Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
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09-09-2014, 05:41 AM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
Nobody knows. I read a prediction online about how Holyrood elections might go in the future, one being that the Scots get pissed with the SNP following indepdence because of failed promises and a poorly performing economy and decide to vote in Scottish Labour who are anti-indpendence.

Then it's a mystery. None of the other main parties in Scotland want indepdence so would they try and get another referedum to reject it? Not a clue.

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09-09-2014, 06:12 AM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
I think the economic argument is weak. There are heaps of countries with smaller economies then Scotland that have independence.
NZ for example, we have 4.5-5million people and have a GDP of $140bil (US dollars). Scotland has a population just over 5million and a GDP of just over $200bill. Plus, they are in close proximity to Europe and specifically, England, which is a huge world market. They will be able to very easily form trade agreement type things and prosper.

The Scottish economy is also very diverse, not relying on only one or two sectors to prop it's economy. It also has all that tasty oil and gas.
Compare this with NZ where out economy relies extremely heavily on dairy and a bit of tourism on the side. We do have plenty of natural resources but they are not being mined in favor of saving the environment.

I think independence would actually improve the Scottish economy. It would boost tourism (people seeing it as a separate country rather then "the UK"), give Scotland a more Scotland focused and driven government and could open opportunities for Scotland to increase relations and trade with countries that purhaps are less inclined to deal with the English, though I understand that this point might be a bit of a stretch.


They should get independence. Scotland has had a rough time of it, historically speaking, and they are culturally different to the English. The UK is just "Greater England" anyway and so it would be a nice final chapter in the last several hundred years of the rise and "fall" of the British empire.

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09-09-2014, 12:03 PM (This post was last modified: 09-09-2014 12:07 PM by Fidel_Castronaut.)
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
Scotland also has a lot of liabilities as part of their integrated economy, not to mentioned a welfare bill that eclipses that of even England in (for example) £x spent per person for the NHS (>£2000 compared to <£2000 average in England and Wales).

Their education sector is entirely subsidised (free HE for students studying at Scottish universities) and they also get free prescriptions, something which would ultimately be put under threat if there were to leave the union.

It seems almost certain they won't have monetary union with the rUK either as all Westminster parties have ruled that out. So they'll have to invent a new currency in which to begin trading internationally with.

And finally, as has already been proven with market instability over the past few days (sterling has seen a 1% drop) markets (and hence investors) hate uncertainty. Several large companies have already said they would pull out of Scotland should it gain independence, not to mention the fact that there is no guarantee they will even get EU membership this decade (no say on whether their membership would be automatic - i doubt it).

The economic argument is actually the biggest argument as to why an independent Scotland could bring ruin to both theirs and the rUK economies. GDP only gives you a very small insight as to the workings of an economy and doesn't take Into account anything about the future uncertainties that will undoubtedly dominate the debate for years to come. Also, a big chunk of the Scottish economy comes from Aberdeen, and there's no telling how long that will last (some say a few years, others a few decades). Oil and gas reserves in the North Sea could run out any year, and that's what investors will be playing with until proven without a doubt otherwise.

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09-09-2014, 12:40 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(09-09-2014 06:12 AM)earmuffs Wrote:  The UK is just "Greater England" anyway and so it would be a nice final chapter in the last several hundred years of the rise and "fall" of the British empire.

I don't like it when people say this.. because I think that the "UK" is basically Central London. Most of us up North feel isolated from the politics and metropolis of London. There are a ton of Cornish that wish for Cornwall to be it's separate state, followed by a small insurgency in Yorkshire. I'm all for Yorkshire having independence! Too long have we allowed the London-centric politicians extort this country.

Good for Scotland if they get independence. I hope they do, and I'm English. If only they could take the rest of us with them.

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09-09-2014, 12:57 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(09-09-2014 06:12 AM)earmuffs Wrote:  They should get independence. Scotland has had a rough time of it, historically speaking, and they are culturally different to the English. The UK is just "Greater England" anyway and so it would be a nice final chapter in the last several hundred years of the rise and "fall" of the British empire.

More Scots than English wanted the Union in the first place.

The Scottish people were a wholesale and enthusiastic (and overrepresented) part of the establishment throughout the entire British empire.

Where did you learn your history?

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09-09-2014, 01:01 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(09-09-2014 12:40 PM)SunnyD1 Wrote:  
(09-09-2014 06:12 AM)earmuffs Wrote:  The UK is just "Greater England" anyway and so it would be a nice final chapter in the last several hundred years of the rise and "fall" of the British empire.

I don't like it when people say this.. because I think that the "UK" is basically Central London. Most of us up North feel isolated from the politics and metropolis of London. There are a ton of Cornish that wish for Cornwall to be it's separate state, followed by a small insurgency in Yorkshire. I'm all for Yorkshire having independence! Too long have we allowed the London-centric politicians extort this country.

Good for Scotland if they get independence. I hope they do, and I'm English. If only they could take the rest of us with them.

Great idea. Then instead of being overridden by a more populous part of your own country (which happens - inevitably - in literally every democratic apparatus, because that's what democracy is), you'd be economically dominated by a foreign country which wouldn't even have to pretend to care about you.
(London and it's global economic reach aren't just going to up and vanish just 'cause you swap out some flags on a government building)

I see no way in which that could work out poorly...

