That Damn UFO Thing
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27-11-2014, 08:21 PM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 06:50 PM)Free Wrote:  
(27-11-2014 02:46 PM)unfogged Wrote:  Let me try asking this a different way... out of all the reported UFO sightings what percentage would you estimate to fall into each of the following categories:
a) natural phenomena (swamp gas, venus, mirage, etc)
b) common man-made object (airplane, weather balloon, toy, etc)
c) secret or experimental aircraft (military or private sector)
d) insufficient/conflicting information
e) hoaxes
f) alien spacecraft
g) time travelers
h) supernatural (ghosts, gods, parallel dimension leakage, etc)

a) 20%
b) 30%
c) 10%
d) 14.99 %
e) 25%
f) 0.01%
g) 0%
h) 0%

Thank you, those numbers seem pretty reasonable to me overall. The odds of alien spacecraft being the answer in 1 out of 10000 cases is higher than I would put it but much better than I expected. I've said before that I think terminology is a big stumbling block for me understanding your position and getting some numbers helps quite a bit. Terms like possible, probable, likely, compelling, and such imply different levels of certainty to different people.

In this particular instance, I'm walking into the question with the prior assumption that those probabilities describe the options and then I'd have to apply the specific evidence to adjust accordingly. The evidence I'm given is:
1. It had a metallic disc shaped appearance.
2. It had flashing lights.
3. It was hovering approximately 1600 feet above the ground.
4. It quickly moved straight up, pushing the clouds aside into a perfect circle, and then disappeared in the upper atmosphere.

#1 and #3 could be true for any of the identified categories so they don't really affect my conclusion in any way. #2 probably makes (a) less likely although natural phenomena can produce flashing lights. #4 I could argue also could be true for any of them but I'll grant that it may also make (a) less likely. Putting it all together though I'm still going to be much more than 90% sure that the answer is one of the other options and not aliens. Even if I completely rule out hoaxes and natural phenomena it is still more likely than not to be one of the other options and I don't think it'd be valid to do that with the available evidence.

Quote:you have no problems accepting as plausible the extraordinary claim of a singularity and space expansion, but when someone else makes what you deem to be an extraordinary claim ... well wow ... the empirical card must be played.

That wasn't in a reply to me but if I may... the situations are not at all identical. Scientists are able to examine the physical evidence of the universe. They can measure the speed of light, the expansion rate and size of the universe, and do so repeatedly with ever better instruments. They can apply the laws they've discovered and work backwards to the beginning. They can make predictions about what else they should find if the model is correct and use that to refine the model. In other words, scientists have tons of empirical evidence to work with to support what may intuitively seem like an extraordinary claim. I accept that as the best available answer because when I ask "how do you know" I get a reply based on evidence and logic with the appropriate caveats and not "what else could it be". UFO sightings are one-offs with no unambiguous evidence and simply aren't a better answer than "I don't know" at this time.

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27-11-2014, 08:29 PM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 05:57 PM)Free Wrote:  According to all 12 witnesses:

1. It had a metallic disc shaped appearance.
2. It had flashing lights.
3. It was hovering approximately 1600 feet above the ground.
4. It quickly moved straight up, pushing the clouds aside into a perfect circle, and then disappeared in the upper atmosphere.

I take your point that 12 people saying they saw the same thing should lead credence to the sighting and yet it pales in comparison to the 30,000-100,000 who saw the sun “dance” in the sky during the Fatima apparitions. Does anyone really think the sun “danced in the sky” or move erratically? 30,000-100,000 people back then say it did. Mass hallucinations can and do occur.


Bolding mine

Miracle of the Sun[edit]
Main article: Miracle of the Sun

Chapel of Apparitions, built at the place where the Fátima apparitions were reported

Page from Ilustração Portuguesa, 29 October 1917, showing the people looking at the Sun during the Fátima apparitions attributed to the Virgin Mary.
As early as July 1917 it was claimed that the Virgin Mary had promised a miracle for the last of her apparitions on October 13, so that all would believe. What happened then became known as the "Miracle of the Sun". A huge crowd, variously estimated between 30,000 and 100,000,[9] including newspaper reporters and photographers, gathered at the Cova da Iria. The incessant rain had ceased and there was a thin layer of cloud. Lúcia, seeing light rising from the lady's hands and the sun appearing as a silver disk, called out "look at the sun". She later had no memory of saying this.[6] Witnesses later spoke of the sun appearing to change colors and rotate like a wheel.[10] Witnesses gave widely varying descriptions of the "sun's dance". Poet Afonso Lopes Vieira and schoolteacher Delfina Lopes (with her students and other witnesses in the town of Alburita), reported that the solar phenomenon was visible up to forty kilometers away.[10]

