Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
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19-09-2014, 11:47 AM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 11:41 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 11:18 AM)cjlr Wrote:  If you're still referring to Thatcher, I remind you that it was literally impossible for her to act on that commitment

Then she should not have made a commitment that was literally impossible to fulfill.

No - but that wouldn't have been in character. Thatcher ran as much of a presidential ship as a PM could get away with. When she couldn't bully her way through the entire backbench...
(that's also supposing such sentiment was even knowable beforehand, which is debatable)

My point is simply that the real narrative is more complicated than "lies because liars".

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19-09-2014, 12:11 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
I was against Scottish Independence. I just seemed like it was asking for violence.
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19-09-2014, 12:21 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 11:18 AM)cjlr Wrote:  If you're still referring to Thatcher, I remind you that it was literally impossible for her to act on that commitment, and that said commitment was much less weighty than the current one.

Literally impossible?!? How? Did it break the laws of thermodynamics or something?

Quote:Scottish votes were integral to the makeup of every post-war UK government bar three ('83, '87, and 2010).

The naked figures disagree with that assessment:

https://fullfact.org/scotland/permanent_...ence-35134

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19-09-2014, 12:36 PM (This post was last modified: 19-09-2014 12:39 PM by cjlr.)
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 12:21 PM)Elder Cunningham Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 11:18 AM)cjlr Wrote:  If you're still referring to Thatcher, I remind you that it was literally impossible for her to act on that commitment, and that said commitment was much less weighty than the current one.

Literally impossible?!? How? Did it break the laws of thermodynamics or something?

Not enough government MPs supported it. Whipping a vote on the matter would have provoked a revolt.

Perhaps I was being overly presumptive in allowing for "impossible" to be understood as "impossible with the personalities and conditions prevailing at the time".

After all, it's not impossible that the UK government unilaterally ejects Scotland tomorrow.

Is it likely?

(19-09-2014 12:21 PM)Elder Cunningham Wrote:  
Quote:Scottish votes were integral to the makeup of every post-war UK government bar three ('83, '87, and 2010).

The naked figures disagree with that assessment:

https://fullfact.org/scotland/permanent_...ence-35134

On the contrary - that is the answer to a different question. That is addressing what would have happened in a UK parliament with no Scottish seats whatsoever, which is not what I was referring to.
(and also, assuming absolutely everything else to remain the same, which is obviously fairly far removed from reality)

I was referring to the makeup of government including Scotland. That is, how would the results change given a change in voting patterns in Scotland? In most general elections that would change the overall winner; the exceptions are those I listed.

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19-09-2014, 01:20 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
So, what happened? When the "Yes" side saw itself ahead in the polls did they go out and get drunk and forget to vote?

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19-09-2014, 01:36 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 01:20 PM)Minimalist Wrote:  So, what happened? When the "Yes" side saw itself ahead in the polls did they go out and get drunk and forget to vote?

They were never really ahead. They had managed to draw within margin of error in a couple polls and that motivated all the normal stay at home voters to come out. 85% attendance is unheard of.

(31-07-2014 04:37 PM)Luminon Wrote:  America is full of guns, but they're useless, because nobody has the courage to shoot an IRS agent in self-defense
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19-09-2014, 01:39 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 01:36 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 01:20 PM)Minimalist Wrote:  So, what happened? When the "Yes" side saw itself ahead in the polls did they go out and get drunk and forget to vote?

They were never really ahead. They had managed to draw within margin of error in a couple polls and that motivated all the normal stay at home voters to come out. 85% attendance is unheard of.

As well, turnout in 'yes' areas was markedly lower than turnout in 'no' areas.
(with Glasgow and Dundee being the lowest in the country!)

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19-09-2014, 02:10 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 01:39 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 01:36 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  They were never really ahead. They had managed to draw within margin of error in a couple polls and that motivated all the normal stay at home voters to come out. 85% attendance is unheard of.

As well, turnout in 'yes' areas was markedly lower than turnout in 'no' areas.
(with Glasgow and Dundee being the lowest in the country!)

Now the actual outcome matched the earlier polling data not the more recent ones which leads me to wonder if it was due to polling error in the ones closest to the election rather than a duel seismic shift to and then away from independance.

(31-07-2014 04:37 PM)Luminon Wrote:  America is full of guns, but they're useless, because nobody has the courage to shoot an IRS agent in self-defense
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19-09-2014, 02:24 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 02:10 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 01:39 PM)cjlr Wrote:  As well, turnout in 'yes' areas was markedly lower than turnout in 'no' areas.
(with Glasgow and Dundee being the lowest in the country!)

Now the actual outcome matched the earlier polling data not the more recent ones which leads me to wonder if it was due to polling error in the ones closest to the election rather than a duel seismic shift to and then away from independance.

The highest 'yes' polling was effectively tied, and that was the outlier, true.

The difference between the consensus polling immediately beforehand (4-5 point spread) and the actual result (10 point spread) is, I think, primarily down to turnout. The 'yes' counties averaged <80%, while the 'no' counties were at >85%.

We'd need better post-polling to know how the last minute "undecided" responders voted, if indeed they voted at all. Polling from Quebec in 1995 suggested that almost all late-deciders voted 'no'. But in that case and here as well I think there is a good case to be made for a "shy Tory" effect; it would only need to be a couple percent to account for the discrepancy.

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19-09-2014, 02:39 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 02:24 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 02:10 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  Now the actual outcome matched the earlier polling data not the more recent ones which leads me to wonder if it was due to polling error in the ones closest to the election rather than a duel seismic shift to and then away from independance.

The highest 'yes' polling was effectively tied, and that was the outlier, true.

The difference between the consensus polling immediately beforehand (4-5 point spread) and the actual result (10 point spread) is, I think, primarily down to turnout. The 'yes' counties averaged <80%, while the 'no' counties were at >85%.

We'd need better post-polling to know how the last minute "undecided" responders voted, if indeed they voted at all. Polling from Quebec in 1995 suggested that almost all late-deciders voted 'no'. But in that case and here as well I think there is a good case to be made for a "shy Tory" effect; it would only need to be a couple percent to account for the discrepancy.

Will be interesting to see if they got such an effect. It is odd that the safe and boring side won out over the pure emotional side if it came down to undecided low information voters.

(31-07-2014 04:37 PM)Luminon Wrote:  America is full of guns, but they're useless, because nobody has the courage to shoot an IRS agent in self-defense
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