sort of supernatural agency's involvement is the Texas sharpshooter fallacy in its purest form.

"Owl," said Rabbit shortly, "you and I have brains. The others have fluff. If there is any thinking to be done in this Forest - and when I say thinking I mean thinking - you and I must do it."
- A. A. Milne, The House at Pooh Corner
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14-08-2015, 02:36 PM
Rocks with bad intentions
(14-08-2015 12:22 PM)Octapulse Wrote:  
(12-08-2015 06:05 AM)Tomasia Wrote:  What's there to respond to? Was I suppose to disagree with it?

If you chose not to answer his response to your claim that there are no flukes when he provided an Excellent example of one, then you either cannot defend your position or are too lazy to. I vote for the former

Flukes happen all the time. Sometime ago I was visiting ATL, and I randomly ran in to an old military friend at club there. He wasn't from ATL either. I'd consider that a fluke.

"Tell me, muse, of the storyteller who has been thrust to the edge of the world, both an infant and an ancient, and through him reveal everyman." ---Homer the aged poet.

"In Him was life, and the life was the Light of men. The Light shines in the darkness, and the darkness did not comprehend it."
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14-08-2015, 02:51 PM
RE: Rocks with bad intentions
(14-08-2015 02:36 PM)Tomasia Wrote:  
(14-08-2015 12:22 PM)Octapulse Wrote:  If you chose not to answer his response to your claim that there are no flukes when he provided an Excellent example of one, then you either cannot defend your position or are too lazy to. I vote for the former

Flukes happen all the time. Sometime ago I was visiting ATL, and I randomly ran in to an old military friend at club there. He wasn't from ATL either. I'd consider that a fluke.

Maybe it was fate that brought you two together. It was your destiny McFly.
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14-08-2015, 02:57 PM
Rocks with bad intentions
(14-08-2015 02:26 PM)Unbeliever Wrote:  
(14-08-2015 02:22 PM)Tomasia Wrote:  Assuming they are rolled by a fair die, they are just as likely.

Now answer mine.

Good. So you understand that much, at least.

Now, to answer your question: if I had a die that rolled nothing but twenties, I would examine the die. Merely turning up an unlikely result, no matter how unlikely, is not proof of being weighted.

Perhaps not proof, but would a hundred 20s in a row, be evidence of a weighted die? While that may not be enough to know that it was weighted, would it be enough to believe it was weighted?

"Tell me, muse, of the storyteller who has been thrust to the edge of the world, both an infant and an ancient, and through him reveal everyman." ---Homer the aged poet.

"In Him was life, and the life was the Light of men. The Light shines in the darkness, and the darkness did not comprehend it."
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