Columnist Avelino de Almeida of O Século (Portugal's most influential newspaper, which was pro-government in policy and avowedly anti-clerical),[6] reported the following: "Before the astonished eyes of the crowd, whose aspect was biblical as they stood bare-headed, eagerly searching the sky, the sun trembled, made sudden incredible movements outside all cosmic laws - the sun 'danced' according to the typical expression of the people."[11] Eye specialist Dr. Domingos Pinto Coelho, writing for the newspaper Ordem reported "The sun, at one moment surrounded with scarlet flame, at another aureoled in yellow and deep purple, seemed to be in an exceeding fast and whirling movement, at times appearing to be loosened from the sky and to be approaching the earth, strongly radiating heat".[12] The special reporter for the October 17, 1917 edition of the Lisbon daily, O Dia, reported the following, "...the silver sun, enveloped in the same gauzy purple light was seen to whirl and turn in the circle of broken clouds...The light turned a beautiful blue, as if it had come through the stained-glass windows of a cathedral, and spread itself over the people who knelt with outstretched hands...people wept and prayed with uncovered heads, in the presence of a miracle they had awaited. The seconds seemed like hours, so vivid were they."[13]

No movement or other phenomenon of the sun was recorded by scientists at the time.[6] Not all witnesses reported seeing the sun "dance". Some people only saw the radiant colors, and others, including some believers, saw nothing at all.[14][15]

Various explanations have been advanced. Auguste Meessen, a professor at the Institute of Physics, Catholic University of Leuven, points out that looking directly at the Sun is known to cause phosphene visual artifacts and temporary partial blindness. Meessen contends that retinal after-images produced after brief periods of sun gazing are a likely cause of the "dancing" effects, and the colour changes were caused by the bleaching of photosensitive retinal cells.[16] Meessen observes that solar miracles have been witnessed in many places where people have been encouraged to stare at the sun. He cites the apparitions at Heroldsbach, Bavaria, Germany (1949) as an example where exactly the same optical effects as at Fátima were witnessed by more than 10,000 people.[16] Another theory is a mass hallucination stimulated by the religious fervor of the crowd.

Some onlookers reported other phenomena, including luminous mist and the showers of flower petals seen around and above the tree during previous visitations.

While the crowd was staring at the sun, Lucia, Francisco, and Jacinta said later they saw images of the Holy Family, Our Lady of Sorrows with Jesus Christ, and then Our Lady of Mount Carmel. They said they saw Saint Joseph and Jesus bless the people.[17]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Our_Lady_of_Fátima

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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27-11-2014, 08:31 PM (This post was last modified: 27-11-2014 09:04 PM by Free.)
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 07:59 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  
(27-11-2014 06:42 PM)Free Wrote:  Actually, no.

What I am asking for is an alternate plausible explanation that fits the available evidence.

This is a "persuasive" argument based upon the available evidence. Nothing here is conclusive. All I am asking for is exactly what I said; an alternate plausible explanation that fits the available evidence.

And recall what I said in an earlier post; this particular incident hits a 7 out of 10 on my credibility scale. That definitely demonstrates plenty of room for doubt on my part.

So ... better explanation?

Than alien craft? Literally anything short of the supernatural. Group hallucination, classified aircraft, swamp gas, mistaken identification of ordinary aircraft, take your pick all are far more likely than Aliens.

Group Hallucination? In one the busiest airports in the world you are suggesting that its employees were all hallucinating about the same thing? Why just these 12? Why not everybody at the airport? No one else at the airport reported any kind of hallucination of any kind.

Group Hallucination is not plausible.

Classified Aircraft? So the government thought they should expose a classified aircraft over one of the busiest airports in the world? I know the government is stupid, but seriously? Also, can you demonstrate with evidence that the government has ever made anything remotely close to what was described by the witnesses? I seriously doubt you can.

Classified Aircraft is not plausible.

Swamp Gas? With no swamp? At 1600 feet? In the shape of a metallic saucer? Swamp gas blew a hole in the clouds at over 2000 feet? lol ... ummm ... no.

