That Damn UFO Thing
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27-11-2014, 10:14 PM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 09:23 PM)Free Wrote:  No, I cannot.

But that is not the point, is it? Nor does it dispute mine at all.

The point is quite clear; there is absolutely no evidence that mankind has ever created any kind of aircraft that was described by the 12 witnesses at the Chicago O'Hare airport.

If mankind had created such an incredible vehicle, I seriously doubt we would be needing to fly in shuttles that blow up, rockets that explode on the launch pad, or Richard Branson's wanna-be space-craft, which dramatically failed.

Consider
Likewise, there is absolutely no evidence that aliens exist or that they would be capable of building such a 'vehicle'. You don't get to make up shit without any evidence whatsoever and then claim that your guess is any more plausible than ours.

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28-11-2014, 04:33 AM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 08:31 PM)Free Wrote:  Classified Aircraft? So the government thought they should expose a classified aircraft over one of the busiest airports in the world? I know the government is stupid, but seriously? Also, can you demonstrate with evidence that the government has ever made anything remotely close to what was described by the witnesses? I seriously doubt you can.

Classified Aircraft is not plausible.

So the aliens thought they should expose their secret aircraft over one of the busiest airports in the world? We know they're stupid, but seriously?

(27-11-2014 09:38 PM)Free Wrote:  12 people came forward about it. That doesn't mean more didn't see it. Also, where did you get this idea that there hundreds of thousands of people at the Chicago airport?

Every major network covered this story the day it happened. In fact, it was covered for days.

The meteor that exploded had 50 videos because the year was 2013, and cell phones with video capabilities were everywhere.

The O'Hare incident happened in 2006, and only about half of cell-phones had a built-in camera at the time. Also, cell phone users in 2013 greatly outnumber cell phone users from 2006. And finally, they were employees, and may not have had access, or were allowed to have access, to any kind of personal phone on company time.

I assume that at least some of the people in the airport saw it and didn't talk then. Shouldn't at least some of them be simply passengers?
You are assuming that people only took photos with their cell phones in 2006. Well, what better place to find a camera than in an airport? You'd think people would take photos when they are on vacations Confused

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28-11-2014, 05:38 AM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 09:23 PM)Free Wrote:  
(27-11-2014 09:17 PM)Vosur Wrote:  Can you demonstrate, with evidence, that aliens have ever made anything remotely close to what was described by the witnesses? I seriously doubt you can.

No, I cannot.

But that is not the point, is it? Nor does it dispute mine at all.

The point is quite clear; there is absolutely no evidence that mankind has ever created any kind of aircraft that was described by the 12 witnesses at the Chicago O'Hare airport.

If mankind had created such an incredible vehicle, I seriously doubt we would be needing to fly in shuttles that blow up, rockets that explode on the launch pad, or Richard Branson's wanna-be space-craft, which dramatically failed.

Consider

Except that there is no evidence that what they saw was an aircraft. None. Nada. Zip. Zilch.

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28-11-2014, 07:23 AM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 09:23 PM)Free Wrote:  
(27-11-2014 09:17 PM)Vosur Wrote:  Can you demonstrate, with evidence, that aliens have ever made anything remotely close to what was described by the witnesses? I seriously doubt you can.

No, I cannot.

But that is not the point, is it? Nor does it dispute mine at all.

The point is quite clear; there is absolutely no evidence that mankind has ever created any kind of aircraft that was described by the 12 witnesses at the Chicago O'Hare airport.

If mankind had created such an incredible vehicle, I seriously doubt we would be needing to fly in shuttles that blow up, rockets that explode on the launch pad, or Richard Branson's wanna-be space-craft, which dramatically failed.

Consider

Your position is less probable then the proposed alternatives if you apply Occam's Razor in an intellectually honest way.

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28-11-2014, 09:09 AM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 08:21 PM)unfogged Wrote:  
(27-11-2014 06:50 PM)Free Wrote:  a) 20%
b) 30%
c) 10%
d) 14.99 %
e) 25%
f) 0.01%
g) 0%
h) 0%

Thank you, those numbers seem pretty reasonable to me overall. The odds of alien spacecraft being the answer in 1 out of 10000 cases is higher than I would put it but much better than I expected. I've said before that I think terminology is a big stumbling block for me understanding your position and getting some numbers helps quite a bit. Terms like possible, probable, likely, compelling, and such imply different levels of certainty to different people.

