The Great Filter
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14-07-2016, 02:08 AM
The Great Filter
It is a curious question why we don't observe extra solar intelligent technological civilizations. Some have posited that there is probably some filter that prevents intelligent civilizations from existing for very long. Perhaps they all blow themselves up in nuclear wars shortly after developing that technology for instance.

I would like to suggest that it is possible the great filter is birth control. On this planet, in places where people have a choice, they choose not to reproduce in sufficient numbers to sustain the population. A fertility rate of 2.33 or higher is generally needed to sustain a population. The following is a sampling of fertility rates from around the world.

[Image: Total_Fertility_Rate_for_Select_Countries%2C_2010.png]

Below is a graph that includes historical and projected population data for Japan. As Japan goes, so will most of the world I suspect. As you can see in the graph, Japan's population is cratering.

[Image: Japanese_population_chart_1870-2100.png]

Religion is a reason why many people have large families and it is one tool that can get us past this filter. The existence of the human race might very well depend on the existence of religion.
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14-07-2016, 04:13 AM
RE: The Great Filter
Interesting hypothesis but I see some flaws.

Both Poland and the Philippines are overwhelming Catholic controlled countries so what gives there?

The Philippines has, since the date of that chart, introduced their Reproductive Health Bill which will slowly begin to emancipate women there and this is likely to impact birth-rates.

The chart does not include death-rate. This, I think, is the main reason that the poor, low-educated countries have higher birth rates. That and the lack of social security systems.

The correlation between religion and poverty/ignorance is the take-away here. Particularly Catholicism which thrives in that kinda petri dish.

Personally, I would welcome a world with less poverty, greater literacy and a sustainable rather than growing population.

Much better than a planet teeming with / over-populated with scientifically illiterate, fearful, superstitious and tribal pithecoids.

Smile

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14-07-2016, 04:29 AM
RE: The Great Filter
All of the population die off in Japan is projected. Where'd the graph come from, what happens if we update it with data to the present (it was clearly made circa 2000)?

Projecting such a major population crash seems pretty bold given that all of the data up until the projected region indicates that it has been increasing.

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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14-07-2016, 04:52 AM
RE: The Great Filter
(14-07-2016 02:08 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  It is a curious question why we don't observe extra solar intelligent technological civilizations. Some have posited that there is probably some filter that prevents intelligent civilizations from existing for very long. Perhaps they all blow themselves up in nuclear wars shortly after developing that technology for instance.

I would like to suggest that it is possible the great filter is birth control. On this planet, in places where people have a choice, they choose not to reproduce in sufficient numbers to sustain the population. A fertility rate of 2.33 or higher is generally needed to sustain a population. The following is a sampling of fertility rates from around the world.

[Image: Total_Fertility_Rate_for_Select_Countries%2C_2010.png]

Below is a graph that includes historical and projected population data for Japan. As Japan goes, so will most of the world I suspect. As you can see in the graph, Japan's population is cratering.

[Image: Japanese_population_chart_1870-2100.png]

Religion is a reason why many people have large families and it is one tool that can get us past this filter. The existence of the human race might very well depend on the existence of religion.

"Religion is a reason why many people have large families and it is one tool that can get us past this filter. The existence of the human race might very well depend on the existence of religion."

Agreed. Let's put a flying spaghetti monster worshipping government in every country, and suppress all other religions. We will fuck like rabbits and be happy. We will love each other, and all will be sweet. Best of all, fucktards like you and your friends won't be allowed to reproduce. The world will become a beautiful place.
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14-07-2016, 05:11 AM (This post was last modified: 14-07-2016 05:15 AM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: The Great Filter
(14-07-2016 02:08 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  It is a curious question why we don't observe extra solar intelligent technological civilizations. Some have posited that there is probably some filter that prevents intelligent civilizations from existing for very long. Perhaps they all blow themselves up in nuclear wars shortly after developing that technology for instance.

I would like to suggest that it is possible the great filter is birth control. On this planet, in places where people have a choice, they choose not to reproduce in sufficient numbers to sustain the population. A fertility rate of 2.33 or higher is generally needed to sustain a population. The following is a sampling of fertility rates from around the world.

[Image: Total_Fertility_Rate_for_Select_Countries%2C_2010.png]

Below is a graph that includes historical and projected population data for Japan. As Japan goes, so will most of the world I suspect. As you can see in the graph, Japan's population is cratering.

[Image: Japanese_population_chart_1870-2100.png]

Religion is a reason why many people have large families and it is one tool that can get us past this filter. The existence of the human race might very well depend on the existence of religion.

Thanks for proving you more than deserve your MINUS 53 reputation, Blowjob.
"Some" have posited ? Really ? Like your fucking priest ?
Tell him he should stick to molesting little boys, and stop messing with the retarded brains of their great-grandparents, not unlike yourself.
God damn Blowme, you're a stupid fool.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
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14-07-2016, 05:13 AM
RE: The Great Filter
(14-07-2016 02:08 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Religion is a reason why many people have large families and it is one tool that can get us past this filter. The existence of the human race might very well depend on the existence of religion.

Do you care about truth?
Lets say, there definitely are no gods, and lets say religion definitely is increasing birth rates. Would you advertise religion as a means for humanity to pass the "great filter". Or would you rather look for a valid reason to increase birth rates on this planet in general? Like in "not being a fiction"?

