State by State Comparison
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25-11-2015, 09:35 AM
RE: State by State Comparison
(25-11-2015 09:22 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  But hell, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and add in percent of population in rural vs urban for each state too. Working on that now.

I'm really curious to see how that moves the plot points.

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25-11-2015, 09:36 AM (This post was last modified: 25-11-2015 09:41 AM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: State by State Comparison
(25-11-2015 09:22 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  But hell, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and add in percent of population in rural vs urban for each state too. Working on that now.

Not sure what that matters. The only thing that matters is looking at each city individually and seeing how they vote. The top 25 most violent cities (as of 2012) are

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-25-mo...rouge-la-1

Baton Rouge
Orlando
Springfield
Indianapolis
Washington, D.C.
Newark
Nashville
Philadelphia
Miami
Kansas City
Buffalo
Hartford
New Haven
Cleveland
Rockford
Stockton
Baltimore
Atlanta
Birmingham
Little Rock, Ark
Memphis
Oakland
St. Louis
Detroit
Flint

All of these cities, as of 2012, (except Springfield, IL) have a Democrat for a mayor, or majority Democrat city council, or both. They also have mostly elected Democrats to these positions over the last 25 years. The urban and rural cities outside of the major cities tend to have less crime and vote republican. These are just facts. High crime big cities are democrat controlled.

When I was looking to move to a new area, I didn't look at the stats for a state, I looked at the city I was planning to move. A big city 500 miles away with bad crime could make the entire state look dangerous when in fact the rural city I was looking at was very low crime.

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25-11-2015, 09:43 AM (This post was last modified: 25-11-2015 09:47 AM by TheBeardedDude.)
RE: State by State Comparison
An updated version with Urban vs Rural thrown in (data from: https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/ua/...2010.html)

I used the percent of the state population that lives in Rural, Urban, Urban Centers, and Urban Areas.

[attachment=3102]

Now, what do we see here? Do high urban areas really skew those numbers? Doesn't appear so (at least not in the way LDH proposed).

For instance, notice that Maryland and New York are heavily affected by Urban and Urban Area numbers, but the they plot away from the states with high murder rates, gun murder rates, violent crime rates, poverty level, and religiousness. While states like Louisiana and Texas and Georgia and Tennessee, all have much lower urban populations, but elevated levels of murder rates, gun murder rates, violent crime rates, poverty level, and religiousness.

One SHOULD expect that more urban areas are more prone to crime and violence and murder, but when everything is taken into account, it is the more rural (less urban) areas that seem to have abnormally elevated issues with crime and murder...and religiousness (and lower graduation rates too).


So, despite the fact that conservatives like to harp on Baltimore or Chicago (Illinois also plots further away from the direction of elevated crime rates than the southern states too) for being centers of massive amounts of death and crime in liberal controlled areas, the reality is that they don't compare with places like Louisiana or Georgia or Tennessee or Mississippi or Texas or Florida or Missouri or North Carolina or Arizona. Hmmm Consider I am noticing a trend....

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25-11-2015, 09:46 AM
RE: State by State Comparison
(25-11-2015 09:36 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(25-11-2015 09:22 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  But hell, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and add in percent of population in rural vs urban for each state too. Working on that now.

Not sure what that matters. The only thing that matters is looking at each city individually and seeing how they vote. The top 25 most violent cities (as of 2012) are

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-25-mo...rouge-la-1

Baton Rouge
Orlando
Springfield
Indianapolis
Washington, D.C.
Newark
Nashville
Philadelphia
Miami
Kansas City
Buffalo
Hartford
New Haven
Cleveland
Rockford
Stockton
Baltimore
Atlanta
Birmingham
Little Rock, Ark
Memphis
Oakland
St. Louis
Detroit
Flint

All of these cities, as of 2012, (except Springfield, IL) have a Democrat for a mayor, or majority Democrat city council, or both. They also have mostly elected Democrats to these positions over the last 25 years. The urban and rural cities outside of the major cities tend to have less crime and vote republican. These are just facts. High crime big cities are democrat controlled.

When I was looking to move to a new area, I didn't look at the stats for a state, I looked at the city I was planning to move. A big city 500 miles away with bad crime could make the entire state look dangerous when in fact the rural city I was looking at was very low crime.

And yet, the stats don't support your assertions that liberal control exerts any negative control or that urban areas skew the statistics in a way that distorts the real picture.

One SHOULD expect cities to have higher incidences of crime and murder than rural areas (opportunity for it as well as the observation that it is a common global phenomenon). But, it appears that the liberal-controlled states, plot orthogonally to the conservative states in most cases. And the conservative states don't cluster with the positive stats. Drinking Beverage

Facts will really fuck up faith.

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25-11-2015, 09:50 AM
RE: State by State Comparison
(25-11-2015 09:46 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  
(25-11-2015 09:36 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Not sure what that matters. The only thing that matters is looking at each city individually and seeing how they vote. The top 25 most violent cities (as of 2012) are

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-25-mo...rouge-la-1

Baton Rouge
Orlando
Springfield
Indianapolis
Washington, D.C.
Newark
Nashville
Philadelphia
Miami
Kansas City
Buffalo
Hartford
New Haven
Cleveland
Rockford
Stockton
Baltimore
Atlanta
Birmingham
Little Rock, Ark
Memphis
Oakland
St. Louis
Detroit
Flint

All of these cities, as of 2012, (except Springfield, IL) have a Democrat for a mayor, or majority Democrat city council, or both. They also have mostly elected Democrats to these positions over the last 25 years. The urban and rural cities outside of the major cities tend to have less crime and vote republican. These are just facts. High crime big cities are democrat controlled.

