State by State Comparison
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25-11-2015, 02:23 PM
RE: State by State Comparison
(25-11-2015 02:19 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  
(25-11-2015 02:11 PM)TurkeyBurner Wrote:  What everyone here seems to be overlooking is the whole correlation =/= causation. Correlations are great for the starting point of a hypothesis, but terrible at providing any meaningful evidence. I don't think the point of the OP was to imply causation, but rather to propose a hypothesis regarding an obvious correlation. LDH is providing meaningful input by proposing counter-hypothesis that has required the OP to strengthen his original hypothesis and tease out non-correlating factors from his data. You guys should be thanking LDH, not hating on him.

I have seen no conclusive evidence that proves religion, political affiliation, or demographics to be the cause of criminal activity, stupidity, poverty, etc. What I do see is that these things are intertwined and demonstrate strong correlations. The interconnectedness of local, regional, national, and world-wide historical event combined with cultural conventions dating back centuries and human psychology create societal systems that are np-hard and are unlikely to be explained by gross generalizations.

Except LDH has actually postulated that race is a cause of crime

Race is not the cause. Gangster mentality is.

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25-11-2015, 02:27 PM
RE: State by State Comparison
So, let's see how this goes by doing the biggest cities in the US and their corresponding crime rates (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U....opulation) as well as poverty level (as percent population below poverty level: http://www.city-data.com).

[attachment=3105]

Let's look at them color coded by region. What do you see? Poverty level exerts the same direction of control as the varying crimes do. What influence (if any) does region play? None. The southeast has the widest distribution, and the pacific northwest the narrowest.

[attachment=3104]

Break it down by state each city is in, and it is the same story.



The racial background of any city is irrelevant with respect to crime rates. The poverty level is highly correlated.

And (and this is really important here), the fact that there is no trend by region or by state, indicates that the big cities and their crime rates, are NOT exerting a control on the state by state PCA's I have done. For instance, if ol' Texas were getting a bad rap because of its big cities, they should cluster together and indicate that they act as a single cohesive unit controlling the position of Texas on the previous PCA's. But they don't. And the whole of the SE isn't clustered together in the other PCA's because of elevated crime rates from their major cities either, because the SE has some of the highest crime rate cities and some of the lowest and the widest distribution.


I'm sure you'll ignore this too and substitute anecdotes. Drinking Beverage

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25-11-2015, 02:28 PM
RE: State by State Comparison
(25-11-2015 02:11 PM)TurkeyBurner Wrote:  I have seen no conclusive evidence that proves religion, political affiliation, or demographics to be the cause of criminal activity, stupidity, poverty, etc. What I do see is that these things are intertwined and demonstrate strong correlations. The interconnectedness of local, regional, national, and world-wide historical event combined with cultural conventions dating back centuries and human psychology create societal systems that are np-hard and are unlikely to be explained by gross generalizations.

No, but the existence of correlations is illustrative of potential or initial causal connections. Two factors may correlate because of their independent causal link to a third underlying factor.

There are plenty of generalisations that are true. Longstanding systemic prejudice against native peoples has led to their being among the poorest groups in Canada, and the most involved with crime - both as perpetrators and as victims. That is certainly a generalisation, and as such it's trivial to find anecdotal counterexamples, but there is a factual statistical basis for the statements.

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25-11-2015, 02:30 PM
RE: State by State Comparison
(25-11-2015 02:23 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(25-11-2015 02:19 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  Except LDH has actually postulated that race is a cause of crime

Race is not the cause. Gangster mentality is.

Do you believe that the "gangster mentality" is equally distributed across all races?

Also, if the "gangster mentality" is the reason for elevated crime rates, why do you think the conservative, SE states, cluster together in those PCA's?

Why (in some rural areas) is crime rate still high if they don't have any "gangster mentality" but do have elevated poverty levels?