Do you care about your fellow humans at all (like a humanist would)?
Religion, christianity in particular, is responsible for those large families not being able to sustain themselves, people produce kids who essentially dont have the means to feed them properly without assistance from the outside. This particularly applies to (religious) 3rd world countries who are in the top ranking spots of any birth rate graph.
So what use would there be in some hardcore *insert your favourite flavour of christianity* society, producing heaps of kids to "pass the filter", while most of the society lives in poverty because families cant feed them? People are more than just numbers, they have actual lifes, you know. But i know this is hard to grasp for someone who thinks he has no responsibilty for his fellow humans and thinks "humanist" is an insult.

Do you think having even bigger populations in societies based on irrationality (religion), who were fighting each other in past times over the most mundane of religious (non) reasons, will result in a lesser risk of extinction by nukes? Like in "the waffle is the flesh of Jesus" or "no, the waffle only represents the body of Jesus", or "Jesus is god" and "no, God is above Jesus".

If the only means for the human race to survive the ages is to believe in falsehoods and to live in delusion, if we as a species have no good reason to survive, why trying to survive at all? The universe doesnt care and we shouldnt be too self-important.

I dont see religion as a good reason at all. What i maybe see is (as a mindset for each individual due to education, im not talking about legislation etc.) trying to accumulate less wealth individually, and focusing more on society as a whole, looking at children (we all have been cheldren ourselves at some point!) as the future of humanity and taking more care of them. Stuff like a "star trek society", where people f.e. dont expect to be paid at all for their service doesnt seem to be so absurd to me in the long run.

Maybe!

Ceterum censeo, religionem delendam esse
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14-07-2016, 05:14 AM
RE: The Great Filter
(14-07-2016 04:29 AM)morondog Wrote:  All of the population die off in Japan is projected. Where'd the graph come from, what happens if we update it with data to the present (it was clearly made circa 2000)?
The source of the graph is shown on the image, but when you visit the link, it says the site was shut down in 2015. The official statistics from the Statistics Bureau of the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications appear to show the same future trends, though. Someone on Wikipedia created a graph based on the Bureau's Excel table and it doesn't look that much different from the one Heywood posted. The cut-off line around the year 2010 marks the change from historical to projected data.

[Image: Japan_Population_by_Age_1920-2010_with_P...o_2060.png]

[Image: 7oDSbD4.gif]
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14-07-2016, 05:50 AM
RE: The Great Filter
The not so great filter.

[Image: Dirty-air-filter.jpg]

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14-07-2016, 06:05 AM
RE: The Great Filter
(14-07-2016 02:08 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  It is a curious question why we don't observe extra solar intelligent technological civilizations. Some have posited that there is probably some filter that prevents intelligent civilizations from existing for very long. Perhaps they all blow themselves up in nuclear wars shortly after developing that technology for instance.

I would like to suggest that it is possible the great filter is birth control. On this planet, in places where people have a choice, they choose not to reproduce in sufficient numbers to sustain the population. A fertility rate of 2.33 or higher is generally needed to sustain a population. The following is a sampling of fertility rates from around the world.

[Image: Total_Fertility_Rate_for_Select_Countries%2C_2010.png]

Below is a graph that includes historical and projected population data for Japan. As Japan goes, so will most of the world I suspect. As you can see in the graph, Japan's population is cratering.

[Image: Japanese_population_chart_1870-2100.png]

Religion is a reason why many people have large families and it is one tool that can get us past this filter. The existence of the human race might very well depend on the existence of religion.

First off, I think you've posted a good subject with graphs and data and all the good stuff people love to see. I also think your post was polite, respectful and well worded.

With that said, I don't agree with the conclusions you drew. As DLJ pointed out, there are some gaps in your logic that I think you should address. Going entirely on my own personal observations here, I also notice that agricultural societies tend to have more children because they need hands to work the fields.

Some religious people have lots of children, but some non-religious people do, too. I don't see the correlation you see.

Most Christians that I encounter are also of the opinion that only their religion is the correct and proper way to live life, so I'm guessing that part of the argument you're trying to make is that large families can be associated with Christianity, not just religion (please correct me if I'm wrong.) Chassidic families within Judaism are specifically aiming for at least 8 kids (and it's not because of a refusal to use birth control, as it is with people of some other religions.)

Anyway, well done on the opening post. I think it's a discussions worth having -mostly because my goal will be to change your views. Tongue
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14-07-2016, 06:23 AM
RE: The Great Filter
(14-07-2016 02:08 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Religion is a reason why many people have large families and it is one tool that can get us past this filter. The existence of the human race might very well depend on the existence of religion.

Sex is why many people have large families.

Birth control is why many people don't. That and not wanting to have to provide for and control seven screaming kids.

Religions -- specifically, very absurd religious prohibitions that don't actually appear in the religious texts but were instead invented from the most absurd of pretexts in the modern era -- are why many people don't use birth control.

The world population is presently growing, very fast, rather than shrinking. We are near, at, or over carrying capacity for our level of technology and infrastructure. Overpopulation is a major issue right now. Underpopulation, at present, is not. Feeding, housing, clothing, educating, and providing health care for all those new babies would be a major challenge, except all those people who want the rest of the world to have new babies don't seem to give much of a damn (beyond the occasional mission to address 1% of the problem) about doing any of that. The ecology we depend on for things like eating and breathing is severely strained by overuse.

And yes, religion has paved the path to this state of affairs in more than one way.

In short, of the two scenarios -- killing ourselves off through no longer reproducing, and killing ourselves off by over-reproducing beyond our environment's carrying capacity -- the first is presently an absurdity and the second is a very urgent reality. SO LET'S IGNORE THAT ONE AND FOCUS ON THE ONE THAT ISN'T A PROBLEM NOW AND LIKELY WON'T BE EVER! Hobo
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