Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
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19-09-2014, 09:22 AM (This post was last modified: 19-09-2014 09:25 AM by Mathilda.)
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 08:02 AM)Revenant77x Wrote:  Umm actually Westminster has just ceeded more power to the Scottish parliament.


No it hasn't. The prime minister has just talked the talk. That's a long way from having the power to implement it.

The next general election is 2015 and these things take time to sort out. Then there will be another government coming in (or less likely the same one but with a majority this time). Motivation for it will recede quickly with time. There has even been an outcry about the prospect from the back-benchers before the referendum. e.g.

http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/ref...ns-tory-mp

Quote:Christopher Chope has told the BBC that there are enough back bench Conservative MPs in Parliament who are against more powers going to Scotland in the event of a No vote and who would vote against such a move.

Obviously if they renege on the promise immediately after the referendum then people will get angry, but people also have short memories. You can already see the back peddling happen. Now the talk is about English votes on English issues. This is fair enough because the current system was poorly implemented, but now the talk is about England rather than Scotland. We can expect a complete reform of the system to be engineered to remove more money and power from Scotland. Especially with a general election coming up where the Tories don't have any seats in Scotland to worry about losing.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014...tland-vote

Quote:PM says voices of England must now be heard, and challenges Labour to say whether it will back English votes for English MPs

Quote:But the prime minister made clear that the constitutional reforms, including in Scotland, would not be delivered until after the general election, and that Scottish measures would proceed in tandem with changes in England.
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19-09-2014, 09:23 AM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 09:13 AM)cjlr Wrote:  You'll have to pardon me for being skeptical that all three national parties would completely back down from a serious pledge to re-examine the constitutional status of the UK.

You mean like in 1979?
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19-09-2014, 09:29 AM (This post was last modified: 19-09-2014 09:34 AM by cjlr.)
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 09:22 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  I don't buy it for a second. The next general election is 2015 and these things take time to sort out. Then there will be another government coming in (or less likely the same one but with a majority this time).

All three parties agreed - so that's irrelevant. Unless UKIP wins a majority...
Gasp

(19-09-2014 09:22 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  Motivation for it will recede quickly with time. There has even been an outcry about the prospect from the back-benchers before the referendum. e.g.

Also irrelevant. Labour and Liberal votes "for" would outweigh those Tory backbenchers voting "against", if it were a free vote.

(19-09-2014 09:22 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  Obviously if they renege on the promise immediately after the referendum then people will get angry, but people also have short memories. You can already see the back peddling happen. Now the talk is about English votes on English issues. This is fair enough because the current system was poorly implemented, but now the talk is about England rather than Scotland. We can expect a complete reform of the system to be engineered to remove more money and power from Scotland.

I don't know that your asserted feels are necessarily accurate.

(19-09-2014 09:22 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  Especially with a general election coming up where the Tories don't have any seats in Scotland to worry about losing.

The do have one. Another 11 are Liberal seats also in government.

(19-09-2014 09:22 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  
Quote:But the prime minister made clear that the constitutional reforms, including in Scotland, would not be delivered until after the general election, and that Scottish measures would proceed in tandem with changes in England.

The West Lothian question only becomes more important with the advent of more devolved powers to the Scottish (and hypothetically Welsh and Northern Irish) assemblies.

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19-09-2014, 09:32 AM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 09:23 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 09:13 AM)cjlr Wrote:  You'll have to pardon me for being skeptical that all three national parties would completely back down from a serious pledge to re-examine the constitutional status of the UK.

You mean like in 1979?

Where the referendum - to be binding if supported by 40% of the electorate - was not supported by 40% of the electorate? The government would have been breaking their own agreement if they implemented the '78 act under those conditions.

Fun fact: the SNP triggering a general election afterwards is what got them Thatcher.

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19-09-2014, 09:38 AM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 09:32 AM)cjlr Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 09:23 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  You mean like in 1979?

Where the referendum - to be binding if supported by 40% of the electorate - was not supported by 40% of the electorate? The government would have been breaking their own agreement if they implemented the '78 act under those conditions.

Fun fact: the SNP triggering a general election afterwards is what got them Thatcher.

Fun Fact: Margaret Thatcher promised the Scots a better deal if they voted no. She even said in her acceptance speech when she won the leadership that the Tories were committed to a Scottish parliament. Fuck all happened.

So as Mathilda points out, broken promises after a no vote have precedent.

