Standards of Coincidence
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15-02-2015, 04:09 AM (This post was last modified: 15-02-2015 04:13 AM by TruthFire.)
Standards of Coincidence
In our lives, there are events that we can attribute to chance, and those that we cannot. My question is where science draws the line.

Assume that you were to draw one card at a time from a deck, and someone sitting across from you were correctly guessing whether you were drawing a red or black card. Surely 1-10 correct guesses in a row might still be attributed to luck or coincidence. What about 100, 500, 99,999,999 correct guesses in a row?

I feel that I might be complicating my question, so here's the condensed simplified version: Are there specific odds beyond which scientists universally agree are definitely NOT coincidence or 'luck of the draw'?
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15-02-2015, 04:22 AM
RE: Standards of Coincidence
I guess the closest real life situation I can think of that involves this question is the ongoing struggle between online poker rooms and the US government.

Poker players claim that poker is not a game of chance. They claim that it is a game of skill - the skill of making the best of whatever hand you are dealt. Proof for it being skill and not random is that some people consistently win the big poker tournaments.

The government holds that it is a game of chance, nobody knows what cards they will be dealt.

If it is a game of chance, it is illegal online.

If it is a game of skill, it is perfectly legal.

They have been arguing for a decade...

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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15-02-2015, 04:46 AM (This post was last modified: 15-02-2015 08:28 AM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: Standards of Coincidence
(15-02-2015 04:09 AM)TruthFire Wrote:  In our lives, there are events that we can attribute to chance, and those that we cannot. My question is where science draws the line.

Assume that you were to draw one card at a time from a deck, and someone sitting across from you were correctly guessing whether you were drawing a red or black card. Surely 1-10 correct guesses in a row might still be attributed to luck or coincidence. What about 100, 500, 99,999,999 correct guesses in a row?

I feel that I might be complicating my question, so here's the condensed simplified version: Are there specific odds beyond which scientists universally agree are definitely NOT coincidence or 'luck of the draw'?

No. Ya mean at which point "Jebus done it ?" The answer is "no".
Highly unusual events happen all the time.

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15-02-2015, 05:42 AM
RE: Standards of Coincidence
Science "draws the line" at probability.
Something either has a high probability of happening or low probability.
At no point does science conclude it was magic.
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15-02-2015, 05:56 AM
RE: Standards of Coincidence
(15-02-2015 04:09 AM)TruthFire Wrote:  In our lives, there are events that we can attribute to chance, and those that we cannot. My question is where science draws the line.

Assume that you were to draw one card at a time from a deck, and someone sitting across from you were correctly guessing whether you were drawing a red or black card. Surely 1-10 correct guesses in a row might still be attributed to luck or coincidence. What about 100, 500, 99,999,999 correct guesses in a row?

I feel that I might be complicating my question, so here's the condensed simplified version: Are there specific odds beyond which scientists universally agree are definitely NOT coincidence or 'luck of the draw'?

Statistical significance is what you are looking for.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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15-02-2015, 06:11 AM
RE: Standards of Coincidence
(15-02-2015 05:56 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(15-02-2015 04:09 AM)TruthFire Wrote:  In our lives, there are events that we can attribute to chance, and those that we cannot. My question is where science draws the line.

Assume that you were to draw one card at a time from a deck, and someone sitting across from you were correctly guessing whether you were drawing a red or black card. Surely 1-10 correct guesses in a row might still be attributed to luck or coincidence. What about 100, 500, 99,999,999 correct guesses in a row?

I feel that I might be complicating my question, so here's the condensed simplified version: Are there specific odds beyond which scientists universally agree are definitely NOT coincidence or 'luck of the draw'?

Statistical significance is what you are looking for.

But that just begs the question "Is there a significance level which scientists universally agree ..." I think the answer to the question is no.

There is only one really serious philosophical question, and that is suicide. -Camus
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15-02-2015, 07:32 AM
RE: Standards of Coincidence
(15-02-2015 05:56 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(15-02-2015 04:09 AM)TruthFire Wrote:  In our lives, there are events that we can attribute to chance, and those that we cannot. My question is where science draws the line.

Assume that you were to draw one card at a time from a deck, and someone sitting across from you were correctly guessing whether you were drawing a red or black card. Surely 1-10 correct guesses in a row might still be attributed to luck or coincidence. What about 100, 500, 99,999,999 correct guesses in a row?

I feel that I might be complicating my question, so here's the condensed simplified version: Are there specific odds beyond which scientists universally agree are definitely NOT coincidence or 'luck of the draw'?

Statistical significance is what you are looking for.

Good work! Statistical Significance was exactly what I was looking for!
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15-02-2015, 07:42 AM
RE: Standards of Coincidence
Chance is an umbrella term used to describe situations where we do not have enough information to determine an outcome.
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15-02-2015, 07:55 AM
RE: Standards of Coincidence
"Ford! There's an infinite number of monkeys outside who want to talk to us about this script for Hamlet they've worked out." - Arthur Dent



Or something like that.

.......................................

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