Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
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19-09-2014, 02:44 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 02:39 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 02:24 PM)cjlr Wrote:  The highest 'yes' polling was effectively tied, and that was the outlier, true.

The difference between the consensus polling immediately beforehand (4-5 point spread) and the actual result (10 point spread) is, I think, primarily down to turnout. The 'yes' counties averaged <80%, while the 'no' counties were at >85%.

We'd need better post-polling to know how the last minute "undecided" responders voted, if indeed they voted at all. Polling from Quebec in 1995 suggested that almost all late-deciders voted 'no'. But in that case and here as well I think there is a good case to be made for a "shy Tory" effect; it would only need to be a couple percent to account for the discrepancy.

Will be interesting to see if they got such an effect. It is odd that the safe and boring side won out over the pure emotional side if it came down to undecided low information voters.

I think it's easy to underestimate what is tediously called here (and, I would presume, in the UK) the small-c conservative vote. Between an acceptable if flawed status quo, and a giant unstable unknown...

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19-09-2014, 02:57 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 02:44 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 02:39 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  Will be interesting to see if they got such an effect. It is odd that the safe and boring side won out over the pure emotional side if it came down to undecided low information voters.

I think it's easy to underestimate what is tediously called here (and, I would presume, in the UK) the small-c conservative vote. Between an acceptable if flawed status quo, and a giant unstable unknown...

The Yes side did have a much better hook. Play "Flower of Scotland", show Braveheart, play up Scottish Nationalism. I'll be honest I sided with the Yes side before this thread just on sentiment.

(31-07-2014 04:37 PM)Luminon Wrote:  America is full of guns, but they're useless, because nobody has the courage to shoot an IRS agent in self-defense
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19-09-2014, 03:18 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
The first pledge has been broken already:

[Image: 207qf4w.jpg]

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19-09-2014, 03:42 PM (This post was last modified: 19-09-2014 04:01 PM by cjlr.)
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 03:18 PM)Elder Cunningham Wrote:  The first pledge has been broken already:

I can find no mention anywhere else of any promise regarding any action on the 19th specifically.

Literally nowhere besides that image, which is from Better Together and not any of the parties in Westminster or Holyrood. Do you have a source on that?

EDIT: as best I can tell that's overreach by whoever threw the poster together. The mention of the 19th comes from Brown's speech a couple weeks ago, as that's where the rest of the dates arise (which were subsequently affirmed by the government). Nowhere did anyone say anything would be put forward today; it would seem to make more sense to me to wait until something was actually supposed to have happened before going full bore "ALL A SCAM WAKE UP SHEEPLE" on every public statement ever uttered.

Incidentally, the 'no' victory already means greater powers for the Scottish parliament, in accordance with legislation already on the books. Commitments from all the major parties for renegotiation and further devolution were made months ago.

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19-09-2014, 06:54 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
The internet is awash with vote rigging conspiracy theories now...

The evidence... A bloke writing something at a desk during a count, and a woman picking up a pile of paper and sorting it into two piles.

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20-09-2014, 08:18 AM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
ALL A SCAM WAKE UP SHEEPLE

Or, you know. At least wait and see. Like reasonable people.

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20-09-2014, 08:38 AM (This post was last modified: 20-09-2014 09:17 AM by Mathilda.)
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(20-09-2014 08:18 AM)cjlr Wrote:  ALL A SCAM WAKE UP SHEEPLE

Or, you know. At least wait and see. Like reasonable people.

Quote:Gordon Brown vows 'powers will be delivered'

He's a single backbencher. The fact that he used to be PM is irrelevant. There's more reason to believe a Better Together campaign leaflet which is at least the official campaign of the Westminster parties and represents their offers and pledges (the first of which has subsequently been broken).
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20-09-2014, 09:16 AM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
[Image: 10688294_713899392021404_2858275594763533613_o.jpg]
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20-09-2014, 12:13 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(20-09-2014 08:38 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  
(20-09-2014 08:18 AM)cjlr Wrote:  ALL A SCAM WAKE UP SHEEPLE

Or, you know. At least wait and see. Like reasonable people.

Quote:Gordon Brown vows 'powers will be delivered'

He's a single backbencher. The fact that he used to be PM is irrelevant. There's more reason to believe a Better Together campaign leaflet which is at least the official campaign of the Westminster parties and represents their offers and pledges (the first of which has subsequently been broken).

Better Together is not officially aligned with any of the Westminster parties. That was the whole point of it.

But, let's see what other people have to say:
Quote:Prime Minister David Cameron has vowed to deliver on the pre-referendum promises made by the three main Westminster parties to boost the powers of Scotland's devolved parliament.

I'm still curious about this "broken promise", by the way. Parliament didn't convene on the 19th; I'm not sure how they can pass a motion under those circumstances. It's the kind of try-hard pseudo-grievance the entire yes campaign was based on.

You might as well go full conspiracy and say the entire vote was rigged from the get-go.

"IT IS ALL LIES BECAUSE MY FEELS" is not a particularly considered or reasonable stance to take. But it's certainly your prerogative.

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20-09-2014, 04:50 PM (This post was last modified: 20-09-2014 04:57 PM by Mathilda.)
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(20-09-2014 12:13 PM)cjlr Wrote:  Better Together is not officially aligned with any one of the Westminster parties. That was the whole point of it.

Fixed for you.

What would be the point of Better Together if it did not officially represent the unified voice of the parties at Westminster that have power?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Toge...ampaign%29

Quote:Better Together was the principal organization that represented parties, organisations, and individuals campaigning for a No vote in the Scottish independence referendum, 2014. It was established in 2012 with support of the three main pro-union political parties in Scotland: Scottish Labour, the Scottish Conservative Party, and the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

And before you argue that it only represented devolved parties of the Scottish parliament, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Conservative Party, and the Scottish Liberal Democrats are the Scottish presence of those parties that are based in Westminster.

The campaign included MPs at Westminster (e.g. Alistair Darling) and if Better Together did not speak for Westminster then why did those MPs not correct what the Better Together promised? If that was the case then they would be lying by omission.
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