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19-09-2014, 09:47 AM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 09:29 AM)cjlr Wrote:  All three parties agreed - so that's irrelevant. Unless UKIP wins a majority...
Gasp

And part of the Edinburgh agreement was that no new offers would be put on the table 28 days before the final referendum. Cameron broke that by offering new powers to Scotland even as postal votes were being sent in. If he can go back on explicit promises he signed up to, why should anyone believe ambiguous promises for powers that rely on him winning the next election?


(19-09-2014 09:29 AM)cjlr Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 09:22 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  Motivation for it will recede quickly with time. There has even been an outcry about the prospect from the back-benchers before the referendum. e.g.

Also irrelevant. Labour and Liberal votes "for" would outweigh those Tory backbenchers voting "against", if it were a free vote.


And why should Labour and Liberal Democrats not also renege on their promises like they do with many other pre-election pledges?

Politicians renege on their promises. It's a fact of life. Like Nick Clegg saying that they would scrap tuition fees if they were elected for example. Or ...

http://metro.co.uk/2008/06/02/labour-ren...um-163345/
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010...wn-protest
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19-09-2014, 09:48 AM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 09:38 AM)Elder Cunningham Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 09:32 AM)cjlr Wrote:  Where the referendum - to be binding if supported by 40% of the electorate - was not supported by 40% of the electorate? The government would have been breaking their own agreement if they implemented the '78 act under those conditions.

Fun fact: the SNP triggering a general election afterwards is what got them Thatcher.

Fun Fact: Margaret Thatcher promised the Scots a better deal if they voted no. She even said in her acceptance speech when she won the leadership that the Tories were committed to a Scottish parliament. Fuck all happened.

So as Mathilda points out, broken promises after a no vote have precedent.

Yes. But Thatcher never had a great relationship with either her cabinet or her general caucus. And since the Tories held a majority, that was all that mattered. Thatcher's promises were not part of the official platform for the election.

Beyond the superficial "politicians saying things" there's no analogy. All three national parties have made a real commitment.

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19-09-2014, 09:51 AM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 09:48 AM)cjlr Wrote:  Beyond the superficial "politicians saying things" there's no analogy. All three national parties have made a real commitment.

What, like Nick Clegg's signed pledge on tuition fees? I hate to break this to you, but politicians sometimes lie.

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19-09-2014, 09:53 AM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 09:47 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 09:29 AM)cjlr Wrote:  All three parties agreed - so that's irrelevant. Unless UKIP wins a majority...
Gasp

And part of the Edinburgh agreement was that no new offers would be put on the table 28 days before the final referendum. Cameron broke that by offering new powers to Scotland even as postal votes were being sent in. If he can go back on explicit promises he signed up to, why should anyone believe ambiguous promises for powers that rely on him winning the next election?

Because his winning is irrelevant?

It's all well and good to be smugly cynical about literally every politician ever - but I do note that if so, there is absolutely nothing that would be changed by independence or greater devolution anyway. So why bother even caring?

(19-09-2014 09:47 AM)Mathilda Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 09:29 AM)cjlr Wrote:  Also irrelevant. Labour and Liberal votes "for" would outweigh those Tory backbenchers voting "against", if it were a free vote.

And why should Labour and Liberal Democrats not also renege on their promises like they do with many other pre-election pledges?

Politicians renege on their promises. It's a fact of life. Like Nick Clegg saying that they would scrap tuition fees if they were elected for example. Or ...

http://metro.co.uk/2008/06/02/labour-ren...um-163345/
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010...wn-protest

Because people say and do things for reasons, and not just shits and giggles? Reasons to both keep and break promises?
(though I'm not sure how Clegg, as leader of a minority in a coalition government, can be expected to unilaterally get anything done in parliament...)

And there exist good reasons for this particular promise to be kept?

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19-09-2014, 09:57 AM
RE: Scottish Independance ahead in Poll
(19-09-2014 09:51 AM)Elder Cunningham Wrote:  
(19-09-2014 09:48 AM)cjlr Wrote:  Beyond the superficial "politicians saying things" there's no analogy. All three national parties have made a real commitment.

What, like Nick Clegg's signed pledge on tuition fees? I hate to break this to you, but politicians sometimes lie.

Gee, I had never noticed. Thank you good sir, for enlightening me.

Note that it does not follow that all politicians always lie. So there's that.

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