Swamp Gas is not plausible.

Mistaken Identification of Ordinary Aircraft? 12 different people who worked with "ordinary aircraft" on a daily basis all described something that did not resemble or behave like any ordinary aircraft. These are people who work with ordinary aircraft every day, and you think they all failed to recognize an ordinary aircraft?

Mistaken Identification of Ordinary Aircraft is not plausible.

But you go ahead pick any one of those possibilities and make it fit the available evidence, and demonstrate reasoning on how that evidence fits your theory.

Here is what we know about the evidence:

All 12 witness described a grayish metallic disc shaped craft hovering approximately 1600 feet above an airport hanger. They reported that the vehicle accelerated upwards towards orbit through the clouds at an incredible speed, leaving a gaping hole in the clouds.

Both United Airlines and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) first denied that they had any information on the O'Hare UFO sighting. The Chicago Tribune, which was investigating the report, filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request. The FAA then ordered an internal review of air-traffic communications tapes to comply with the Tribune FOIA request which subsequently uncovered a call by the United supervisor to an FAA manager in the airport tower concerning the UFO sighting, demonstrating evidence that the reports were known, and that a possible cover-up occurred.

That's all I'm asking.

How can anyone become an atheist when we are all born with no beliefs in the first place? We are atheists because we were born this way.
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27-11-2014, 08:46 PM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
I’m sure you’ve heard of lenticular clouds, to me, of all the things people mistake for flying saucers, they are the most misidentified of all.

If you google “lenticular clouds” the collection is amazing and I can see why someone would mistake one for a UFO.

Lightning behind one of these could explain flashing lights, as for the rest, I don’t know.

Just a few images.

[Image: lenticularcloudufo.jpg]

[Image: 27jan_lenticular_clouds_289.jpg]

[Image: lenticular1.jpg]

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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27-11-2014, 08:50 PM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 08:29 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  
(27-11-2014 05:57 PM)Free Wrote:  According to all 12 witnesses:

1. It had a metallic disc shaped appearance.
2. It had flashing lights.
3. It was hovering approximately 1600 feet above the ground.
4. It quickly moved straight up, pushing the clouds aside into a perfect circle, and then disappeared in the upper atmosphere.

I take your point that 12 people saying they saw the same thing should lead credence to the sighting and yet it pales in comparison to the 30,000-100,000 who saw the sun “dance” in the sky during the Fatima apparitions. Does anyone really think the sun “danced in the sky” or move erratically? 30,000-100,000 people back then say it did. Mass hallucinations can and do occur.


Bolding mine

Miracle of the Sun[edit]
Main article: Miracle of the Sun

Chapel of Apparitions, built at the place where the Fátima apparitions were reported

Page from Ilustração Portuguesa, 29 October 1917, showing the people looking at the Sun during the Fátima apparitions attributed to the Virgin Mary.
As early as July 1917 it was claimed that the Virgin Mary had promised a miracle for the last of her apparitions on October 13, so that all would believe. What happened then became known as the "Miracle of the Sun". A huge crowd, variously estimated between 30,000 and 100,000,[9] including newspaper reporters and photographers, gathered at the Cova da Iria. The incessant rain had ceased and there was a thin layer of cloud. Lúcia, seeing light rising from the lady's hands and the sun appearing as a silver disk, called out "look at the sun". She later had no memory of saying this.[6] Witnesses later spoke of the sun appearing to change colors and rotate like a wheel.[10] Witnesses gave widely varying descriptions of the "sun's dance". Poet Afonso Lopes Vieira and schoolteacher Delfina Lopes (with her students and other witnesses in the town of Alburita), reported that the solar phenomenon was visible up to forty kilometers away.[10]

