The Great Filter
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15-07-2016, 09:44 PM (This post was last modified: 15-07-2016 09:47 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: The Great Filter
(15-07-2016 08:02 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Atheists do not reproduce in sufficient number to sustain their own population.

Girly and Manly's 4 is more than sufficient to replenish the population. The offspring have already bred.
....
You say some really stupid shit.




#sigh
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15-07-2016, 09:48 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(15-07-2016 09:37 PM)Unbeliever Wrote:  
(15-07-2016 08:06 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Ban contraceptives in Japan and their fertility rate immediately increases.

The population decline in Japan has nothing to do with fertility rates.

What you wrote here is absolute nonsense. The population is declining in Japan because the fertility rate is below 2.1. We can ague why the fertility rate is below 2.1 but to argue that fertility rates have nothing to do with the population decline in Japan is silly...about as silly as arguing whether the earth flat or round.
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15-07-2016, 09:54 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(15-07-2016 09:28 PM)Reltzik Wrote:  Some other intervention... such as atheists and secularists actually looking around at world population (as opposed to, say, the population of a few outliers like Japan), NOTICING it's shrinking... and not just down to sustainable and comfortable levels, but to dangerously low levels... and doing something about it? Like the steps mentioned in Japan to try to move enterprise out of Tokyo and away from the environmental factors that keep people from having children?

Its not just Japan. A lot of other countries have fertility rates which are unable to sustain a population. Japan's is a little more acute because they are an island nation and are not going to be as easily bailed out by an influx of people from the outside.

I do think that as the world's population become less devout, the worlds fertility rate will plummet. This isn't necessarily disturbing for the immeadiate future, but over the long term we certainly want to avoid low fertility rates like this.
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15-07-2016, 09:56 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(15-07-2016 09:48 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  The population is declining in Japan because the fertility rate is below 2.1.

Oh, so this is you using the terms "birth rate" and "fertility rate" interchangeably. I was wondering, because it seemed remarkably incoherent even by your standards.

Regardless, the facts remain unchanged. Japan is not an atheist country and its population decline has nothing to do with atheism or contraceptives.

"Owl," said Rabbit shortly, "you and I have brains. The others have fluff. If there is any thinking to be done in this Forest - and when I say thinking I mean thinking - you and I must do it."
- A. A. Milne, The House at Pooh Corner
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15-07-2016, 09:58 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(15-07-2016 09:54 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Its not just Japan. A lot of other countries have fertility rates which are unable to sustain a population.

True.

None of these are due to availability of contraceptives. Or atheism.

(15-07-2016 09:54 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  I do think that as the world's population become less devout, the worlds fertility rate will plummet.

You have no evidence for this.

"Owl," said Rabbit shortly, "you and I have brains. The others have fluff. If there is any thinking to be done in this Forest - and when I say thinking I mean thinking - you and I must do it."
- A. A. Milne, The House at Pooh Corner
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15-07-2016, 09:59 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(15-07-2016 09:54 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(15-07-2016 09:28 PM)Reltzik Wrote:  Some other intervention... such as atheists and secularists actually looking around at world population (as opposed to, say, the population of a few outliers like Japan), NOTICING it's shrinking... and not just down to sustainable and comfortable levels, but to dangerously low levels... and doing something about it? Like the steps mentioned in Japan to try to move enterprise out of Tokyo and away from the environmental factors that keep people from having children?

Its not just Japan. A lot of other countries have fertility rates which are unable to sustain a population. Japan's is a little more acute because they are an island nation and are not going to be as easily bailed out by an influx of people from the outside.

I do think that as the world's population become less devout, the worlds fertility rate will plummet. This isn't necessarily disturbing for the immeadiate future, but over the long term we certainly want to avoid low fertility rates like this.

THAT'S your takeaway from what I posted?

Even if I were to grant everything you said about a link between secularism and a decline in birth rates, and even if we were to assume it would continue well into a problematic territory... even if I were to grant the entirety of your argument here (and there's no justification for doing so)...

THAT'S STILL BETTER BY FAR THAN WHAT RELIGION DOES.

