Russian ambassador in Ankara shot
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19-12-2016, 04:15 PM (This post was last modified: 19-12-2016 04:21 PM by Gloucester.)
RE: Russian ambassador in Ankara shot
(19-12-2016 12:13 PM)BryanS Wrote:  
(19-12-2016 12:11 PM)Vosur Wrote:  Aren't ambassadors supposed to be untouchable on account of diplomatic immunity? I don't see this ending well.

ISIS isn't truly a nation state that respects international rules--if only they had the full trappings of nation states, we could war them to the point of submission. The only way to defeat ISIS is for lots and lots of them to die.
This is one of the worst aspects of the current situation - "assymetric warfare".

It used to mean armies with modern weapons and technology fighting against those with small arms or inadequate or ancient wespons. Now it means keeping to some sort of rule system whilst the other side attacks civilians outside of the battle zone and kills non-combatants for merely being different in some way.

I will admit we probably do not know exactly what happens in Syria but it appears that the regime and the Russians have not behaved much better.

Thus I am not surprised about this attack on the Russians. It seems to be part of the Muslim mindset that attacks by non-Muslims are a worse "crime" than attacks by other Muslims. To Daesh all non-Muslims are the enemy so the nonMuslim world faces a dilemma - allow refufees in abd you possibly allow terrorists in, even kids and women are active in this covert "war".

Keeping the refugees out is propaganda for those wishing "us" to be seen as Islamophobic in the Muslim world, good recruiting policy for them.

We are sort of fucked either way it seems, Daesh have the skills to use almost any action or policy to their favour. Even blowing a bunch of them to bits can be spun by them.

I don't think there is any comparison to the events in Sarajevo here, even if it was a Turkish off-duty pokiceman, as reported. Unless the Russians are actually looking for an excuse to attack Turkey, which I cannot see.

This will be viewed as an Islamist attack and both Turkey and Russia are anti Islamist. But it is not going to help solve the overall problem for sure.

There was a "future-fiction" story where WW3 was between Islam and the rest. Not sure that is not a possibility, and at least one Islamic nation has nuclear capability and anotger could probably make it in a few years at most. India and Israel, two nuclear armed nations, are almost certain to be dragged into such a conflict.

The mix of Russians, with a history that has made them paranoid as a nation, and an Islamic world where their version of "honour" means protecting their faith by any means is a bad one. I do not trust even a well developed nation like Iran to be free of religious pressure - at the moment they seem to be holding it at bay to gain international standing.

Tomorrow is precious, don't ruin it by fouling up today.
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19-12-2016, 04:20 PM
RE: Russian ambassador in Ankara shot
(19-12-2016 04:14 PM)Szuchow Wrote:  
(19-12-2016 04:11 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Ha! Ukraine is no doubt shitting itself right about now.

I know next to nothing about situation in Ukraine and neither I care much* so I can't comment on this.


*Strange, I know.

Moscow to Warsaw runs through Kiev or Minsk. Take your pick.

#sigh
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19-12-2016, 04:23 PM
RE: Russian ambassador in Ankara shot
(19-12-2016 04:00 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  
(19-12-2016 12:11 PM)Vosur Wrote:  Aren't ambassadors supposed to be untouchable on account of diplomatic immunity? I don't see this ending well.

If your opponent is a civilized nation, then yes. If you are dealing with a rogue nation, a terrorist group or a lone gunman then all bets are off and your immunity had best come in the form of a kevlar body stocking.

Yet Gavrilo Princip, a radical member of the so-called "Black Hand" group, who touched off WWI with a political assassination, died in prison of tuberculosis.

Don't undersell the ability of individuals to touch off large movements, or even world wars; it's happened before.
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19-12-2016, 04:24 PM (This post was last modified: 19-12-2016 04:32 PM by Szuchow.)
RE: Russian ambassador in Ankara shot
(19-12-2016 04:20 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(19-12-2016 04:14 PM)Szuchow Wrote:  I know next to nothing about situation in Ukraine and neither I care much* so I can't comment on this.


*Strange, I know.

Moscow to Warsaw runs through Kiev or Minsk. Take your pick.

I'm not sure I get what you mean but if Russia decide that Poland should no longer be foreign country there isn't much that could be done. So I don't worry, just like I don't worry about other things that I can do nothing about.

(19-12-2016 04:23 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  Yet Gavrilo Princip, a radical member of the so-called "Black Hand" group, who touched off WWI with a political assassination, died in prison of tuberculosis.

Don't undersell the ability of individuals to touch off large movements, or even world wars; it's happened before.

But for individual to succeed specific circumstances must be in place - in this regard Princip is no different than Hitler. Were times been different they would not fare so well*.


*Or at least Hitler wouldn't. I know too little about WWI to state such categorically.

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19-12-2016, 04:50 PM
RE: Russian ambassador in Ankara shot
(19-12-2016 04:15 PM)Gloucester Wrote:  This is one of the worst aspects of the current situation - "assymetric warfare".

It used to mean armies with modern weapons and technology fighting against those with small arms or inadequate or ancient wespons. Now it means keeping to some sort of rule system whilst the other side attacks civilians outside of the battle zone and kills non-combatants for merely being different in some way.

