Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
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25-07-2013, 02:47 PM
RE: Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
(25-07-2013 02:41 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(25-07-2013 02:16 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Yes the DNA would be different, but a lot of the same forms would arise again.

It's called convergent evolution.

Similar, not the same.
We already have examples of this.

The claim is "essentially the same species" would arise again. I think "essentially the same species" implies very-very similar but not exactly the same species.

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25-07-2013, 02:47 PM
RE: Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
(25-07-2013 02:39 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  But you are assuming that the same niches would become available. In the case of bison, triceratops, or the horse, they are herbivorous grazers. But what if plant evolution went in a different direction? Depending on when you restart the "tape of life" (as Gould called it), plants may take a different trajectory. Animals would then have to.

And there are other factors too. Like, climate and continental configuration and solar activity and etc, etc. If we try to rewind time and let it play forwards, is it somehow connected to the future? If so, it should play out exactly the same. But there are random and chaotic processes that influence it too that may cause a change.

Convergent evolution suggests that in similar environments, life will adapt in similar ways. But I'm not so sure that if you completely rewind that tape, you'll get the same environments.

This is true as well. So many trillions of individual things had to happen to get us here (and that is such a low ball number as to be absurd) that a small change back at the beginning would be amplified exponentially the further along you went. Even assuming that environmental factors were the same in the beginning what if some of the meteor strikes didn't happen? What if even one of the major extinction events either didn't happen or happened differently enough that the surviving species had a completely different set of genes and alleles. To assume everything would play out exactly the same is not really likely.

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25-07-2013, 02:54 PM
RE: Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
(25-07-2013 02:39 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  But you are assuming that the same niches would become available. In the case of bison, triceratops, or the horse, they are herbivorous grazers. But what if plant evolution went in a different direction? Depending on when you restart the "tape of life" (as Gould called it), plants may take a different trajectory. Animals would then have to.

And there are other factors too. Like, climate and continental configuration and solar activity and etc, etc. If we try to rewind time and let it play forwards, is it somehow connected to the future? If so, it should play out exactly the same. But there are random and chaotic processes that influence it too that may cause a change.

Convergent evolution suggests that in similar environments, life will adapt in similar ways. But I'm not so sure that if you completely rewind that tape, you'll get the same environments.

Oh, certainly. But I don't think there's too much variation possible in the environment. Yeah, we might see a runaway greenhouse or snowball, leaving a few disparate (and desparate!) colonies of extremophiles as the last holdouts, but I'd give that a lower probability (very low confidence, mind, but still a much lower probability!).

It's plenty easy to get trapped in local maxima in the fitness curve; re-running things would almost certainly find different maxima.

Certain adaptations are extremely fundamental, though. It's advantageous for plants to grow upwards. Lateral symmetry is more efficient sustained linear movement than radial symmetry.

It's definitely a fascinating question.

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25-07-2013, 05:56 PM
RE: Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
(25-07-2013 02:47 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  This is true as well. So many trillions of individual things had to happen to get us here (and that is such a low ball number as to be absurd) that a small change back at the beginning would be amplified exponentially the further along you went.

I don't believe there is any evidence to suggest that natural evolution is a chaotic system subject to the "butterfly effect". Can you substantiate your assertion?

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25-07-2013, 06:05 PM
RE: Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
(25-07-2013 05:56 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(25-07-2013 02:47 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  This is true as well. So many trillions of individual things had to happen to get us here (and that is such a low ball number as to be absurd) that a small change back at the beginning would be amplified exponentially the further along you went.

I don't believe there is any evidence to suggest that natural evolution is a chaotic system subject to the "butterfly effect". Can you substantiate your assertion?

Evolution is massively contingent on the environment and on mutations.

Whether or not it is technically chaotic or not, it is a mechanistic algorithm with feedback.

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25-07-2013, 06:16 PM
RE: Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
(25-07-2013 06:05 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(25-07-2013 05:56 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  I don't believe there is any evidence to suggest that natural evolution is a chaotic system subject to the "butterfly effect". Can you substantiate your assertion?

Evolution is massively contingent on the environment and on mutations.

Whether or not it is technically chaotic or not, it is a mechanistic algorithm with feedback.

If you could alter the timeline by magically inducing a monotreme to fart 100 million years ago when it otherwise wouldn't, it would not likely have any effect on the eventual evolution of human beings. Maybe our DNA would be a little different but we would be substantially the same.

Selection dictates which forms will last...not mutation.

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25-07-2013, 06:21 PM
RE: Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
(25-07-2013 06:16 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(25-07-2013 06:05 PM)Chas Wrote:  Evolution is massively contingent on the environment and on mutations.

Whether or not it is technically chaotic or not, it is a mechanistic algorithm with feedback.

If you could alter the timeline by magically inducing a monotreme to fart 100 million years ago when it otherwise wouldn't, it would not likely have any effect on the eventual evolution of human beings. Maybe our DNA would be a little different but we would be substantially the same.

Selection dictates which forms will last...not mutation.

Mutation determines what forms are available to selection. Without both, there is no evolution.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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25-07-2013, 06:27 PM
RE: Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
Maybe not the most perfect example but lizards develop feathers for coloration and warmth, if the earth was warmer they would not need feathers, without feathers they have no means by which to evolve flight. One adaptation opens pathways to new adaptations I would call that the butterfly effect.

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25-07-2013, 06:37 PM
RE: Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
(25-07-2013 06:16 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Maybe our DNA would be a little different but we would be substantially the same.

How different?

1% different? Because then we're Homo Erectus.

2% different? Because then we're chimpanzees.

(25-07-2013 06:16 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Selection dictates which forms will last...not mutation.

Right. Mutation dictates which forms exist to be selected from.

It's a pretty key part of the process...

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25-07-2013, 06:47 PM
RE: Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
(25-07-2013 06:21 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(25-07-2013 06:16 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  If you could alter the timeline by magically inducing a monotreme to fart 100 million years ago when it otherwise wouldn't, it would not likely have any effect on the eventual evolution of human beings. Maybe our DNA would be a little different but we would be substantially the same.

Selection dictates which forms will last...not mutation.

Mutation determines what forms are available to selection.

Mutation determine what forms are available in the same way pixels determine what pictures are available.

Several forms...such as an eye...independently evolved several times on this planet. If your claim was true, in each instance the exact same mutations and sequence would have had to follow in each case. As I have pointed out to you in the past, the Thylacine and the Wolf shared essentially the same form but a very different history of mutations.

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