The European Union UK Referendum
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02-06-2016, 05:47 AM
RE: The European Union UK Referendum
(02-06-2016 04:54 AM)morondog Wrote:  
(02-06-2016 03:05 AM)Slowminded Wrote:  Britain wouldn`t need to beg for the access to EU market. Britain is importing much more then it is exporting. EU need Britain much more then Britain needs EU in trading sense. What do you think, that Mercedes will stop selling cars to Brits?

More importantly , you absolutely don`t need to be a part of EU to trade with EU countries.

People seem to forget that countries like Switzerland and Norway are not the part of EU and they have no problem trading with EU countries.
In fact Switzerland is an exporting giant compared to UK , they have ~ 50 billion euro surplus in trade with the EU per year, while UK has a huge deficit.
Not to mention China and US , who are the biggest trading partners with EU.
Britain will be able to trade with EU just like any other country can.

If Britain leaves the EU first before negotiating their access to the market, they put themselves in a position of absolute weakness. They *need* access to that market on favourable terms which they will not have any leverage to get. Sure, trade won't *stop* but equally, France/Germany/other EU countries aren't going to just sit back and say "well that's peachy, you can have everything the way it was before except now it's free". There will be repercussions - tariffs on British exports to the EU etc, and you know, the Brits won't walk away with a better deal. They'll be *forced* to accept a deal that's at least as bad (although maybe bad in different ways) as the one they've currently got, because it's the only deal they'll be offered.

Brits leave EU.
EU says fuck you, import tax on British goods. Oh by the way, we'll sell you our Mercedes at a higher cost too.
Brits say "Waa! We want fair treatment."
EU says "Who the fuck are you?"

No.

Brits leave EU

EU says "oh fuck what are we going to do with all the shit we have been selling to Brits "
(like I mentioned before, EU is selling much much more to Brits then Brits have been selling to EU , any taxes imposed hurt EU much more then they hurt the Brits because they go both ways )

Brits say : fuck your expensive Mercedes , I`m buying Mazda or maybe I will re-establish our own car industry that has been destroyed be EU regulations.

EU: Please buy our Mercedes

What the hell makes you think that EU has the upper hand in this trading negotiations that will take place if Britain leaves EU?
Don`t you understand that the one who is buying more stuff ( Britain in this case ) has the stronger position in the negotiations then the one who is selling more stuff ( EU ) ?
If both EU and Britain impose tariffs on each other goods , it is the EU who will be on the losing end , not Britain.

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02-06-2016, 06:28 AM
RE: The European Union UK Referendum
(02-06-2016 05:27 AM)adey67 Wrote:  I'm voting using my head rather than my heart, head says remain heart says leave, its just that a vote to leave creates too much uncertainty in terms of economics. Get it wrong and the country gets fucked up at least we know where we are being in the EU we do NOT know what will happen if we leave. People on both sides of the debate THINK they know the consequences of leaving but the truth is NO ONE KNOWS and to me that's an unacceptable level of risk.
I use the analogy of a man with a bullet lodged in his body that is not doing him any harm choosing to have a very risky surgery to remove it.

I would like to thank you in advance for all the money that you will be giving us when we join the EU.

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02-06-2016, 06:41 AM
RE: The European Union UK Referendum
(02-06-2016 05:47 AM)Slowminded Wrote:  What the hell makes you think that EU has the upper hand in this trading negotiations that will take place if Britain leaves EU?

The fact that Britain wants out, instead of rather strengthening their bargaining position *within* the EU. If they are so essential to the EU, why *aren't* they already negotiating for preferential treatment? If the EU will be so easily strongarmed into a more favourable deal with Britain once the UK leaves, why aren't they offering the Brits better terms already?

What the hell makes *you* think that the other EU countries will meekly accept the Brits jumping ship, keeping their EU membership fee and also keeping full access to the benefits of being an EU member? If so then what's the point of any of those countries being EU members?

We'll love you just the way you are
If you're perfect -- Alanis Morissette
(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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02-06-2016, 07:17 AM
RE: The European Union UK Referendum
(02-06-2016 06:28 AM)Slowminded Wrote:  
(02-06-2016 05:27 AM)adey67 Wrote:  I'm voting using my head rather than my heart, head says remain heart says leave, its just that a vote to leave creates too much uncertainty in terms of economics. Get it wrong and the country gets fucked up at least we know where we are being in the EU we do NOT know what will happen if we leave. People on both sides of the debate THINK they know the consequences of leaving but the truth is NO ONE KNOWS and to me that's an unacceptable level of risk.
I use the analogy of a man with a bullet lodged in his body that is not doing him any harm choosing to have a very risky surgery to remove it.

