Russia Could Invade Ukraine Within Hours.
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03-04-2014, 12:59 PM
RE: Russia Could Invade Ukraine Within Hours.
(03-04-2014 12:54 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(03-04-2014 12:48 PM)Carlo_The_Bugsmasher_Driver Wrote:  Only a fool would poo poo 40,000 troops on a border along with air support plus both sides withdrawing diplomatic relations and NATO rallying for a deployment to that region.

They've been there for weeks. I agree they cannot remain indefinitely. But there is far more than one possible outcome.

(03-04-2014 12:48 PM)Carlo_The_Bugsmasher_Driver Wrote:  No this thing could go hot in a matter of hours or days. Hopefully Vlad will come to his senses and pull forces from the region. If he doesn't, NATO may have no choice but to intervene.

Hours... or days... or weeks... or never...

As for NATO, they have no logistical capability to deploy anything remotely close to the Russian-Ukrainian border. Could they defend Lviv? Absolutely. Luhansk? Not a chance.

B-52s and cruise missiles could put a serious hurt on the Sovi Russian forces.

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03-04-2014, 01:29 PM
RE: Russia Could Invade Ukraine Within Hours.
I'm not sure whether an invasion of Ukraine would prompt NATO action...but the problem is with the precedent it could set for Putin to invade other neighboring countries on NATO's "don't care list." It's still a man clamoring to be dictator consolidating his power, which has NEVER gone well in Russia.

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03-04-2014, 01:40 PM
RE: Russia Could Invade Ukraine Within Hours.
(03-04-2014 01:29 PM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  I'm not sure whether an invasion of Ukraine would prompt NATO action...but the problem is with the precedent it could set for Putin to invade other neighboring countries on NATO's "don't care list." It's still a man clamoring to be dictator consolidating his power, which has NEVER gone well in Russia.

Well, but let's review the options. Russia's near abroad consists of...

Norway: NATO member.
Finland: EU member.
Sweden: EU member.
Estonia: NATO/EU member.
Latvia: NATO/EU member.
Lithuania: NATO/EU member.
Belarus: Russian ally.
Poland: NATO/EU member.
Ukraine: ???
Slovakia: NATO/EU member.
Hungary: NATO/EU member.
Romania: NATO/EU member.
Moldova: ??? (but lots of Ukraine in the way)
Georgia: neutered.
Armenia: Russian ally.
Azerbaijan: Turkish ally (NATO member).
Kazakhstan: Russian leaning.
Tajikistan: Russian leaning.
Kyrgyzstan: Russian leaning.
Uzbekistan: ???
Turkmenistan: ???
China: nope.
Mongolia: ???
North Korea: nope.
South Korea: nope.
Japan: nope.

Even the ones that aren't NATO/EU members are either powerful or hostile or both. The "don't care" list is pretty damn short.

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03-04-2014, 01:57 PM
RE: Russia Could Invade Ukraine Within Hours.
(03-04-2014 01:40 PM)cjlr Wrote:  Even the ones that aren't NATO/EU members are either powerful or hostile or both. The "don't care" list is pretty damn short.

Yeah, tell it to the ones that are on that "damn short" list, I'm sure they will be relieved.

Look, I understand the way you are approaching this topic, I'm just saying it's never a good thing to have somebody like Putin consolidate his power through actions like these. We don't know what kind of shit it might set up further down the road, even if the current consequences are minimal.

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03-04-2014, 01:59 PM (This post was last modified: 03-04-2014 02:02 PM by Mathilda.)
RE: Russia Could Invade Ukraine Within Hours.
Put Finland down as a 'nope' as well.

Winter war statistics. Russia's attempt to invade Finland between 30th November 1939 to 13th March 1940.

Finnish strength vs Soviet Russian strength
  • 337,000–346,500 men vs 425,640–760,578 men. 998,100 men (overall)
  • 32 tanks vs 2,514–6,541 tanks
  • 114 aircraft vs 3,880 aircraft

Finnish casualties vs Soviet casualties
  • 25,904 dead or missing vs 126,875 dead or missing
  • 43,557 wounded vs 188,671 wounded, concussed or burned
  • 1,000 captured vs 5,572 captured
  • 20–30 tanks lost vs 3,543 tanks lost
  • 62 aircraft lost vs 261–515 aircraft lost
  • 70,000 total casualties vs 323,000 total casualties

No one fucks with the Finnish.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War
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03-04-2014, 02:02 PM
RE: Russia Could Invade Ukraine Within Hours.
(03-04-2014 01:59 PM)Mathilda Wrote:  Put Finland down as a 'nope' as well.

Winter war statistics. Russia's attempt to invade Finland between 30th November 1939 to 13th March 1940.

