State wide elections in Germany
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14-05-2017, 12:15 PM
State wide elections in Germany
...and their significance for the upcoming nation wide elections in September.

Today we had the third of three state wide elections this year. They are going to be significant for two reasons.

1) The result is the same in general for all three
2) Today, North Rhine Westphalia voted. I is the most populous state in Germany. With 18mio people it has >20% of Germanys total population and is traditionally favouring the Social democratic party.

The results are (in accordance with elections in Schleswig Holstein, coastal state, and Saarland, aka "the mini frencies" Tongue ) all pointing into the same direction:

Land slide victory of Merkels conservative party
Large losses of the social democrats
The liberals (FDP) are becoming significant again, since they faded into oblivion a decade ago
Greens and socialists will remain in the parliament(s), being smaller lolitical forces (depending on state, either one achieves up to >10%)
The right wing populists, AfD, will be a force, but *only* a minor force like Green or Socialists. They are far from their goal to "shake the system" or to even "take over". They are basically stopped in their tracks.

In general, and this is my personal (!) impression, Merkels policy is, by and large, rewarded big time. Her position is strenghened and as strong as never before, giving her confidence to continue he current policy (whatevery that is and if you like it or not). I wouldt be surprised if she will be proclaimed "queen" or "empress" very soon. Laugh out load

Stay tuned...

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14-05-2017, 12:19 PM
RE: State wide elections in Germany
(14-05-2017 12:15 PM)Deesse23 Wrote:  ...and their significance for the upcoming nation wide elections in September.

Today we had the third of three state wide elections this year. They are going to be significant for two reasons.

1) The result is the same in general for all three
2) Today, North Rhine Westphalia voted. I is the most populous state in Germany. With 18mio people it has >20% of Germanys total population and is traditionally favouring the Social democratic party.

The results are (in accordance with elections in Schleswig Holstein, coastal state, and Saarland, aka "the mini frencies" Tongue ) all pointing into the same direction:

Land slide victory of Merkels conservative party
Large losses of the social democrats
The liberals (FDP) are becoming significant again, since they faded into oblivion a decade ago
Greens and socialists will remain in the parliament(s), being smaller lolitical forces (depending on state, either one achieves up to >10%)
The right wing populists, AfD, will be a force, but *only* a minor force like Green or Socialists. They are far from their goal to "shake the system" or to even "take over". They are basically stopped in their tracks.

In general, and this is my personal (!) impression, Merkels policy is, by and large, rewarded big time. Her position is strenghened and as strong as never before, giving her confidence to continue he current policy (whatevery that is and if you like it or not). I wouldt be surprised if she will be proclaimed "queen" or "empress" very soon. Laugh out load

Stay tuned...

That's better than was fearing. But - things can and do turn around in the last minute - as the US has just seen. So we wait......

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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14-05-2017, 12:35 PM
RE: State wide elections in Germany
(14-05-2017 12:15 PM)Deesse23 Wrote:  The liberals (FDP) are becoming significant again, since they faded into oblivion a decade ago

Liberal in the sense of neocons, combined with social liberalism rather than liberal in the American sense, I would say. I would call them Libertarians. And it's not that long they've been kicked out of parliament. That happened just four years ago, when people noticed it was all smoke and mirrors they were representing.

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14-05-2017, 01:05 PM
RE: State wide elections in Germany
(14-05-2017 12:35 PM)abaris Wrote:  
(14-05-2017 12:15 PM)Deesse23 Wrote:  The liberals (FDP) are becoming significant again, since they faded into oblivion a decade ago

Liberal in the sense of neocons, combined with social liberalism rather than liberal in the American sense, I would say. I would call them Libertarians. And it's not that long they've been kicked out of parliament. That happened just four years ago, when people noticed it was all smoke and mirrors they were representing.

Yes, talking in an predominantly american forum about "liberal" can cause confusion.
4 years? Feels much longer, but they once were much stronger, back in the 80s when they assasinated Schmidt. Angry

They are economically for less regulations, thus "pro big business". Socially, kind of "in the middle" somehow. They consider themsleves representatives of the "middle class" whatever that may be.

I think labeling them "ibertarians" is a good move. Thumbsup

To be honest, i dont like them very much. But Genscher was one of the best politicians (foreign ministry) we ever had (although he was the one who planned to assasinate Schmidt Angry ). Their latest generation was all "smoke and mirrors" as you said and got a well deserved result. However there is one guy i took notice of, who is not like the rest, at least in public and in his behaviour. He is less tedious and seems to be quite frank in his statements, which i like, not the usually bullshitting when a plitician is in front of a mic. Yet, being a lawyer, he was and is invlved in quite some shady stuff. I am not yet decided about him. His name is Wolfgang Kubicki.
I am not saying i like him or his ideas, but i am interested in him.

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14-05-2017, 01:21 PM
RE: State wide elections in Germany
(14-05-2017 01:05 PM)Deesse23 Wrote:  Yes, talking in an predominantly american forum about "liberal" can cause confusion.
4 years? Feels much longer, but they once were much stronger, back in the 80s when they assasinated Schmidt. Angry

They were strongest under Westerwelle, just 8 years ago when they got his dream of 14 percent. The magic obviously didn't last once they were part of the government.

Back in '82 they were just strong enough that switching coalitions was possible. 10,6 percent in the general elections of 1980.

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14-05-2017, 01:49 PM
RE: State wide elections in Germany
They probably had the highest percentage under Westerwelle (who has passed away in the meantime, time flies) but in the 80s there were only 3 parties in the parliament and the FDP was the one tipping the balance in favour for the CDU or SPD, as they did after the grand coalition of the mid-60s when they went with the SPD, then in the 80s with the CDU.

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14-05-2017, 02:03 PM
RE: State wide elections in Germany
(14-05-2017 01:49 PM)Deesse23 Wrote:  They probably had the highest percentage under Westerwelle (who has passed away in the meantime, time flies) but in the 80s there were only 3 parties in the parliament and the FDP was the one tipping the balance in favour for the CDU or SPD, as they did after the grand coalition of the mid-60s when they went with the SPD, then in the 80s with the CDU.

Brandt was in a coalition with Kiesinger between '66 and '69. '69 was when the FDP entered a coalition with the SPD, making it possible for Brandt to become chancellor. Before that, and after '82, they always went for the CDU.

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14-05-2017, 06:07 PM
RE: State wide elections in Germany
This, combined with Le Pen's drubbing in France earlier this month, looks to be a hopeful sign.

Seems that our European friends are seeing the havoc wreaked by Trump and his gang of reprobates and are coming to realize that perhaps populism isn't the way to solve problems.

Now, two results does not a trend make, but I think it's a good sign that sanity might, at last, prevail.
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