Shortcomings of the "probability of life" argument
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29-03-2016, 08:22 PM
RE: Shortcomings of the "probability of life" argument
(29-03-2016 06:53 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  Odds and probabilities can only calculated when all possible outcomes are known.

And more imporantly, when the probability space is fully understood. It is common for the probability of events to change by very large amounts based on some quite common and simple changes to the conditions.

Without that knowledge it's just a bunch of meaningless hand waving.

It's an interesting example of dishonesty that the exact same people who will say that evolution can't possibly be true because we have no idea how life began will confidently state that they know what the odds of life beginning are.

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Flesh and blood of a dead star, slain in the apocalypse of supernova, resurrected by four billion years of continuous autocatalytic reaction and crowned with the emergent property of sentience in the dream that the universe might one day understand itself.
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29-03-2016, 09:00 PM
RE: Shortcomings of the "probability of life" argument
(29-03-2016 08:22 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  And more imporantly, when the probability space is fully understood. It is common for the probability of events to change by very large amounts based on some quite common and simple changes to the conditions.

Without that knowledge it's just a bunch of meaningless hand waving.

And even assuming that the probability space is fully understood and the odds are staggeringly against the possibility of life forming, all that means is that a long shot came up.

No matter how long the shot, it's not evidence of a creator.

"Owl," said Rabbit shortly, "you and I have brains. The others have fluff. If there is any thinking to be done in this Forest - and when I say thinking I mean thinking - you and I must do it."
- A. A. Milne, The House at Pooh Corner
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29-03-2016, 09:13 PM
RE: Shortcomings of the "probability of life" argument
Let's take a billion coins and flip them all in the air and let them all land as either heads or tails.

Each coin represents some fundamental aspect of the universe that we live in.

If the 65,389,431 coin would have landed heads instead of tails, life as we know it may not have formed.

Saying that a huge number of things have to all happen at the same time before there can be life, is just stupid.

We developed inside this universe.
We are a part of this universe.

Imagine someone saying "How did this Lego structure appear in this universe made only of Lego's ?"

What are the odds of Legos being present in a Lego universe ?

One last thing on a coin toss probability.
We assign probabilities because we don't know what will happen. Physics predetermines all actions.
If you toss a coin at midnight tonight, it will land on a predetermined side due to physics.

We don't know the outcome, so we create probabilities.

Insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results
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29-03-2016, 09:13 PM
RE: Shortcomings of the "probability of life" argument
(29-03-2016 05:15 PM)BlackEyedGhost Wrote:  
(29-03-2016 05:08 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  I never called you an idiot.
Quote: Ignorant you are.
Quote:You do not understand QM. At All.
Quote:Then you'll never understand the point, or the probabilities.
Close enough.
Uh...no. I'm ignorant of the traffic laws in Belgium. I don't understand the traffic laws in Belgium. At all. I'll likely never understand the traffic laws in Belgium as I'll likely never have use of them.

This does not make me an idiot in any way shape or form. The fact you are ignorant of a topic doesn't make you an idiot, it just means you got some learning to do.

When valour preys on reason, it eats the sword it fights with.
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30-03-2016, 01:31 AM
RE: Shortcomings of the "probability of life" argument
(29-03-2016 03:50 PM)BlackEyedGhost Wrote:  I'm not going to watch an hour long video for the sake of addressing this point.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v657Ylwh-_k
This video explains other ideas in quantum mechanics very well (in fact I recommend the videos on this Youtube channel in general):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVpXrbZ4bnU

You are saying the above while posting two videos with a total running time of ca. 1hr? Facepalm
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30-03-2016, 02:31 AM
RE: Shortcomings of the "probability of life" argument
(30-03-2016 01:31 AM)Deesse23 Wrote:  You are saying the above while posting two videos with a total running time of ca. 1hr? Facepalm
I only did so once sources were requested.
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30-03-2016, 02:34 AM
RE: Shortcomings of the "probability of life" argument
(29-03-2016 06:39 PM)Chas Wrote:  "God of the gaps" is an argument from ignorance.

It is a sign of a lazy mind.
Sorry, I should have been more clear. I meant to say that the "God of the gaps" fallacy seems to be present in most arguments of this sort, not that "God of the gaps" is a valid argument.
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30-03-2016, 02:38 AM
RE: Shortcomings of the "probability of life" argument
(29-03-2016 09:13 PM)WhiskeyDebates Wrote:  Uh...no. I'm ignorant of the traffic laws in Belgium. I don't understand the traffic laws in Belgium. At all. I'll likely never understand the traffic laws in Belgium as I'll likely never have use of them.

This does not make me an idiot in any way shape or form. The fact you are ignorant of a topic doesn't make you an idiot, it just means you got some learning to do.
The reason I took those things as calling me an idiot is because he never took the time to examine whether or not I do in fact understand the things he claimed I was ignorant of; he just jumped to the conclusion, making it seem more of an insult than a valid point.
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30-03-2016, 02:44 AM
RE: Shortcomings of the "probability of life" argument
(29-03-2016 08:11 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  
(29-03-2016 06:32 PM)Chas Wrote:  If life is a one in 100 billion chance of arising on any particular planet and there are 100 billion planets, what is the probability of it occurring somewhere?

0.36788 0.63212 My bad

Statistics are weird.
Confirmed, good math.
1-(99999999999/100000000000)^100000000000 = 0.63212467627
approx. 63.2% chance
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30-03-2016, 03:56 AM
RE: Shortcomings of the "probability of life" argument
(29-03-2016 03:20 PM)BlackEyedGhost Wrote:  I understand what you're getting at, but this is a question of how the odds were beaten. Was it luck or was it design?

Neither.

I have a couple of USB sticks in my handbag. I don't bother putting the cap on the end of them because they are a little too loose but I do store the cap in the handbag along with the sticks.

Every once in a while I find that when I take the USB stick out that it has the cap on the end. Sometimes I pull out both USB sticks to find that they both have caps on the end. It's neither design nor luck. As I walk about the contents of my bag slowly move about. After a while the cap will meet up with the USB stick. There's just enough movement of the contents of my bag to put the cap on the stick, but if there was any more then the cap would be knocked off it again. Any less and the two would never meet up.

The principle is the same for life. It's called the edge of chaos. Where there is enough energy to cause activity, but not too much to create chaos. This allows stable patterns to emerge.

Another example:

http://thecreatorsproject.vice.com/en_uk...lds-itself
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