Columnist Avelino de Almeida of O Século (Portugal's most influential newspaper, which was pro-government in policy and avowedly anti-clerical),[6] reported the following: "Before the astonished eyes of the crowd, whose aspect was biblical as they stood bare-headed, eagerly searching the sky, the sun trembled, made sudden incredible movements outside all cosmic laws - the sun 'danced' according to the typical expression of the people."[11] Eye specialist Dr. Domingos Pinto Coelho, writing for the newspaper Ordem reported "The sun, at one moment surrounded with scarlet flame, at another aureoled in yellow and deep purple, seemed to be in an exceeding fast and whirling movement, at times appearing to be loosened from the sky and to be approaching the earth, strongly radiating heat".[12] The special reporter for the October 17, 1917 edition of the Lisbon daily, O Dia, reported the following, "...the silver sun, enveloped in the same gauzy purple light was seen to whirl and turn in the circle of broken clouds...The light turned a beautiful blue, as if it had come through the stained-glass windows of a cathedral, and spread itself over the people who knelt with outstretched hands...people wept and prayed with uncovered heads, in the presence of a miracle they had awaited. The seconds seemed like hours, so vivid were they."[13]

No movement or other phenomenon of the sun was recorded by scientists at the time.[6] Not all witnesses reported seeing the sun "dance". Some people only saw the radiant colors, and others, including some believers, saw nothing at all.[14][15]

Various explanations have been advanced. Auguste Meessen, a professor at the Institute of Physics, Catholic University of Leuven, points out that looking directly at the Sun is known to cause phosphene visual artifacts and temporary partial blindness. Meessen contends that retinal after-images produced after brief periods of sun gazing are a likely cause of the "dancing" effects, and the colour changes were caused by the bleaching of photosensitive retinal cells.[16] Meessen observes that solar miracles have been witnessed in many places where people have been encouraged to stare at the sun. He cites the apparitions at Heroldsbach, Bavaria, Germany (1949) as an example where exactly the same optical effects as at Fátima were witnessed by more than 10,000 people.[16] Another theory is a mass hallucination stimulated by the religious fervor of the crowd.

Some onlookers reported other phenomena, including luminous mist and the showers of flower petals seen around and above the tree during previous visitations.

While the crowd was staring at the sun, Lucia, Francisco, and Jacinta said later they saw images of the Holy Family, Our Lady of Sorrows with Jesus Christ, and then Our Lady of Mount Carmel. They said they saw Saint Joseph and Jesus bless the people.[17]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Our_Lady_of_Fátima

This I would not consider a case of mass hallucination as much as I would consider it to be mass hysteria.

All those people were predisposed to expect something supernatural to occur on that specific day. They went there for a sign. All it took is for one prominent religious ring leader to say "look, the sun is spinning" and the hysteria took hold.

The sun incident was suggested to them.

This cannot compare to the Chicago O'Hare situation. Those 12 witnesses expected nothing, and were only there to do their jobs. They were separated by their job positions.

Nothing at all was suggested to them.

How can anyone become an atheist when we are all born with no beliefs in the first place? We are atheists because we were born this way.
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27-11-2014, 08:54 PM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 08:46 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  I’m sure you’ve heard of lenticular clouds, to me, of all the things people mistake for flying saucers, they are the most misidentified of all.

If you google “lenticular clouds” the collection is amazing and I can see why someone would mistake one for a UFO.

Lightning behind one of these could explain flashing lights, as for the rest, I don’t know.

Just a few images.

[Image: lenticularcloudufo.jpg]

[Image: 27jan_lenticular_clouds_289.jpg]

[Image: lenticular1.jpg]

I agree that those magnificent clouds often get mistaken for UFOs. But again, we are dealing with 12 witnesses who are highly experienced with aircraft and clouds, since they worked at one of the busiest airports in the world.

In interviews, the cloud/weather phenomenon question was asked, and the witnesses laughed at the suggestion, and emphatically denied it was any kind of weather occurrence.

How can anyone become an atheist when we are all born with no beliefs in the first place? We are atheists because we were born this way.
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27-11-2014, 09:17 PM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 08:31 PM)Free Wrote:  Also, can you demonstrate with evidence that the government has ever made anything remotely close to what was described by the witnesses? I seriously doubt you can.
Can you demonstrate, with evidence, that aliens have ever made anything remotely close to what was described by the witnesses? I seriously doubt you can.

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27-11-2014, 09:21 PM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 08:31 PM)Free Wrote:  
(27-11-2014 07:59 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  Than alien craft? Literally anything short of the supernatural. Group hallucination, classified aircraft, swamp gas, mistaken identification of ordinary aircraft, take your pick all are far more likely than Aliens.

Group Hallucination? In one the busiest airports in the world you are suggesting that its employees were all hallucinating about the same thing? Why just these 12? Why not everybody at the airport? No one else at the airport reported any kind of hallucination of any kind.