Finnish strength vs Soviet Russian strength
  • 337,000–346,500 men vs 425,640–760,578 men. 998,100 men (overall)
  • 32 tanks vs 2,514–6,541 tanks
  • 114 aircraft vs 3,880 aircraft

Finnish casualties vs Soviet casualties
  • 25,904 dead or missing vs 126,875 dead or missing
  • 43,557 wounded vs 188,671 wounded, concussed or burned
  • 1,000 captured vs 5,572 captured
  • 20–30 tanks lost vs 3,543 tanks lost
  • 62 aircraft lost vs 261–515 aircraft lost
  • 70,000 total casualties vs 323,000 total casualties

No one fucks with the Finnish.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

In all fairness, the fact that Stalin had just done a HUGE purge of the Soviet upper military command just before invading Finland was mostly responsible for that outcome.

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03-04-2014, 02:31 PM
RE: Russia Could Invade Ukraine Within Hours.
(03-04-2014 01:57 PM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  
(03-04-2014 01:40 PM)cjlr Wrote:  Even the ones that aren't NATO/EU members are either powerful or hostile or both. The "don't care" list is pretty damn short.

Yeah, tell it to the ones that are on that "damn short" list, I'm sure they will be relieved.

And just where have I come remotely close to suggesting I didn't care about peoples' well-being?

Poland has no more to fear from "Russian aggression" than does Bhutan. It may not seem like it from an emotional point of view, which I understand, but there's no point worrying about things that won't happen, and deciding foreign affairs based on emotion is a terrible idea for all concerned.

(03-04-2014 01:57 PM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  Look, I understand the way you are approaching this topic, I'm just saying it's never a good thing to have somebody like Putin consolidate his power through actions like these. We don't know what kind of shit it might set up further down the road, even if the current consequences are minimal.

... and I'm saying we do know some of what's down the road - or more precisely, some of what's very emphatically not.

And what's not down that road are any NATO or EU members. Of which there will only be more given time.

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03-04-2014, 02:55 PM
RE: Russia Could Invade Ukraine Within Hours.
(03-04-2014 02:31 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(03-04-2014 01:57 PM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  Yeah, tell it to the ones that are on that "damn short" list, I'm sure they will be relieved.

And just where have I come remotely close to suggesting I didn't care about peoples' well-being?

Poland has no more to fear from "Russian aggression" than does Bhutan. It may not seem like it from an emotional point of view, which I understand, but there's no point worrying about things that won't happen, and deciding foreign affairs based on emotion is a terrible idea for all concerned.

(03-04-2014 01:57 PM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  Look, I understand the way you are approaching this topic, I'm just saying it's never a good thing to have somebody like Putin consolidate his power through actions like these. We don't know what kind of shit it might set up further down the road, even if the current consequences are minimal.

... and I'm saying we do know some of what's down the road - or more precisely, some of what's very emphatically not.

And what's not down that road are any NATO or EU members. Of which there will only be more given time.

*Assuming that Russia acts rationally.*

If they cease to do so then all bets are off.

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03-04-2014, 02:58 PM (This post was last modified: 03-04-2014 03:04 PM by Tartarus Sauce.)
RE: Russia Could Invade Ukraine Within Hours.
(03-04-2014 02:55 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  
(03-04-2014 02:31 PM)cjlr Wrote:  And just where have I come remotely close to suggesting I didn't care about peoples' well-being?

Poland has no more to fear from "Russian aggression" than does Bhutan. It may not seem like it from an emotional point of view, which I understand, but there's no point worrying about things that won't happen, and deciding foreign affairs based on emotion is a terrible idea for all concerned.


... and I'm saying we do know some of what's down the road - or more precisely, some of what's very emphatically not.

And what's not down that road are any NATO or EU members. Of which there will only be more given time.

*Assuming that Russia acts rationally.*

If they cease to do so then all bets are off.

Exactly.

This is what I mean about "down the road."

The points you've been bringing up CJLR are all valid...except your dealing with Russia, a nation that has not exactly had a history of sane leaders.

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03-04-2014, 03:03 PM
RE: Russia Could Invade Ukraine Within Hours.
(03-04-2014 02:02 PM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  
(03-04-2014 01:59 PM)Mathilda Wrote:  Put Finland down as a 'nope' as well.

Winter war statistics. Russia's attempt to invade Finland between 30th November 1939 to 13th March 1940.

Finnish strength vs Soviet Russian strength
  • 337,000–346,500 men vs 425,640–760,578 men. 998,100 men (overall)
  • 32 tanks vs 2,514–6,541 tanks
  • 114 aircraft vs 3,880 aircraft

Finnish casualties vs Soviet casualties
  • 25,904 dead or missing vs 126,875 dead or missing
  • 43,557 wounded vs 188,671 wounded, concussed or burned
  • 1,000 captured vs 5,572 captured
  • 20–30 tanks lost vs 3,543 tanks lost
  • 62 aircraft lost vs 261–515 aircraft lost
  • 70,000 total casualties vs 323,000 total casualties

No one fucks with the Finnish.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

In all fairness, the fact that Stalin had just done a HUGE purge of the Soviet upper military command just before invading Finland was mostly responsible for that outcome.

Yeah, it's not easy to win wars when all your competent leaders are gone; just ask a historian about Nicholas II...

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