The Great Filter
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18-07-2016, 12:48 AM
RE: The Great Filter
(17-07-2016 04:42 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(17-07-2016 01:19 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  You being terse is better than Chas being terse because you can actually make a point.

You can actually say that after I've schooled you repeatedly on evolution and mathematics? You are ridiculous.

Chas, there are people on this forum who I believe are smarter than me and can school me. You're not one of them. In terms of forum member smarts, you're on the short bus.
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18-07-2016, 12:54 AM
RE: The Great Filter
(18-07-2016 12:48 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(17-07-2016 04:42 AM)Chas Wrote:  You can actually say that after I've schooled you repeatedly on evolution and mathematics? You are ridiculous.

Chas, there are people on this forum who I believe are smarter than me and can school me. You're not one of them. In terms of forum member smarts, you're on the short bus.

Blowme. You are not intelligent. No matter what your mummy told you.

NOTE: Member, Tomasia uses this site to slander other individuals. He then later proclaims it a joke, but not in public.
I will call him a liar and a dog here and now.
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18-07-2016, 12:54 AM
RE: The Great Filter
(17-07-2016 02:33 PM)Vosur Wrote:  Have you ever taken a statistics course at university? The reason I ask is because the first lesson my professor hammered into our heads back then was that correlation does not equal causation. What's even more important, though, is that we have examples to the contrary. The Czech Republic has become more secular at a rapid rate in the past twenty years. Curiously enough, their fertility rate during that time has gone up instead of down. How do you explain that development?

Fertility rate is complicated and lots of factors go into it, Its not just secularism. So the fact that it went up a little bit isn't meaningful. If you believe that religious beliefs like birth control is a sin drive fertility rates up then you should also believe that as a population sheds those religious beliefs its fertility rate will go down.

Do You believe that religious beliefs like birth control is a sin drive up fertility rates?
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18-07-2016, 12:59 AM
RE: The Great Filter
(17-07-2016 06:47 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  
(17-07-2016 02:36 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  The math does not lie about this.

No, but people who do math are often damned fine liars.

If the initial population is 2. Those 2 members must replicate 2 replacements to have a stable population. If they replicate 1. When the first 2 die, there will be only one. The population will have decreased.

Nobody is lying about this. With a little thought you can see it is obviously true that unless you have a fertility rate of 2 or greater, the population will decrease eventually to extinction.

The only person who should have trouble grasping this is Chas.
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18-07-2016, 12:38 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(18-07-2016 12:54 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Fertility rate is complicated and lots of factors go into it, Its not just secularism.

...He says, utterly without irony, after spending the entirety of the thread thus far maintaining that secularism results in population decline.

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18-07-2016, 12:50 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(18-07-2016 12:54 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(17-07-2016 02:33 PM)Vosur Wrote:  Have you ever taken a statistics course at university? The reason I ask is because the first lesson my professor hammered into our heads back then was that correlation does not equal causation. What's even more important, though, is that we have examples to the contrary. The Czech Republic has become more secular at a rapid rate in the past twenty years. Curiously enough, their fertility rate during that time has gone up instead of down. How do you explain that development?

Fertility rate is complicated and lots of factors go into it, Its not just secularism. So the fact that it went up a little bit isn't meaningful. If you believe that religious beliefs like birth control is a sin drive fertility rates up then you should also believe that as a population sheds those religious beliefs its fertility rate will go down.

Do You believe that religious beliefs like birth control is a sin drive up fertility rates?

You have already been told that religious women of childbearing age use birth control. Obviously they either don't buy your bullshit that birth control is a sin, or don't care about what you think is a "sin".

YOU have no evidence for what anyone considers a "sin".

You are assuming other religious people buy into your particular religious bullshit.
You have no evidence they do, and in fact there is evidence they don't.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
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18-07-2016, 01:45 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(18-07-2016 12:38 PM)Unbeliever Wrote:  
(18-07-2016 12:54 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Fertility rate is complicated and lots of factors go into it, Its not just secularism.

...He says, utterly without irony, after spending the entirety of the thread thus far maintaining that secularism results in population decline.

Just because decapitation causes death, that doesn't mean cancer doesn't.

Secularism can have an impact on fertility rates. So can child tax credits. One can drive rates down and the other can drive rates up. Where the rate ends up would be an aggregate of these influences.

The problem with Vosur's "refutation" is that he assumes all things are equal between the Czech Republic and its neighbors accept the level of secularism. Of course this assumption isn't true so his refutation fails. His example is not the good natural experiment he thinks it is.
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18-07-2016, 01:48 PM
RE: The Great Filter
In my opinion, the main causes for the lower fertility rates of first world country are the following.

1) Better healthcare system that reduce child mortality, thus reducing the need for larger family to insure the survival of children to adulthood.

2) More productive means of production that doesn't require as much work force to produce the intendent results.

3) Women's becomming active members of the workforce thanks to a capacity to control the number of births.

4) Development of a social network capable of sustaining elders outside of direct family.

5) Urbanisation of the human population causing space issue and local overpopulation issues.

There is of course many local issues that affect this problemaic and they would be far to numerous to name and explain. There is a certain corellation between a drop in religious sentiment and birthrates, but there is very little evidence for a strong direct causation.

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18-07-2016, 02:58 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(18-07-2016 01:45 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  The problem with Vosur's "refutation" is that he assumes all things are equal between the Czech Republic and its neighbors accept the level of secularism. Of course this assumption isn't true so his refutation fails. His example is not the good natural experiment he thinks it is.

The problem with your nonsense is, you forgot to explain what's wrong with Vosur's refutation. You have no measure you can present of secularism in that republic or it's neighbors. Your assertions without evidence are worthless.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
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18-07-2016, 03:00 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(18-07-2016 01:45 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Secularism can have an impact on fertility rates.

Prove it.
You can't.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
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