When I was looking to move to a new area, I didn't look at the stats for a state, I looked at the city I was planning to move. A big city 500 miles away with bad crime could make the entire state look dangerous when in fact the rural city I was looking at was very low crime.

And yet, the stats don't support your assertions that liberal control exerts any negative control or that urban areas skew the statistics in a way that distorts the real picture.

One SHOULD expect cities to have higher incidences of crime and murder than rural areas (opportunity for it as well as the observation that it is a common global phenomenon). But, it appears that the liberal-controlled states, plot orthogonally to the conservative states in most cases. And the conservative states don't cluster with the positive stats. Drinking Beverage

Facts will really fuck up faith.

Don't worry he will find a way to ignore all of this.

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25-11-2015, 09:51 AM
RE: State by State Comparison
(25-11-2015 09:50 AM)Revenant77x Wrote:  
(25-11-2015 09:46 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  And yet, the stats don't support your assertions that liberal control exerts any negative control or that urban areas skew the statistics in a way that distorts the real picture.

One SHOULD expect cities to have higher incidences of crime and murder than rural areas (opportunity for it as well as the observation that it is a common global phenomenon). But, it appears that the liberal-controlled states, plot orthogonally to the conservative states in most cases. And the conservative states don't cluster with the positive stats. Drinking Beverage

Facts will really fuck up faith.

Don't worry he will find a way to ignore all of this.

I'll reduce the data down a bit and remove some of the economic factors and the education factors and see what shakes loose too

Being nice is something stupid people do to hedge their bets
-Rick
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25-11-2015, 09:59 AM
RE: State by State Comparison
(25-11-2015 09:51 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  
(25-11-2015 09:50 AM)Revenant77x Wrote:  Don't worry he will find a way to ignore all of this.

I'll reduce the data down a bit and remove some of the economic factors and the education factors and see what shakes loose too

How about a pure cities plot - leave states' stats out of it? Consider

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25-11-2015, 10:01 AM
RE: State by State Comparison
I can agree that religious people can have lower levels of education. Maybe even higher suicide rates. But if you want me to believe that red states are more violent because they are red, I can't even grasp it. If you go over to neighborhoodscout.com and put in a city to get crime rates, you'll see that democrat controlled cities have a higher rate of crime than the rest of the state as a whole. That's all I'm saying. I've been all over America, lived in a ton of states. The high violence, high crime cities are mostly democrat controlled. Take New York City for example. 6.53 violent crimes per 1,000 people. The state as a whole has 3.94 violent crimes per 1,000 people. Or Miami, 11.9 violent crimes per 1,000 people, but the rest of the state averages 4.7 violent crimes per 1,000 people. Keep in mind the state stat includes those cities. If they were removed, the states crime rate would plummet.

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25-11-2015, 10:02 AM
RE: State by State Comparison
I reduced the data down by removing education and all wealth indicators except percent below poverty line. The goal being to see if the trends changed with a reduction in the number of variables. Did it?

[attachment=3103]

Nope. The southern and more conservative states still cluster together with elevated V.C.R, M.R., PV.L., G.M.R., and religiousness.

The urban-dominated states, still don't plot with the elevated crime statistics either.

And the non-religious states plot in the opposite direction of the elevated crime rates.

And rural areas have abnormally high suicide rates. Gets lonely in Montana and West Virginia (although maybe the latter is because of an inability to marry one's sister Consider )

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25-11-2015, 10:07 AM
RE: State by State Comparison
(25-11-2015 10:01 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I can agree that religious people can have lower levels of education. Maybe even higher suicide rates. But if you want me to believe that red states are more violent because they are red, I can't even grasp it. If you go over to neighborhoodscout.com and put in a city to get crime rates, you'll see that democrat controlled cities have a higher rate of crime than the rest of the state as a whole. That's all I'm saying. I've been all over America, lived in a ton of states. The high violence, high crime cities are mostly democrat controlled. Take New York City for example. 6.53 violent crimes per 1,000 people. The state as a whole has 3.94 violent crimes per 1,000 people. Or Miami, 11.9 violent crimes per 1,000 people, but the rest of the state averages 4.7 violent crimes per 1,000 people.

If you want anyone to believe that democrat-controlled cities are more violent because they are controlled by democrats, you'll need a better argument because facts don't support your assertions

All cities and highly urbanized areas around the world have elevated crime rates compared to rural areas, but the US actually has abnormally elevated crime rates in rural areas. And as it turns out, urban areas tend to lean to the left and rural areas to the right. So trying to distill this down into some sort of argument over "cities skew the statistics" is complete bullshit. Especially when that trend isn't supported by the stats and instead, the opposite trend as one would expect appears true.

Red states tend to be more rural and SHOULD have lower crime rates because they are more rural. But they DON'T. The blue states with large urban populations SHOULD have elevated crime rates compared to rural states, but (compared to the red southern states) they DON'T.

Facts will really fuck up faith


^assuming someone doesn't have their head shoved so far up their ass they can see their own tonsils. Drinking Beverage

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