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25-11-2015, 02:32 PM
RE: State by State Comparison
And if you think it is the "gangster mentality" that exerts a control on crime, why did you post statistics trying to link the percentage of white people by cities with elevated and depressed crime rates?

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25-11-2015, 02:34 PM
RE: State by State Comparison
And if it is the "gangster mentality" then why did you assert that the cities with the worst crime are run by democrats as if that has a causal connection?

You are so goddamned all over the place with your baseless assertions that it is impossible to figure out what you believe beyond: "I think democrats and 'gangsters' *wink wink* are the cause of elevated crime rates."

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25-11-2015, 02:38 PM
RE: State by State Comparison
(25-11-2015 02:32 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  And if you think it is the "gangster mentality" that exerts a control on crime, why did you post statistics trying to link the percentage of white people by cities with elevated and depressed crime rates?

Because more minorities choose this lifestyle and most white people do not? They are fed the idea that they have to act a certain way by various forms of media (music especially). They could just stop. At any time they could give it up.

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25-11-2015, 02:41 PM
RE: State by State Comparison
(25-11-2015 02:38 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(25-11-2015 02:32 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  And if you think it is the "gangster mentality" that exerts a control on crime, why did you post statistics trying to link the percentage of white people by cities with elevated and depressed crime rates?

Because more minorities choose this lifestyle? They are fed the idea that they have to act a certain way by various forms of media (music especially).

If by "choose" you mean that they are "born into a lower socioeconomic class at a rate that greatly exceeds that of non-minorities as a result of the systemic and systematic racism and prejudice in our country that has exerted a generational bias based on race such that race now correlates strongly with being poorer and more uneducated because people continue to ignore the implicit racism under the guise that only explicit racism is actually racism while simultaneously assuming that because the Jim Crow laws were repealed and that we are no longer officially segregated that race shouldn't be an issue." Then sure. Drinking Beverage

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25-11-2015, 02:42 PM
RE: State by State Comparison
(25-11-2015 02:12 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I think it's a culture thing. Not necessarily a race thing. That's what people don't get. It's "cool" to be a criminal amongst certain groups. It's a culture that they CHOOSE to live by. Blacks that choose to adopt this culture are more likely to be in trouble with the law. White people can adopt this culture and they will also be criminals. Same with any ethnic group. It's gang culture. It's a choice.

Do you have a single fact to back that up?
(What the hell is "this culture" supposed to mean, anyway? Who adopts it? Who advocates it? Where does it come from? How prevalent is it? What does it entail? On what are you basing any of those opinions? Besides anecdata...)

(25-11-2015 02:12 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I grew up in southern California. Most of us were poor or at least lower income. Hell, we had rich kids that adopted this culture, became criminals, and joined gangs. The minorities that chose to avoid the gang culture graduated school, got jobs, joined the military etc. They were also looked down upon by the others that chose to be criminals. It's a choice.

Let's assume everything is purely "cultural" (which, in any case, you haven't defined). It still doesn't speak to the why of it. Let us assume - you may not even make this step, I don't know - that all people are, essentially, the same; they're about as smart as each other, about as hard working as each other, about as compassionate as each other. If, then, different groups make different "choices" (although I don't see how we could even begin to pretend everyone had the same choices available to them) there are still underlying reasons for any significant observable differences. So once again: what causal factors do you propose? "They're different because they're different" is not an answer, it's a circular assertion.

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25-11-2015, 02:43 PM
RE: State by State Comparison
(25-11-2015 02:38 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(25-11-2015 02:32 PM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  And if you think it is the "gangster mentality" that exerts a control on crime, why did you post statistics trying to link the percentage of white people by cities with elevated and depressed crime rates?

Because more minorities choose this lifestyle and most white people do not? They are fed the idea that they have to act a certain way by various forms of media (music especially). They could just stop. At any time they could give it up.

Also, this assertion STILL does not explain away any of the trends I have shown you in the state by state comparison. Drinking Beverage Nor is it corroborated by the city data.

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