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09-09-2014, 01:08 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(09-09-2014 01:01 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(09-09-2014 12:40 PM)SunnyD1 Wrote:  I don't like it when people say this.. because I think that the "UK" is basically Central London. Most of us up North feel isolated from the politics and metropolis of London. There are a ton of Cornish that wish for Cornwall to be it's separate state, followed by a small insurgency in Yorkshire. I'm all for Yorkshire having independence! Too long have we allowed the London-centric politicians extort this country.

Good for Scotland if they get independence. I hope they do, and I'm English. If only they could take the rest of us with them.

Great idea. Then instead of being overridden by a more populous part of your own country (which happens - inevitably - in literally every democratic apparatus, because that's what democracy is), you'd be economically dominated by a foreign country which wouldn't even have to pretend to care about you.
(London and it's global economic reach aren't just going to up and vanish just 'cause you swap out some flags on a government building)

I see no way in which that could work out poorly...

I never said it was practical though I like the IDEA of Yorkshire having independence.. it isn't realistic so I think it's safe for wishful thinking.

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09-09-2014, 01:17 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(09-09-2014 01:08 PM)SunnyD1 Wrote:  
(09-09-2014 01:01 PM)cjlr Wrote:  Great idea. Then instead of being overridden by a more populous part of your own country (which happens - inevitably - in literally every democratic apparatus, because that's what democracy is), you'd be economically dominated by a foreign country which wouldn't even have to pretend to care about you.
(London and it's global economic reach aren't just going to up and vanish just 'cause you swap out some flags on a government building)

I see no way in which that could work out poorly...

I never said it was practical though I like the IDEA of Yorkshire having independence.. it isn't realistic so I think it's safe for wishful thinking.

I can understand some of that. There's emotional appeal to the concept of independence - rooted in tribalistic nationalism though it may be...

But you just have to look at the farce of the SNP (or the PQ here!) to see that for what it is.

"We'd be independent! Hurrah!"
"But what about the currency?"
"We'd, er, try to keep using it..."
"And defense?"
"Well, uh, we'd join the same nuclear shield..."
"And the media? [CBC/BBC]?"
"Of course we'd keep it..."
"Foreign affairs?"
"Don't worry, we'll keep working out of the same embassies."
"Trade? Movement of people?"
"Naturally we'd keep open borders and free trade and movement with our former countrymen."
"Riiight. Is there anything that would change?"
"Sure! We'd always get the government we vote for!"
"But we'd keep an electoral system that gives majority control to minorities. You [the SNP/PQ] only won 45% of the vote, so a majority of [Scotland/Quebec] didn't vote for you - and they're stuck with you anyway."
"NEVER YOU MIND."
"Okay. Fine. So we'd effectively have the same economic policy, the same immigration policy, the same currency, the same military umbrella, the same international representation and partnerships... What's the point, again?"
"INDEPENDENCE! STOP TALKING US DOWN!"

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09-09-2014, 01:22 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(09-09-2014 01:17 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(09-09-2014 01:08 PM)SunnyD1 Wrote:  I never said it was practical though I like the IDEA of Yorkshire having independence.. it isn't realistic so I think it's safe for wishful thinking.

I can understand some of that. There's emotional appeal to the concept of independence - rooted in tribalistic nationalism though it may be...

But you just have to look at the farce of the SNP (or the PQ here!) to see that for what it is.

"We'd be independent! Hurrah!"
"But what about the currency?"
"We'd, er, try to keep using it..."
"And defense?"
"Well, uh, we'd join the same nuclear shield..."
"And the media? [CBC/BBC]?"
"Of course we'd keep it..."
"Foreign affairs?"
"Don't worry, we'll keep working out of the same embassies."
"Trade? Movement of people?"
"Naturally we'd keep open borders and free trade and movement with our former countrymen."
"Riiight. Is there anything that would change?"
"Sure! We'd always get the government we vote for!"
"But we'd keep an electoral system that gives majority control to minorities. You [the SNP/PQ] only won 45% of the vote, so a majority of [Scotland/Quebec] didn't vote for you - and they're stuck with you anyway."
"NEVER YOU MIND."
"Okay. Fine. So we'd effectively have the same economic policy, the same immigration policy, the same currency, the same military umbrella, the same international representation and partnerships... What's the point, again?"
"INDEPENDENCE! STOP TALKING US DOWN!"

You've put it sublimely.

Also, there's something suspicious about Alex Salmond..

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09-09-2014, 01:27 PM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(09-09-2014 01:22 PM)SunnyD1 Wrote:  You've put it sublimely.

I am perennially stunned by how much the rhetoric - in Scotland and in places like Catalonia - has not changed or matured one bit from the nonsense in Quebec back in the day.

For a brief history lesson - there were two "independence" referenda in Quebec. 1980 was about 60/40 against "independence". The 1995 results were 50.5/49.5 against "independence. I say "independence" because the whole thing, even down to the question on the ballot, was as vague and transparently political as anything. The number of people who didn't understand the question on the 1995 referendum was larger than the margin of the results.

(09-09-2014 01:22 PM)SunnyD1 Wrote:  Also, there's something suspicious about Alex Salmond..

Yes. He's a disingenuous dirtback politician who wants to be the biggest fish in the pond, and if he has to build his own little pond to do it - with blackjack! and hookers! - then by God and Tartan, that's what he'll do.

The entire Yes campaign seems to be run on a policy of "promise literally everything to literally everyone, and skip out when the payment comes due!"

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