Reading comprehension. Get it. Use it.
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15-07-2016, 10:08 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(15-07-2016 09:58 PM)Unbeliever Wrote:  
(15-07-2016 09:54 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  I do think that as the world's population become less devout, the worlds fertility rate will plummet.

You have no evidence for this.

Well there is that pesky Pew Research that concludes non religious people have a lower fertility rate that was posted......but don't let that stand in the way of incredulity.
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15-07-2016, 10:36 PM (This post was last modified: 15-07-2016 10:41 PM by Unbeliever.)
RE: The Great Filter
(15-07-2016 10:08 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Well there is that pesky Pew Research that concludes non religious people have a lower fertility rate that was posted......but don't let that stand in the way of incredulity.

Which still does not indicate population decline, just slower growth. And this is even assuming that the numbers given by the Pew study are at all accurate, which even their own report admits is questionable at best:

Since religious change has never previously been projected on this scale, some cautionary words are in order. Population projections are estimates built on current population data and assumptions about demographic trends, such as declining birth rates and rising life expectancies in particular countries. The projections are what will occur if the current data are accurate and current trends continue. But many events – scientific discoveries, armed conflicts, social movements, political upheavals, natural disasters and changing economic conditions, to name just a few – can shift demographic trends in unforeseen ways. That is why the projections are limited to a 40-year time frame, and subsequent chapters of this report try to give a sense of how much difference it could make if key assumptions were different.

Atheism and availability of contraceptives are, even according to your own sources, not the deciding factor in population growth rates.

"Owl," said Rabbit shortly, "you and I have brains. The others have fluff. If there is any thinking to be done in this Forest - and when I say thinking I mean thinking - you and I must do it."
- A. A. Milne, The House at Pooh Corner
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15-07-2016, 10:38 PM (This post was last modified: 15-07-2016 10:45 PM by Heywood Jahblome.)
RE: The Great Filter
(15-07-2016 09:59 PM)Reltzik Wrote:  
(15-07-2016 09:54 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Its not just Japan. A lot of other countries have fertility rates which are unable to sustain a population. Japan's is a little more acute because they are an island nation and are not going to be as easily bailed out by an influx of people from the outside.

I do think that as the world's population become less devout, the worlds fertility rate will plummet. This isn't necessarily disturbing for the immeadiate future, but over the long term we certainly want to avoid low fertility rates like this.

THAT'S your takeaway from what I posted?

Even if I were to grant everything you said about a link between secularism and a decline in birth rates, and even if we were to assume it would continue well into a problematic territory... even if I were to grant the entirety of your argument here (and there's no justification for doing so)...

THAT'S STILL BETTER BY FAR THAN WHAT RELIGION DOES.

Reading comprehension. Get it. Use it.

I think you're one of the good ones and my only real complaint about you is that you are much too verbose. I try to be concise and as such I usually just pick one paragraph and address that point. I don't think people like reading walls of text, I certainly don't. I figure that in a vigorous discussion, every point and counter point is going to get talked about eventually.

While you may find atheism/secularism more conducive to the survival of the species there is a good argument to made that it isn't. As an atheist, you should appreciate the fact that nature doesn't care about right or wrong. If it cares at all, it only cares about what works. If a gazelle flees a lion because it thinks the lion is playing a game of tag it and it should win that game at all cost, it survives just as well as the gazelle which flees the lion to avoid being eaten. It doesn't matter that the gazelle had an incorrect world view. All that mattered was the gazelle acted in a way that enhanced its survival.

Atheism might be right. Maybe there is no God. But even if that were true, it says nothing about whether or not humanity is better off over the long run by following the command to go forth and multiply.
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15-07-2016, 10:41 PM (This post was last modified: 15-07-2016 10:46 PM by Heywood Jahblome.)
RE: The Great Filter
(15-07-2016 10:36 PM)Unbeliever Wrote:  
(15-07-2016 10:08 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Well there is that pesky Pew Research that concludes non religious people have a lower fertility rate that was posted......but don't let that stand in the way of incredulity.

Which still does not indicate population decline. Just slower growth.

You can have momentum in a population that causes the population to increase for a short while even thought the fertility rate is below 2. But if it is below 2 consistently, the population will go extinct. This is inevitable. The math does not lie.
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