Russia Could Invade Ukraine Within Hours.

[Charis]

(03-04-2014 02:58 PM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  The points you've been bringing up CJLR are all valid...except your dealing with Russia, a nation that has not exactly had a history of sane leaders.

Lol, you beat me to saying that.

[cjlr]

(03-04-2014 02:58 PM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  

(03-04-2014 02:55 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  *Assuming that Russia acts rationally.*

If they cease to do so then all bets are off.

Exactly.

This is what I mean about "down the road."

The points you've been bringing up CJLR are all valid...except your dealing with Russia, a nation that has not exactly had a history of sane leaders.

Russia isn't North Korea. Russia won't become North Korea.

And even North Korea hasn't marched across the DMZ for shits and giggles.

The keyword's right there - "they". Large scale military actions don't happen just because "Putin is crazy". It needs way more buy-in than that.

Remember the last round of noise over the east China sea? If "they" had stopped acting rationally...
(how's China's record for sane leaders? How's Japan's?)

[Revenant77x]

(03-04-2014 03:40 PM)cjlr Wrote:  

(03-04-2014 02:58 PM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  Exactly.

This is what I mean about "down the road."

The points you've been bringing up CJLR are all valid...except your dealing with Russia, a nation that has not exactly had a history of sane leaders.

Russia isn't North Korea. Russia won't become North Korea.

And even North Korea hasn't marched across the DMZ for shits and giggles.

The keyword's right there - "they". Large scale military actions don't happen just because "Putin is crazy". It needs way more buy-in than that.

Remember the last round of noise over the east China sea? If "they" had stopped acting rationally...
(how's China's record for sane leaders? How's Japan's?)

Well there is also a culture of persecution of any dissent and a history of imprisoning political rivals. That does tend to remove anyone who would voice opposition to anything, regardless of the rationality of the plan.

[cjlr]

(03-04-2014 03:54 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  

(03-04-2014 03:40 PM)cjlr Wrote:  Russia isn't North Korea. Russia won't become North Korea.

And even North Korea hasn't marched across the DMZ for shits and giggles.

The keyword's right there - "they". Large scale military actions don't happen just because "Putin is crazy". It needs way more buy-in than that.

Remember the last round of noise over the east China sea? If "they" had stopped acting rationally...
(how's China's record for sane leaders? How's Japan's?)

Well there is also a culture of persecution of any dissent and a history of imprisoning political rivals. That does tend to remove anyone who would voice opposition to anything, regardless of the rationality of the plan.

That I certainly realize.

But those factors taken to 11 and beyond - cf North Korea! - still doesn't mean the top brass gets to go crazy bananas.

[Revenant77x]

(03-04-2014 04:07 PM)cjlr Wrote:  

(03-04-2014 03:54 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  Well there is also a culture of persecution of any dissent and a history of imprisoning political rivals. That does tend to remove anyone who would voice opposition to anything, regardless of the rationality of the plan.

That I certainly realize.

But those factors taken to 11 and beyond - cf North Korea! - still doesn't mean the top brass gets to go crazy bananas.

Oh I grant it is not inherent or even likely just something that should be planned for. I doubt Putin, even on his worst day, really wants to start WW3.

[Charis]

Putin really just wants to ride around shirtless and wrestle bears. WW3 would seriously interfere with that.

[Banjo]

I cannot speculate as to what will happen. However I think concern can be generated by news services. Take a look at the front page of the Sydney Morning Herald. WWIII does not appear high on the worry list.

http://www.smh.com.au/

[Charis]

I dunno.... in our time, any sort of military aggression is seen as pretty extreme and notable. We (that is, more civilized society) usually take care of things using rhetoric and subsequent voting. We're used to seeing military shows of force in areas like Africa and the Middle East. But in Europe? That's not the current norm.

[Sam]

I think Putin has some serious "stumpy knob" issues...

All the tough guy shit, publicity stunts etc... He's compensating for something.

[Chas]

(03-04-2014 06:55 PM)Paranoidsam Wrote:  I think Putin has some serious "stumpy knob" issues...

All the tough guy shit, publicity stunts etc... He's compensating for something.

He's compensating for loss of superpower stiffy. These acts are his Soviet Cialis.