Group Hallucination is not plausible.

Classified Aircraft? So the government thought they should expose a classified aircraft over one of the busiest airports in the world? I know the government is stupid, but seriously? Also, can you demonstrate with evidence that the government has ever made anything remotely close to what was described by the witnesses? I seriously doubt you can.

Classified Aircraft is not plausible.

Swamp Gas? With no swamp? At 1600 feet? In the shape of a metallic saucer? Swamp gas blew a hole in the clouds at over 2000 feet? lol ... ummm ... no.

Swamp Gas is not plausible.

Mistaken Identification of Ordinary Aircraft? 12 different people who worked with "ordinary aircraft" on a daily basis all described something that did not resemble or behave like any ordinary aircraft. These are people who work with ordinary aircraft every day, and you think they all failed to recognize an ordinary aircraft?

Mistaken Identification of Ordinary Aircraft is not plausible.

But you go ahead pick any one of those possibilities and make it fit the available evidence, and demonstrate reasoning on how that evidence fits your theory.

Here is what we know about the evidence:

All 12 witness described a grayish metallic disc shaped craft hovering approximately 1600 feet above an airport hanger. They reported that the vehicle accelerated upwards towards orbit through the clouds at an incredible speed, leaving a gaping hole in the clouds.

Both United Airlines and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) first denied that they had any information on the O'Hare UFO sighting. The Chicago Tribune, which was investigating the report, filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request. The FAA then ordered an internal review of air-traffic communications tapes to comply with the Tribune FOIA request which subsequently uncovered a call by the United supervisor to an FAA manager in the airport tower concerning the UFO sighting, demonstrating evidence that the reports were known, and that a possible cover-up occurred.

That's all I'm asking.

The busiest airspace in the world and 12 people saw this? I am far more inclined to disbelieve their testimony than to accept that the other hundreds of thousands of people, including the air traffic controllers and pilots and news agencies that would be getting the scoop of the century in one of the biggest media markets in the world all happened to miss this. How is it that a meteorite exploding over Russia had 50 videos yet this event had 12 people who think they thought they saw something? Sorry their testimony is not credible, thus making every other explanation more likely.

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27-11-2014, 09:23 PM (This post was last modified: 27-11-2014 09:43 PM by Free.)
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 09:17 PM)Vosur Wrote:  
(27-11-2014 08:31 PM)Free Wrote:  Also, can you demonstrate with evidence that the government has ever made anything remotely close to what was described by the witnesses? I seriously doubt you can.
Can you demonstrate, with evidence, that aliens have ever made anything remotely close to what was described by the witnesses? I seriously doubt you can.

No, I cannot.

But that is not the point, is it? Nor does it dispute mine at all.

The point is quite clear; there is absolutely no evidence that mankind has ever created any kind of aircraft that was described by the 12 witnesses at the Chicago O'Hare airport.

If mankind had created such an incredible vehicle, I seriously doubt we would be needing to fly in shuttles that blow up, rockets that explode on the launch pad, or Richard Branson's wanna-be space-craft, which dramatically failed.

Consider

How can anyone become an atheist when we are all born with no beliefs in the first place? We are atheists because we were born this way.
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27-11-2014, 09:38 PM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 09:21 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  The busiest airspace in the world and 12 people saw this? I am far more inclined to disbelieve their testimony than to accept that the other hundreds of thousands of people, including the air traffic controllers and pilots and news agencies that would be getting the scoop of the century in one of the biggest media markets in the world all happened to miss this. How is it that a meteorite exploding over Russia had 50 videos yet this event had 12 people who think they thought they saw something? Sorry their testimony is not credible, thus making every other explanation more likely.

12 people came forward about it. That doesn't mean more didn't see it. Also, where did you get this idea that there hundreds of thousands of people at the Chicago airport?

Every major network covered this story the day it happened. In fact, it was covered for days.

The meteor that exploded had 50 videos because the year was 2013, and cell phones with video capabilities were everywhere.

The O'Hare incident happened in 2006, and only about half of cell-phones had a built-in camera at the time. Also, cell phone users in 2013 greatly outnumber cell phone users from 2006. And finally, they were employees, and may not have had access, or were allowed to have access, to any kind of personal phone on company time.

Sorry, but their testimony IS credible.

How can anyone become an atheist when we are all born with no beliefs in the first place? We are atheists because we were born this way.
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