I would like to thank you in advance for all the money that you will be giving us when we join the EU.

You're welcome don't spend it all at onceBig Grin
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02-06-2016, 08:43 AM
RE: The European Union UK Referendum
As an Aussie, I really couldn't give a fuck whether the Poms stay in the Union or leave it. Britannia no longer rules the waves, and won't rule us for much longer either.

I'm a creationist... I believe that man created God.
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02-06-2016, 08:53 AM
RE: The European Union UK Referendum
(02-06-2016 08:43 AM)SYZ Wrote:  As an Aussie, I really couldn't give a fuck whether the Poms stay in the Union or leave it. Britannia no longer rules the waves, and won't rule us for much longer either.
I wasn't aware we ruled you anymore, I mean you're part of the commonwealth but that's not the same as being ruled, although I do find it weird that your flag still incorporates the Union Jack, that does seem a bit odd. Btw almost 100% of us are very aware that we no longer rule the waves and haven't done for ages.
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02-06-2016, 08:58 AM
RE: The European Union UK Referendum
Britain in Europe think tank event warns against 'Brexit'

Oxford professor Ngaire Woods on Brexit and the European Single Market

What would 'Brexit' mean for free movement?

BREXIT – Vicky Redwood, Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics discusses.

The EU will be alright (see Vicky Redwood). Britain (possibly minus Scotland) and Cameron are the ones taking a massive gamble. To be fair, as much as I would be sad to see Britain go (historical and cultural reasons), it might strengthen the unity of the EU and help it move foreward so...
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02-06-2016, 09:00 AM
RE: The European Union UK Referendum
(01-06-2016 04:53 AM)morondog Wrote:  A bit like when Scotland suddenly decided they'd like to be their own country - what the hell was that about?

A grass roots movement 50 years in the making. Thatcher 30 years ago did more than anyone for the cause of Scottish independence. This was followed by the complacency of New Labour who showed themselves to prefer Westminster over Scotland. They were then replaced by the Tories again who also destroyed the Lib Dems.

Before Thatcher the Tories did quite well in Scotland. During and after Thatcher's reign the entire country voted Labour and were still ruled by the Tories. As each political party lost favour in Scotland there were fewer alternatives and the gap widened for the independence parties to demonstrate that they really were pro-Scotland, especially since devolution.
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02-06-2016, 09:04 AM
RE: The European Union UK Referendum
(02-06-2016 08:43 AM)SYZ Wrote:  As an Aussie, I really couldn't give a fuck whether the Poms stay in the Union or leave it. Britannia no longer rules the waves, and won't rule us for much longer either.

First thing you need to do is tell the queen to fuck off. Here in the UK the establishment is too strong but you guys are on the other side of the world. You have no excuse for not doing it sooner.
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02-06-2016, 09:12 AM
RE: The European Union UK Referendum
(02-06-2016 06:41 AM)morondog Wrote:  
(02-06-2016 05:47 AM)Slowminded Wrote:  What the hell makes you think that EU has the upper hand in this trading negotiations that will take place if Britain leaves EU?

The fact that Britain wants out, instead of rather strengthening their bargaining position *within* the EU. If they are so essential to the EU, why *aren't* they already negotiating for preferential treatment? If the EU will be so easily strongarmed into a more favourable deal with Britain once the UK leaves, why aren't they offering the Brits better terms already?

What the hell makes *you* think that the other EU countries will meekly accept the Brits jumping ship, keeping their EU membership fee and also keeping full access to the benefits of being an EU member? If so then what's the point of any of those countries being EU members?

Nowhere did I say that they were essential, but important they are. And preferential treatment is not what they are after.
EU can`t offer Britain what Britain wants , sovereignty , control over their borders and control over the laws they are governed by, because that would defeat the very purpose of the EU.

If other countries will accept it meekly or not is not important . It would be like saying that a person shouldn`t end the relationship that he is unhappy with because the other person might not take it meekly.
Hopefully other European countries will not act like butthurt children and will not try to hurt Britain out of revenge or spite for leaving EU damaging themselves in the process.

They might not keep ALL the benefits of being the EU member , but the money they will save far exceeds the value of those benefits.
Also, please remind what those benefits are anyway?

If you look at the link I provided earlier , you will see that UK is contributing 17 billion euro to the EU annually and gets only 6.3 billion back from the EU.
And while you are at it you might also check out how much, for example, Poland , Greece, Hungary ... contribute to the EU and how much they are getting back. It will became immediately clear why they are in the EU.

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