In this particular instance, I'm walking into the question with the prior assumption that those probabilities describe the options and then I'd have to apply the specific evidence to adjust accordingly. The evidence I'm given is:
1. It had a metallic disc shaped appearance.
2. It had flashing lights.
3. It was hovering approximately 1600 feet above the ground.
4. It quickly moved straight up, pushing the clouds aside into a perfect circle, and then disappeared in the upper atmosphere.

#1 and #3 could be true for any of the identified categories so they don't really affect my conclusion in any way. #2 probably makes (a) less likely although natural phenomena can produce flashing lights. #4 I could argue also could be true for any of them but I'll grant that it may also make (a) less likely. Putting it all together though I'm still going to be much more than 90% sure that the answer is one of the other options and not aliens. Even if I completely rule out hoaxes and natural phenomena it is still more likely than not to be one of the other options and I don't think it'd be valid to do that with the available evidence.

If I had to place a probability scale on whether or not 12 experienced eyewitnesses- who all described the exact same thing as being a metallic disc shaped object hovering 1600 feet above a hanger which accelerated through the clouds into space- it would be 90%.

To me, it's not a question of it not being a vehicle of some sort. According to 12 witnesses, it most definitely was. So that issue is really a 90% non-issue. It does not mean it is conclusive, but damn near it and close enough to certainly be exceptionally credible.

The reason my overall assessment is 70% is because we do not know for certainty who was piloting the craft; man, or non human.

But because of man's known air/space craft current capabilities, and with the history we have of those crafts (speed, dependability, maneuverability, design etc), and with what the 12 witnesses described, I find it improbable that such an amazing craft could possibly be man-made.

A craft like that hovering over such a busy airport makes no sense at all if it were some kind of classified government aircraft. None whatsoever. Therefore, the possibility of it being man-made is very low, at about 45% on my scale.

If it was non human, then what other options do we have?

Like I keep saying, we do not need a little green man to apply some reason here.

Beware, long run-on sentence coming up!

All I am looking for is the best possible explanation, and considering the fact that UFOs definitely exist and many of the ones that displayed characteristics similar to the O'Hare incident were classified as "unknown" by leading government officials who have the capability to identify virtually all known aircraft, and considering what the possibilities are with the known universe, then the possibility of it being alien life is very real.

So considering all the evidence, the possibility of it being controlled by non human life is equal to or greater than the possibility of it being human. But not less.

I do allow a 10% margin of error.

Quote:
Quote:you have no problems accepting as plausible the extraordinary claim of a singularity and space expansion, but when someone else makes what you deem to be an extraordinary claim ... well wow ... the empirical card must be played.

That wasn't in a reply to me but if I may... the situations are not at all identical. Scientists are able to examine the physical evidence of the universe. They can measure the speed of light, the expansion rate and size of the universe, and do so repeatedly with ever better instruments. They can apply the laws they've discovered and work backwards to the beginning. They can make predictions about what else they should find if the model is correct and use that to refine the model. In other words, scientists have tons of empirical evidence to work with to support what may intuitively seem like an extraordinary claim. I accept that as the best available answer because when I ask "how do you know" I get a reply based on evidence and logic with the appropriate caveats and not "what else could it be". UFO sightings are one-offs with no unambiguous evidence and simply aren't a better answer than "I don't know" at this time.

But nonetheless, since we do not have a singularity, nor can we actually see space expanding, then conclusive evidence is still not present. Scientists are "observing" evidence, which is no different than the 12 witnesses who observed the craft. Both observe and make an evaluation based upon what they observed.

But both can still rightfully be assessed as making an extraordinary claim.

But now I want to ask a question here, and this is for anyone and everyone. The question will require you to give a definite answer, and not an answer of "I don't know."

If any of you had to make a decision of yes or no in regards to the question of whether or not intelligent alien life exists in the known universe, please respond with your answers in your next post, and with a probability scale greater or less than 50%. No fence sitters please. Make a decision either way.

Here's an example:

"I am 51% persuaded that intelligent alien life does not exist in the known universe."

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28-11-2014, 09:24 AM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(27-11-2014 10:14 PM)Vosur Wrote:  
(27-11-2014 09:23 PM)Free Wrote:  No, I cannot.

But that is not the point, is it? Nor does it dispute mine at all.

The point is quite clear; there is absolutely no evidence that mankind has ever created any kind of aircraft that was described by the 12 witnesses at the Chicago O'Hare airport.

If mankind had created such an incredible vehicle, I seriously doubt we would be needing to fly in shuttles that blow up, rockets that explode on the launch pad, or Richard Branson's wanna-be space-craft, which dramatically failed.

