The Agony of the Islamic State
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19-09-2017, 10:22 PM
The Agony of the Islamic State
The Syrian Civil War is about to enter in a new stage. The rightfully dreaded Islamic State is on the verge of collapse in Syria and Iraq. Mosul, their most important stronghold in the region and the site of the proclamation of the Califate, is now back under control of the Iraqi government. Only three little town remain under their control and should be overrun in matters of weeks. The valuable oil field that provided much of the organisation resources have returned to the Iraqi government hands. The liquidity they managed to obtain by pillaging banks in major urban centers, like Mosul, are already pretty much exhausted.

Raqqa, their ''capital'' is currently over 70% under control of the SDF, a Kurde dominated militia and official fighting force of the de facto State of Rojava/Federation of Northern Syria. Its expected that by the end of the month of October the entire city and suburbia should be under control of the SDF. South, the last major city in Syria under their control, Deir er-Zor, is currently surrounded and besieged by the Syrian Government forces who managed to free the few enclave still loyal to them from ISIS forces. Its also expected that the city will fall in Assad hands before November. The Syrian Government forces as well as the Kurde led coalition are also racing to secure the oil fields and the scarcly populated town of the Eastern border of the country. It would be surprising for the Islamic State to survive more than a few months.

With the one force that kept the various coalitions and diverging national interests more or less aligned gone, I wonder what we can expect from the near future. Will the de facto State of Rojava/Federation of Northern Syria manage to maintain its various component united under its social project (a multi-ethnic, communalist, federalist and feminist State) or will Kurde and Arab nationalist split it appart? Will the SDF and the Syrian Armed Force face each other in a serious battle for the first time? What will Turkey who doesn't support Assad and hate the Kurdes do? Can Washington and Moscow get to an agreement on what to do with Syria? How will the important presence of Hezbollah and Iranian forces affect the future of Syria? Can Donald Trump administration manage to push American interests in the region?

In my opinion, we are inevitably heading toward a partition of Syria. Its unprobable that the Syrian Government will be capable of getting Nothern Syria back into its fold. The Kurdes and the Syriac have little to gain by returning under Assad rule. Simultaniously, its doubtfull that the Syrian Government has the necessary support to conduct large scale military operation against them. I do think that the Federation of Northern Syria will retain its component united under their social project because its simply a better alternative for everybody than the Ba'ath or Islamist regime. It will gain first a strong regional authonomy and than an official independance in the comming years despite Turkey attempt to distabilise them. The Iraqi Kurdistan will probably vote in favor of its independance on September 25, but it will take a few years of negotiation and other plebiscites for it to fully take effect. It will not result in massive display of violence or outright civil war, but there will be a few ''incidients'' between Kurdes and Iraqi.

What do you think about this turn of event?

PS: No Trump doesn't have what it takes to make important gains for the US and its allies in the region. In fact, his inexperience and lack of consistency will be a source of massive problems and actively threaten chances of democratisation of those two countries.

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20-09-2017, 01:47 AM
RE: The Agony of the Islamic State
I still am sceptic about any kurdish state being created. This didnt happen for a long, long time, due to the interestes of variou sneighbours of the kurds.

We will see. These are "interesting" times we are living in.

Ceterum censeo, religionem delendam esse
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20-09-2017, 06:01 AM
RE: The Agony of the Islamic State
The borders of the middle east were largely imposed by the west.
The Kurds had always considered their territories as "Kurdistan".
It just was not recognized by anyone but them and today it's split across the territories of some of the most authoritarian regimes in the region.

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20-09-2017, 07:10 AM
RE: The Agony of the Islamic State
My prediction. If the area runs out of bombs and bullets - they' ll go back to killing each other with rocks.

It's the " national pastime" of the whole area.

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
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20-09-2017, 08:53 AM
RE: The Agony of the Islamic State
(20-09-2017 07:10 AM)onlinebiker Wrote:  My prediction. If the area runs out of bombs and bullets - they' ll go back to killing each other with rocks.

It's the " national pastime" of the whole area.

Clearly the area has nothing to do with it.
The only reason why certain areas are largely war free is an indication of hegemony.
Not a more civilized society.

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