Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
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25-07-2013, 09:24 PM
RE: Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
(25-07-2013 08:55 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(25-07-2013 08:46 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  For a poker player, random hands do not determine win rate, except over short intervals. Over the long run selection determines who the winners and loser are. Over the long run any random hand is insignificant. Poker illustrates my position quite nicely.

There is only selection when there are things to select from among.

That variety is due to mutations.

Mutations are random.

I'm pretty sure you're just trolling at this point...

You don't have to take my word for it. Go download an evolution simulator and run your own simulations.

Identical simulations will often yield essentially the same forms even though mutations are randomly generated.

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25-07-2013, 09:46 PM
RE: Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
(25-07-2013 09:24 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  You don't have to take my word for it. Go download an evolution simulator and run your own simulations.

Identical simulations will often yield essentially the same forms even though mutations are randomly generated.

No, you're essentially correct, but you're taking much too narrow a view.

Given the same starting conditions and a very limited scope for variation - those are the conditions you're imposing when you specify identical simulations - one will indeed see convergent evolution.

The starting conditions on Earth are determined by chaotic processes (weather patterns and solar activity, to name just two). If they were 're-run' they would not be the same.

I'd advise you to look into the concept of a fitness landscape. Biological form tends towards efficiency, that is true. But it tends towards local efficiency only. There are almost always multiple developmental pathways along which there will be improvement. But having reached a stable point, it may be that any variation decreases fitness, even though there may be other forms which are more efficient in absolute terms.

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25-07-2013, 10:14 PM
RE: Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
(25-07-2013 09:46 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(25-07-2013 09:24 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  You don't have to take my word for it. Go download an evolution simulator and run your own simulations.

Identical simulations will often yield essentially the same forms even though mutations are randomly generated.

No, you're essentially correct, but you're taking much too narrow a view.

Given the same starting conditions and a very limited scope for variation - those are the conditions you're imposing when you specify identical simulations - one will indeed see convergent evolution.

The starting conditions on Earth are determined by chaotic processes (weather patterns and solar activity, to name just two). If they were 're-run' they would not be the same.

I'd advise you to look into the concept of a fitness landscape. Biological form tends towards efficiency, that is true. But it tends towards local efficiency only. There are almost always multiple developmental pathways along which there will be improvement. But having reached a stable point, it may be that any variation decreases fitness, even though there may be other forms which are more efficient in absolute terms.

Also computer generated random numbers tend to be a little clumpy because they are usually based on clock cycles so this is one of the areas of evolution simulation that one might expect to need to calibration.

Quote:Several computational methods for random number generation exist, but often fall short of the goal of true randomness — though they may meet, with varying success, some of the statistical tests for randomness intended to measure how unpredictable their results are (that is, to what degree their patterns are discernible).

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25-07-2013, 11:12 PM
RE: Start evolution over. Would the same species appear? Yes!
(25-07-2013 09:46 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(25-07-2013 09:24 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  You don't have to take my word for it. Go download an evolution simulator and run your own simulations.

Identical simulations will often yield essentially the same forms even though mutations are randomly generated.

No, you're essentially correct, but you're taking much too narrow a view.

Given the same starting conditions and a very limited scope for variation - those are the conditions you're imposing when you specify identical simulations - one will indeed see convergent evolution.

The starting conditions on Earth are determined by chaotic processes (weather patterns and solar activity, to name just two). If they were 're-run' they would not be the same.

I'd advise you to look into the concept of a fitness landscape. Biological form tends towards efficiency, that is true. But it tends towards local efficiency only. There are almost always multiple developmental pathways along which there will be improvement. But having reached a stable point, it may be that any variation decreases fitness, even though there may be other forms which are more efficient in absolute terms.

If the chaos intrinsic to solar activity or weather altered the selection mechanisms significantly then yes you would see different forms appear. But suppose you re-ran earth and in the second go around everything was exactly the same except for random mutations. Then you would see numerous examples of convergent evolution between the two worlds.

Natural evolution has random elements in its mechanisms, but it isn't all that random.

Vosur, Anjele, Hanoff.....have you learned nothing in my absence?
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