It's typically meant both for a very long time now.

Only a fool stands and fights against overwheling numerical and technological superiority. The fools that do die noble deaths that serve as rallying cries for the smarter, more cunning opponents. They don't make the mistake of facing their attackers head on.

And that rule system tends to get applied rather assymetrically too. Just ask the collateral casualties.

An attack against Russia was pretty predictable so you know that Putin was expecting it. He's an old hand at this.

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19-12-2016, 04:57 PM
RE: Russian ambassador in Ankara shot
(19-12-2016 04:23 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  
(19-12-2016 04:00 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  If your opponent is a civilized nation, then yes. If you are dealing with a rogue nation, a terrorist group or a lone gunman then all bets are off and your immunity had best come in the form of a kevlar body stocking.

Yet Gavrilo Princip, a radical member of the so-called "Black Hand" group, who touched off WWI with a political assassination, died in prison of tuberculosis.

Don't undersell the ability of individuals to touch off large movements, or even world wars; it's happened before.

I'm not. I know too well how one fool can spark a war in the wrong circumstances. I just don't expect those fools to observe the niceties and conventions that "civilized" countries use to govern warfare.

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19-12-2016, 05:12 PM
RE: Russian ambassador in Ankara shot
(19-12-2016 04:57 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  I'm not. I know too well how one fool can spark a war in the wrong circumstances. I just don't expect those fools to observe the niceties and conventions that "civilized" countries use to govern warfare.

Televised warfare has hurt nations such as the US. Vietnam being a good example.

Wars eventually spiral out of control and what is horrifying at the beginning is normal at the end.

The RAF was dropping leaflets long before Dresden was in flames.




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19-12-2016, 09:25 PM
RE: Russian ambassador in Ankara shot
(19-12-2016 04:24 PM)Szuchow Wrote:  But for individual to succeed specific circumstances must be in place - in this regard Princip is no different than Hitler. Were times been different they would not fare so well*.


*Or at least Hitler wouldn't. I know too little about WWI to state such categorically.

History is in my mind a matter of the right (or wrong) person being in the right (or wrong) place at the right (or wrong) time.

The ability to seize the moment, for better or worse, relies on both luck and judgement. I know ... trite.
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20-12-2016, 01:14 AM (This post was last modified: 20-12-2016 01:52 AM by Szuchow.)
RE: Russian ambassador in Ankara shot
(19-12-2016 09:25 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  
(19-12-2016 04:24 PM)Szuchow Wrote:  But for individual to succeed specific circumstances must be in place - in this regard Princip is no different than Hitler. Were times been different they would not fare so well*.


*Or at least Hitler wouldn't. I know too little about WWI to state such categorically.

History is in my mind a matter of the right (or wrong) person being in the right (or wrong) place at the right (or wrong) time.

The ability to seize the moment, for better or worse, relies on both luck and judgement. I know ... trite.

I think it is more about circumstances than a person but generally I agree.

Edit: To expand a little - in specific circumstance person can achieve what otherwise would be impossible/much harder, i.e. beaten to death example of Hitler. But in long term actions of individuals are more or less meaningless, i.e. despite Hitler failure Germany is still powerhouse, cause her economic, political and human potential didn't allow other outcome.

The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology, of the phantom of God. As long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth.

Mikhail Bakunin.
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20-12-2016, 01:45 AM
RE: Russian ambassador in Ankara shot
(19-12-2016 04:50 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  
(19-12-2016 04:15 PM)Gloucester Wrote:  This is one of the worst aspects of the current situation - "assymetric warfare".

It used to mean armies with modern weapons and technology fighting against those with small arms or inadequate or ancient wespons. Now it means keeping to some sort of rule system whilst the other side attacks civilians outside of the battle zone and kills non-combatants for merely being different in some way.

It's typically meant both for a very long time now.

Only a fool stands and fights against overwheling numerical and technological superiority. The fools that do die noble deaths that serve as rallying cries for the smarter, more cunning opponents. They don't make the mistake of facing their attackers head on.

And that rule system tends to get applied rather assymetrically too. Just ask the collateral casualties.

An attack against Russia was pretty predictable so you know that Putin was expecting it. He's an old hand at this.
I agree with much you said, Paleo, but with qualifications.

Daesh has proved that it is better at aquiring modern arms and tech than, say, Al Q. They are also better organised strategically - tactically they seem a bunch of fanatics.

Al Q went for complex "out of theatre" action like 9/11 and other grand efforts taking lots of organisation, tending to make them increasingly predictable and detectable. Daesh seem to be more inclined, at the moment, to hitting in random places using weapons it is impossible, mostly, to guard against.

If they are forced out or Syria, and the Yemen, I think we can expect many more "dispersed" attacks like this. Ties up the security forces, keeps the public concerned, increases the division between political polarities.

And their skill at using tbe Internet does not help.

Despite a fairly high Muslim population, and being the home of the "shoe bomber", Gloucester has virtually zero ethnic conflict. I wonder for how long...

Tomorrow is precious, don't ruin it by fouling up today.
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