Consider
Likewise, there is absolutely no evidence that aliens exist or that they would be capable of building such a 'vehicle'. You don't get to make up shit without any evidence whatsoever and then claim that your guess is any more plausible than ours.

I have given evidence. I can't help you if you can't reason with it. If you need a little green man to conclusively prove it to you, then go find one. Big Grin

What I am saying is, given all the evidence on the UFO question, the existence of aliens is very plausible.

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28-11-2014, 09:28 AM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(28-11-2014 04:33 AM)undergroundp Wrote:  
(27-11-2014 08:31 PM)Free Wrote:  Classified Aircraft? So the government thought they should expose a classified aircraft over one of the busiest airports in the world? I know the government is stupid, but seriously? Also, can you demonstrate with evidence that the government has ever made anything remotely close to what was described by the witnesses? I seriously doubt you can.

Classified Aircraft is not plausible.

So the aliens thought they should expose their secret aircraft over one of the busiest airports in the world? We know they're stupid, but seriously?

That's assuming they cared whether or not anyone seen it, correct? Why are you comparing an alien mindset to a human mindset?

Quote:
(27-11-2014 09:38 PM)Free Wrote:  12 people came forward about it. That doesn't mean more didn't see it. Also, where did you get this idea that there hundreds of thousands of people at the Chicago airport?

Every major network covered this story the day it happened. In fact, it was covered for days.

The meteor that exploded had 50 videos because the year was 2013, and cell phones with video capabilities were everywhere.

The O'Hare incident happened in 2006, and only about half of cell-phones had a built-in camera at the time. Also, cell phone users in 2013 greatly outnumber cell phone users from 2006. And finally, they were employees, and may not have had access, or were allowed to have access, to any kind of personal phone on company time.

I assume that at least some of the people in the airport saw it and didn't talk then. Shouldn't at least some of them be simply passengers?
You are assuming that people only took photos with their cell phones in 2006. Well, what better place to find a camera than in an airport? You'd think people would take photos when they are on vacations Confused

It was over a hangar where aircraft were not landing or taking off. It was in an area where aircraft were being taxied in and out of a hanger. That is why only employees seen it. They were the only ones in the area.

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28-11-2014, 09:35 AM
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(28-11-2014 05:38 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(27-11-2014 09:23 PM)Free Wrote:  No, I cannot.

But that is not the point, is it? Nor does it dispute mine at all.

The point is quite clear; there is absolutely no evidence that mankind has ever created any kind of aircraft that was described by the 12 witnesses at the Chicago O'Hare airport.

If mankind had created such an incredible vehicle, I seriously doubt we would be needing to fly in shuttles that blow up, rockets that explode on the launch pad, or Richard Branson's wanna-be space-craft, which dramatically failed.

Consider

Except that there is no evidence that what they saw was an aircraft. None. Nada. Zip. Zilch.

Okay, so I guess if you were a judge in a criminal trial case and 12 witnesses confirmed what the criminal did, you would dismiss their testimonies because they provided no evidence, right?

Here's a scenario:

There are 14 people in a room, 7 men, and 7 women. One of the men was heard to be sexually harassing one of the women. Everybody heard it.

The case goes to trial. We have one defendant, one victim, and 12 witnesses.

All 12 witnesses testify what they heard, and all twelve agree that the defendant sexually harassed the victim. There is no other evidence except the testimony of the 12 witnesses.

Will the judge convict based ONLY on eyewitness testimony?

We both know the answer don't we. Why will he convict on eyewitness testimony alone?

Okay?

Got ya. Wink

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28-11-2014, 09:39 AM
AW: RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(28-11-2014 09:24 AM)Free Wrote:  I have given evidence. I can't help you if you can't reason with it. If you need a little green man to conclusively prove it to you, then go find one. Big Grin
Go fuck yourself, you disingenuous cunt.

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28-11-2014, 09:44 AM (This post was last modified: 28-11-2014 09:56 AM by Free.)
RE: That Damn UFO Thing
(28-11-2014 09:39 AM)Vosur Wrote:  
(28-11-2014 09:24 AM)Free Wrote:  I have given evidence. I can't help you if you can't reason with it. If you need a little green man to conclusively prove it to you, then go find one. Big Grin
Go fuck yourself, you disingenuous cunt.

Hey now, harsh words.

Relax, it's only a discussion.

And I do apologize for my attempt to ridicule.

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